March 12, 2005

 

                                    THE WORLD OUR CHILDREN WILL DIE IN

 

1988

Loss of Livestock Genetic Diversity

Number of cattle and poultry breeds in 1900           6,700 breeds

Number which have disappeared since then (p. 65)       700 breeds (10 percent)

 

1994

Decline of Pollinators

Domestic honeybees have lost 1/3 of their hives

worldwide.  Wild honeybee species are also

declining due to the use of pesticide and

insecticide, development, and invasive species

(p. 64).

 

1996

Loss of Agricultural Crop Diversity

Loss of agricultural crop genetic diversity

since 1900 (p. 64)                                                                   75 percent 

 

1999

Living in Poverty

World population (US Census)                              6,004,200,000

Number of people living on less than $2

per day (p. 46)                                           2,800,000,000    (47 percent)

 

2000

Dying in Poverty

World population (US Census)                              6,079,600,000

Number who died from contaminated water/

lack of adequate sanitation (p. 5)                   3,600,000     (0.06 percent)

 

For Comparison: Number killed in armed conflicts

during 2000 (p. 5)                                                            300,000      (0.01 percent)

 

 

 

 

 

2002

Communicable Diseases

World population (US Census)                            6,226,900,000

Deaths from major communicable diseases

(percent of world population)

Respiratory Infections                                  4,000,000       (0.07 percent)

HIV/AIDS                                                      2,800,000       (0.05 percent)

Diarrhea                                                         1,800,000       (0.03 percent)

Tuberculosis                                                   1,600,000      (0.03 percent)

Malaria (p. 49)                                               1,300,000       (0.02 percent)

Total                                                              11,500,000       (0.2 percent)

 

For Comparison:

World population 1950 (US Census)                   2,555,400,000

 

Yearly average from 1900-1999:

Killed in battle                                                 4,200,000       (0.2 percent)                                       Genocide, politicide and mass murder,

excluding war dead (Charny)            19,400,000

Total                                                              23,600,000       (0.9 percent)

 

Spread of Serious Diseases

Cholera

Malaria          

Tuberculosis

Yellow Fever (pp. 43 and 48).

 

Threatening Pandemic of Zoonosis

That year (2002), severe acute respiratory

syndrome (SARS) jumps from animals to

humans.  Within six months, it spreads to

29 countries, killing 800 (pp. 42 and 47).

 

Financial Aid to the Developing World

1992 (in 2002 dollars)                                      $73,000,000,000

2002 (in 2002 dollars) (p. 16)                          $57,000,000,000 (78 percent                                                                                                                          of the aid given in 1992)                                                                                                                             

Net Financial Outflow from the Developing World

Net outflow from developing countries

(dollars per year, average 1994-2002)

(p. 16)                                                               $70,000,000,000 (23 percent                                                                                                                           more than the aid received)

 

2003

Loss of Livestock Genetic Diversity

Number of cattle and poultry breeds in 1988                 6,000 breeds

Number which have disappeared since then

(p. 65)                                                                        300       (5 percent)

 

Natural Disasters

World population (US Census)                            6,299,800,000

Number who died from natural disasters,

2003 (p. 8)                                                   250,000,000       (4 percent B

                                                                                                                 3 times the number in                                                                                                                           1990)

 

HIV/AIDS

World population (US Census)                            6,299,800,000

Number living with HIV (pp. 29 and 45)                  38,000,000       (0.6 percent B

     5 million more than in                                                                                                                          2002)

Number who died from HIV-related

infections (pp. 27 and 50)                               3,000,000       (0.05 percent)                

Global Warming

World population (US Census)                            6,299,800,000

Number who died from the ancillary effects

of global warming (p. 113)                               160,000       (0.01 percent)

 

Production of Ammunition

World population (US Census)                            6,299,800,000

Number of rounds of military-caliber small

arms ammunition produced (p. 125)    12,000,000,000 rounds (2                                                                                                                                 bullets per person on                                                                                                                          earth)   

     

Fissile Material Stockpiles

Plutonium and highly enriched uranium

(military and civilian reactors)                            3,700 tons in 60                                                                                                                                    countries, and

     expanding.

