May 7, 2005

WORLD TRENDS B

A SAMPLE OF THE WITCH=S BREW DRIVING POLITICS

Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
POPULATION Total Increase per year	1950 1950-1951	2,555,361,000 38,000,000	2005 2004-2005	6,446,131,000 73,000,000	152 92
INEQUALITY Life Expectancy at Birth In the Country with the highest Life Expectancy (years) In the Country with the lowest Life Expectancy (years)	1970-1975 1970-1975	74.7 (Sweden) 35.0 (Sierra Leone)	2000-2005 2000-2005	81.6 (Japan) 33.1 (Zimbabwe)	9.2 (-5.4)
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
RADIOACTIVITY Depleted Uranium (DU) (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) In the Civilian Sector (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) In the Military Sector (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) Plutonium Civilian Nuclear Power Plants (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) In the Military (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) Total DU, HEU and Plutonium Total (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents) Total per 100,000 persons (Hiroshima bomb radioactivity equivalents)	1945 1945 1945 1995 1998 1945-1998 1972	0 0 0 802,667 650,160 1,452,827 38	2001 2003 2003 2003 2003 2001-2003 2002	185, 868,140 1,000 37,000 6,401,267 1,051,493 193,358,900 3,105	B B B 698 62 13,209 8,071
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
WARHEADS Number (including in storage) (Hiroshima bomb radiation equivalents) Number (including in storage) per 100,000 persons (Hiroshima bomb radiation equivalents)	1998 1998	604,900 10	2004 2004	663,254 11	10 10
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
FOOD Grain Harvest (kilograms per capita) Area Available for Grain Production (acres per capita) Area Cultivated with Genetically- modified (GM) Crops (acres per capita) Grain Harvest produced with Non- sustainable Water Supplies (percent) Fish Harvest from Aquaculture (farmed fish) (kilograms per capita) Prevalence of Hunger (number hungry on any one day)	1985 (peak) 1950 1996 1950 1994 1995	343 0.57 0.001 ? 3.7 834,000,000	2004 2004 2003 1998 2002 2003	322 0.27 0.03 10 6.4 852,000,000	(-6) (-52) 3,546 B 73 2.2
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
OIL CONSUMPTION (barrels per capita)	1955	1.83	2004	4.31	136
GLOBAL WARMING Global Temperature (average increase in degrees Centigrade per century) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (parts per million by volume) Glacier National Park, United States (number of glaciers) Economic Losses from Weather-related Disasters (2003 dollars per capita)	1900-1975 1850 1850 1980	1 280 150 3.10	1976-2000 2004 2003 2004	3 377 35 16.32	200 35 (-77) 426
RESOURCE DEPLETION All Ecosystems (percent of the 24 Earth life-supporting ecosystems either being degraded or being used unsustainably)	1999	20	2004	60	B
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
GENETIC DIVERSITY Livestock Genetic Diversity (number of breeds) Extinction of Species All Species (number of species becoming extinct per hour) Mammals (percent of species extinct or at various degrees of threat of extinction)	1900 1850 1850	6,700 Minimal Minimal	2003 1988-1998 2004	5,700 9.36 41	(-15) B B
Item	Comparison Year(s)	Data in Comparison Year(s)	Latest Available Year	Data in Latest Available Year(s)	Percent Increase/ (Decrease)
HIV/AIDS Prevalence (number living with HIV per 100,000 persons) Children orphaned by HIV/AIDS	2002 2001	530 11,500,000	2003 2003	603 15,000,000	14 30
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE Assistance given (per person in the donor countries, 2000 US dollars) [as the percentage of the Gross National Income (GNI) of the donor countries]	1990 1990	75 0.33	2001 2001	63 0.22	(-12) (-33)
MILITARY EXPENDITURES (per capita worldwide, 2003 US dollars)	1950	120.14	2003	147.95	23.2

REFERENCES

NOTE

Population Estimates:

All world population estimates, 1945 to 2005, are from:

United States Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, at

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html

POPULATION

United States Bureau of the Census.

INEQUALITY

Life Expectancy at Birth

United Nations Human Development Programme, Human Development Report 2003 B Millennium Development Goals, A Compact among Nations to end Human Poverty, (Oxford University Press, New York, N.Y.), 2003, pp. 262 and 264-265.

RADIOACTIVITY

Depleted Uranium (DU)

Hall, ADepleted Uranium (DU),@ April 30, 2005 (10 pages), p. 2.

The conversion factor is (1,000 / 182.6) =

5.48 kilograms of DU = 1 Hiroshima bomb.

International Depleted Uranium Study Team (IDUST), AProblem Statement,@ reprinted at http://www.idust.net.

Weapons containing DU have been developed and tested near communities across the United States since the 1960's.

Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU)

Goldstein, Steve, AExperts: Program to secure Enriched Uranium >Slow,=@ Philadelphia Inquirer, SunHerald.com, February 10, 2004. Reprinted at

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/news/politics/7915251.htm.

Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is uranium in which the concentration of the isotope U-235 is 20 percent or more. As a practical matter, weapons grade HEU contains more than 90 percent U-235.

In a primitive device, about 50 kilograms of HEU would have the destructive power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Far less would be needed in a sophisticated device.

I have used the conversion for a primitive device B namely that

50 kilograms of HEU = 1 Hiroshima bomb.

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, pp. 80-81.

Plutonium

Hall, Francoise

ANuclear Power B An Infallible Technology for Infallible Humans?@ May 6, 2004 (16 pages).

According to Lloyd Dumas, University of Texas Professor of Political Economy, a typical warhead containing 4.5 kilograms of plutonium represents the equivalent of 18.06 Hiroshima bombs. Therefore, (4.5 / 18.06) =

0.25 kilograms of plutonium = 1 Hiroshima bomb.

ASilent Omnicide B The Destruction of the Human Gene Pool,@ April 16, 2005, corrected April 26, 2005 (13 pages).

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 81.

Total DU, HEU and Plutonium

Total

References as above.

Total per 100,000 persons

United States Bureau of the Census.

For the denominators, I have used the 1972 world population as the mid-way point between 1945 and 1998; and the 2002 world population as the mid-way point between 2001 and 2003.

WARHEADS

Number (including in storage)

Flaherty, Ted, Center for Defense Information, ACurrent World Nuclear Arsenals,@ updated January 2, 1997.

http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/nukestab.html.

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, pp. 80 and 81.

In 2003, the number of nuclear warheads is as follows:

United States 15,550

Russia 20,000 (of which 10,000 are in storage)

China 400

France 350

United Kingdom 200

Israel 150

Pakistan 40

India 35

Total 36,725

If each of these 36,725 nuclear warheads contained a typical 4.5 kilograms of plutonium, their total is the equivalent of (36,725 x 18.06) = 663,254 Hiroshima bombs.

Number (including in storage) per 100,000 persons

United States Bureau of the Census.

FOOD

Grain Harvest

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 23.

Area Available for Grain Production

Hall, Francoise, AThe Third World War B Initial Stages: The Free-fall of Resources ad the Poor,@ April 8, 2005 (11 pages), p. 5.

Worldwide, in 1950, the area available for grain production was 0.23 hectare (0.23 / 0.405) = 0.568 acre. In 2000, it was 0.11 hectare (0.11 / 0.405) = 0.272 acre.

Area Cultivated with Genetically-modified (GM) Crops

Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnolgy, AFact Sheet: Genetically-modified Crops in the United States,@ (11 Pages), p. 2. Reprinted at

http://pewagbiotech.org/resources/factsheets/display.php3?FactsheetID=2

Genetically-modified (GM) crops were first introduced for commercial production in 1996. Worldwide, in 1996, 4,200,000 acres were planted with such crops B (4,200,000 / 5,770,701,020) = 0.000,728 acre per capita.