 

Number of nuclear bombs equivalents

(p. 12)                                                                  Hundreds of thousands

 

 

2004

Hunger

World population (US Census)                                  6,372,800,000

Number of people hungry (pp. 7 and 63)                     800,000,000 (13 percent)

 

Genetic Engineering

In the United States, more than 2/3 of

conventional crops are contaminated

with genetically modified material

(pp. 70-71).

 

Genetically modified organisms threaten

to wipe out native and wild populations

of corn, rice, wheat, fish, and other

sources of food (p. 70).

 

Desertification

World population (US Census)                                  6,372,800,000

Number threatened by desertification

(p. 8)                                                                  135,000,000 (2 percent)

 

Human Trafficking

World Population (US Census)                                  6,372,800,000

Number of people sold internationally

(p. 20)                                                                       700,000 (0.01 percent)

 

A Threatening Ice Age

A study outsourced by the Pentagon

predicts that an abrupt ice-age in

North America and Europe could

wreak anarchy on the planet, as

countries develop a nuclear threat to

defend dwindling food, water and

energy supplies (p. 71).

 

Military Expenditures

Military expenditures of the human

race (p. 15)                                            $1,000,000,000,000

Military expenditures of the United

States (p. 172)                                           $410,000,000,000 (41 percent)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 (continued)

Threatening Pandemics of Zoonoses

Animal Viruses spreading to humans:

West Nile virus (from 200 species of birds,

reptiles and mammals in the United

States alone) (p. 47)

Avian Flu virus (from chickens) (pp. 47 and 68)

Swine Flu virus (from swine) (p. 48)

Nipah virus (from bats and pigs) (p. 69)

 

Animal Prions spreading to humans:

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy prion

(mad cow disease, from ruminants) (p. 69)

Bovine Amyloidotic Spongiform Encephalopathy prion

(BASE, from cows) (pp. 69-70)

 

Animal Virus which could spread to humans:

Ebola virus (from apes) (p. 47).

 

Radioactivity

Plutonium particles from the 1954 Bikini Atoll

nuclear tests are accumulating in Japanese Bay

(pp. xxvii and 182).    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 (continued)

Military Expenditures

Total, world (dollars)                                    $1,000,000,000,000                      

 

                       For Comparison: Estimated cost (and percent

of world military expenditures) of achieving

the following:

*          Improved public health leading to

a saving of 120,000,000 lives

between 2000 and 2015 (pp. 43-44)       $38,000,000,000        (4 percent)

 

*          Provide clean water

     and sewage systems                         $37,000,000,000        (4 percent)

 

*          Reducing by half the number of

     people who are hungry                     $24,000,000,000      (2 percent)

 

*          Preventing soil erosion                            $24,000,000,000      (2 percent)

 

*          Providing reproductive health

     care for all women                              $12,000,000,000      (1 percent)

 

*          Eradicating illiteracy                                $5,000,000,000       (0.5 percent)

 

*          Providing immunization for every

     child in the developing world

     (pp. 15-16)                                           $3,000,000,000        (0.3 percent)

 

Total                                                                  $143,000,000,000        (14 percent)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

For Comparison B The Iraq War:

World population                                                            6,466,100,000

 

Number of Coalition troop deaths as of 03/10/05

(CNN)                                                                               1,685               

Number of Iraqi civilian deaths as of 02/29/05

(Iraq Body Count) *                                                        17,370

 

Total                                                                                            19,055     (0.0003 percent)

2007

Oil Production

Global oil production begins to decline

(pp. 104 and 106).

 

2015                                                                                                               

Water Stress

World population (US Census)                           7,187,100,000      

Number living in water-stressed

countries (p. 6)                                       2,900,000,000     (40 percent)                                

2025

Water Stress

World population (US Census)                           7,871,100,000         

Number living in water-stressed

conditions (p. 62)                                    2,900,000,000    (37 percent)

 

Energy Demand

Global energy demand is 54 percent

more than in 2004 (p. xxvi).

 

2050                                                                     

Environmental Refugees

World population (US Census)                           9,190,300,000

Number of refugees due to

environmental disruption (p. 40)                150,000,000    (2 percent)

 

Extinction of Species

Global warming of 2-6 degrees

Centigrade has annihilated 18-35

percent of the world=s species (p. xxv).