Worldwide, in 2003, GM crops were planted on 167,200,000 acres B (167,200,000 / 6,299,763,405) = 0.026,541 acre per capita. The increase in acreage from 1996 to 2003 was, therefore, (0.026,541 - 0.000,728) / 0.000,728 = 3,546 percent.

United States Bureau of the Census.

Grain Harvest produced with Non-sustainable Water Supplies

Postel, Sandra, Global Water Policy Project, Amherst, MA, Pillar of Sand B Can the Irrigation Miracle last? (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 1999; cited in Maude Barlow and Tony Clarke, Blue Gold B The Fight to stop the Corporate Theft of the World=s Water (The New Press, New York, N.Y.), 2002, p. 60.

Postel estimated that about 180,000,000,000 kilograms of grain, approximately 10 percent of the global harvest, was being produced with the use of water supplies that were not being replenished.

Fish Harvest from Aquaculture

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 27.

United States Bureau of the Census.

Prevalence of Hunger

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 22.

OIL CONSUMPTION

Hall, Francoise, AEnergy Today,@ July 10, 2004 (20 pages), p. 6.

Heinberg, Richard, The Party=s Over B Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (New Society, Gabriola Island, BC, Canada), 2003, p. 112.

As a point of comparison for Mastny=s data, Heinberg estimates that in 2000, the global consumption of conventional crude oil was 26,000,000,000 barrels.

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 31.

Mastny quotes world oil consumption as being 694,000,000,000 kilograms in 1955; and 3,760,000,000,000 kilograms in 2004. This latter amount equals (7.3 / 1,000 x 3,760,000,000,000) = 27,448,000,000 barrels.

AOil Industry Conversions,@ at http://www.eppo.go.th/ref/UNIT-OIL.html.

According to oil industry conversions, 1,000 kilograms of crude oil are equal to approximately 7.3 barrels of crude oil, assuming a specific gravity of 33 API. Therefore, in 1955, world oil consumption was (694,000,000,000 / 2,779,929,940) / 1,000 x 7.3 = 1.83 barrels per person. In 2004, it was (3,760,000,000,000 / 6,372,797,742) / 1,000 x 7.3 = 4.31 barrels per person.

United States Bureau of the Census.

GLOBAL WARMING

Global Temperature

Hall, Francoise, AGlobal Warming B The Real, Implacable but Unmentionable Enemy of the United States?@ February 26, 2005 (23 pages).

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 40.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Hall, Francoise, AGlobal Warming B The Real, Implacable but Unmentionable Enemy of the United States?@ February 26, 2005 (23 pages), pp. 1 and 17.

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 41.

Glacier National Park

Hall, Francoise, AGlobal Warming B The Real, Implacable but Unmentionable Enemy of the United States?@ February 26, 2005 (23 pages), p. 2.

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 89.

Economic Losses from Weather-related Disasters

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 51.

United States Bureau of the Census.

RESOURCE DEPLETION

All Ecosystems

Hall, Francoise, AThe Third World War B Initial Stages: The Free-fall of Resources and the Poor,@ April 8, 2005 (11 pages).

1999

Wackernagel, Mathis, et al, ATracking the Ecological Overshoot of Human Economy,@ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 9, 2002, pp. 9266-9271; cited in Lester Brown, Plan B B Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (Earth Policy Institute) (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2003, pp. 4 and 95.

Wackernagel and his team concluded that humanity=s collective demands first surpassed the earth=s regenerative capacity around 1980. He estimated that by 1999, human demands exceeded that capacity by 20 percent.

I have not used this study as the basis for a calculation of the percent increase in resource depletion from 1999 to 2004 because Wackernagel=s study and that of the World Bank in 2004, may not be strictly comparable.

2004

World Bank and the United Nations University, Institute of Advanced Studies, AExperts warn Ecosystem Changes will continue to worsen, putting Global Development Goals at Risk,@ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, London, UK, March 30, 2005, 3 pages.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Article.aspx?id=58.

A[The study] reveals that approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth B such as fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests B are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years@ (p. 1).

A... the experts warn that the ongoing degradation of 15 of the 24 ecosystems examined, is increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt changes that will seriously affect human well-being. This includes the emergence of new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, creation of >dead zones= along the coasts, the collapse of fisheries, and shifts in regional climate@ (p. 1).

A[There is] a substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, with some 10 to 30 percent of the mammal, bird and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction... Both capture fisheries and fresh water are now well beyond levels that can sustain current, much less future, demands... Changes in ecosystems such as deforestation influence the abundance of human pathogens, such as malaria and cholera... The world=s poorest people suffer most from ecosystem changes. Regions facing significant ecosystem degradation are also facing [the greatest socio-economic challenges] B sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, some regions in Latin America, and parts of South and Southeast Asia@ (pp. 1-2).

GENETIC DIVERSITY

Livestock Genetic Diversity

Hall, Francoise, AThe World our Children will die in,@ March 12, 2005 (11 pages), pp. 1 and 3.

Extinction of species

All Species:

Hall, Francoise, AAsk the Mosquitoes,@ March 19, 2005 (13 pages), p. 7.

According to Harvard University Professor Edward O. Wilson, the rate of species extinction during the decade 1988-1998, was on the average 0.6 percent a year. With a total number of species estimated at 13,620,000, the number of species becoming extinct is [(0.6 / 100) x 13,620,000] / 365 / 24 = 9.3 species per hour.

Mammals:

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, pp. 86-87.

Globally, a total of 4,853 mammal species has been identified. Excluding the 380 species for which insufficient data are available, the total is 4,473. In 2004, the status of species at various degrees of threat of extinction, was as follows:

Totally extinct 73

Extinct in the wild only 4

Critically endangered 162

Endangered 352

Vulnerable 587

Lower risk/Conservation dependent 64

Near-threatened 587

Total 1,829

Therefore, the species which are either extinct or at various degrees of threat of extinction, represent 1,829 / 4,473 = 41 percent of the mammalian species on Earth for which data are sufficient to draw a conclusion.

HIV/AIDS

Prevalence

Hall, Francoise, AThe World our Children will die in,@ March 12, 2005 (11 pages), p. 3.

United States Bureau of the Census.

Children orphaned by HIV/AIDS

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 68.

FINANCIAL AID TO THE DEVELOPING WORLD

Hall, Francoise, AThe World our Children will die in,@ March 12, 2005 (11 pages), p. 2.

Renner, Michael, Hilary French and Erik Assadourian, State of the World, 2005 B A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, pp. 16 and 187.

In 2002 dollars, financial aid to the developing world declined as follows:

1992 $73,000,000,000

2002 $57,000,000,000

United Nations Human Development Programme, Human Development Report 2003 B Millennium Development Goals, A Compact among Nations to end Human Poverty, (Oxford University Press, New York, N.Y.), 2003, pp. 146, 260 and 290.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Development Assistance Committee, reports the following aid given by its 22 member countries. The figures exclude $1,176,000,000 of known aid given by 11 non-member countries, and an unknown amount of aid given by China.

Official Development Assistance

Year Total Assistance Percent Assistance as Percent

Assistance per capita in Decrease Percentage of Decrease Disbursed Donor Country 1990- Gross National 1990-

(2000 US$) 2001 Income (GNI) 2001

of Donor Countries

1990 $57,600,000,000 75 0.33

2001 $54,000,000,000 63 (-16) 0.22 (-33)

___________________________________

MILITARY EXPENDITURES

Mastny, Lisa, Vital Signs, 2005 B The Trends that are shaping our Future (Worldwatch Institute), (W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005, p. 77.

United States Bureau of the Census.

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