 

*          A study published in The Lancet estimates the number at over 100,000.


 

                                                           MY CONCLUSIONS

 

People live in poverty; die of easily and cheaply preventable diseases; the diversity of pollinators, agricultural crops and livestock is declining; old and new communicable diseases are spreading; the effects of global warming worsen the already present shortage of food and fresh water; genetically engineered organisms threaten all natural species, the demand for oil is rising even as world peak production is at hand, and population growth, particularly among the poor, continues to be sizeable;

 

The net flow of wealth continues to be from the poor segment of humanity to the rich segment of humanity;

 

Military expenditures, including for nuclear weapons and small arms, dwarf the estimated costs of alleviating the suffering of the poor;

 

The United States B which accounts for 41 percent of the world=s military expenditures B has:

Announced that Ato forestall or prevent... hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act pre-emptively@ (National Security Strategy, 2002) (pp. 14, 15 and 172),

 

Reversed or raised its opposition to several multilateral treaties, such as

The Kyoto Protocol (Gelbspan, pp. 41, 60, 95 and 103),

The Biodiversity Treaty(Gelbspan, p. 99),

The International Criminal Court (p. 14),

The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (p. 14),

Inspection and verification provisions for a treaty banning the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons (p. 14),

Verification for the Biological and Toxin Weapons Treaty (p. 14),

The Ban on Anti-personnel Land Mines (Gelbspan, p. 99),

 

Reversed its policy of no first use, including for non-nuclear countries (Caldicott),

 

Predicts, through the Pentagon, that an abrupt ice-age in North America and Europe could significantly decrease the Earth=s carrying capacity for humans, and wreak anarchy, as countries use nuclear power to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies (p. 71);

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And yet, Renner et al do not draw the seemingly obvious conclusion that an apocalyptic period of great chaos and mortality is probably coming soon, and that the United States plans to survive, even if it means using the last drop of oil and using nuclear weapons, and even if it means permanent damage to humanity as we know it today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                     References

 

Unless otherwise noted, all page numbers refer to:

Renner, Michael et al, State of the World 2005 B Redefining Global Security, A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society (W. W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005.

 

Other References:

Caldicott, Helen, AFour Minutes to Midnight,@ interview by Bonnie Faulkner at the end of 2004, TUC Radio, February 25, 2005.

 

CNN, War in Iraq, U.S. and Coalition Casualties:

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/iraq/forces/casualties/

 

Gelbspan, Ross, Boiling Point B How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists are fueling the Climate Crisis, and what we can do to avert Disaster (Basic Books/Perseus, New York, N.Y.), 2004.

 

Iraq Body Count B The Worldwide Update of Reported Civilian Deaths in the Iraq War and Occupation: http://www.iraqbodycount.net/

 

Roberts, Les et al, AMortality before and after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey,@ The Lancet, Vol. 364, No. 9448, 20 November, 2004.

If the excess civilian deaths of Amore than 100,000@ is used, the number killed in Iraq would be 101,685, or 0.01 percent of the world population.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rummel, R. J., in Israel Charny ( Ed.), Encyclopedia of Genocide, Volumes 1 and 2 (ABC-CLIO, Santa Barbara, CA), (by the Institute on the Holocaust and Genocide, Jerusalem), 1999, pp. 24-25.

Rummel estimates the average number of battle deaths during the 20th century as 4,195,402 yearly, and the average number of people killed through democide (genocide, politicide and mass murder, excluding war dead) as 19,448,506 yearly.

 

The total of these deaths is considerably more than the average of 1,100,000 Acombatants and civilians@ killed yearly during all the wars of the 20th century,  quoted by Dennis Pirages in Michael Renner et al, p. 43.                

 

Pirages estimates 15,400,000 killed annually from communicable diseases Anow@ (let us assume 2002).  Using Rummel=s figures, this is 3.7 times as many as the average yearly number of battle deaths during the 20th century, and 79 percent of the average yearly number of people killed through democide during the 20th century.

 

United States Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                           ***