April 8, 2005
THE THIRD WORLD WAR B INITIAL STAGES:
THE FREE-FALL OF RESOURCES AND THE POOR
HUMAN DEPLETION OF THE EARTH
1999 Human claims on the earth exceed its regenerative capacity by 20 percent (Wackernagel, cited in Plan B, p. 95).
2004 Human claims on the earth exceed its
regenerative capacity by 60 percent (World Bank, p. 1).
WATER
It takes 1,000 tons of water to produce one ton of grain,
but only 14 tons of water to produce a ton of steel. Importing grain, therefore, is the most
efficient way to import water. A fight
for grain looms on the world market (Plan B, pp. 24 and 35; Outgrowing the
Earth, pp. 10 and 111; Reader, p. 17).
Glaciers melting
Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia: In
Peru (population 26,800,000 in 2002), Ecuador (population 12,800,000 in 2002)
and Bolivia (population 8,600,000 in 2002), the melting of Andean glaciers
threatens the supply of household and irrigation water. Since 1995, the rate of
retreat of the Qori Kalis glacier has doubled every three years. It is predicted are that 80 percent of
South American glaciers will disappear by 2015 (United Nations Development,
pp. 153-154; Plan B, p. 96; NASA, note 27, cited in Plan B, p. 70).
Rivers disappearing
China: In China
(population 1,294,900,000 in 2002), the Yellow River not only has failed
to reach the sea for at least part of the year, almost every year since 1985,
but sometimes, it has failed to reach Shandong, the last province through which
it flows before reaching the Yellow Sea (United Nations Development, p. 153;
Plan B, pp. 24, 34 and 37).
India and Bangladesh: In India (population 1,049,500,000 in 2002) and Bangladesh (population 143,800,000 in 2002), the Ganges is reduced to a trickle by the time it reaches the Bay of Bengal (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, p. 24).
United States: In
the United States (population 291,000,000 in 2002), the Colorado River
is drained dry before it reaches the Gulf of California (United Nations
Development, p. 152; Plan B, p. 33).
Pakistan: In Pakistan (population 149,900,000 in 2002), the Indus is reduced to a trickle by the time it reaches the Arabian Sea (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 24 and 35).
Egypt: In Egypt (population 70,500,000 in 2002), the Nile is reduced to a trickle by the time it reaches the Mediterranean Sea. The country imports 40 percent of the grain it consumes (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 14, 24 and 38).
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan: In Uzbekistan (population 25,700,000 in 2002) and Turkmenistan (population 4,800,000 in 2002), the Amu-Dar=ya, one of the two rivers feeding the Aral Sea, now fails to reach Sea (United Nations Development, pp. 153-154; Plan B, p. 24).
Lakes drying up
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: In Uzbekistan (population 25,700,000 in 2002) and Kazakhstan (population 15,500,000 in 2002), the Aral Sea has lost 83 percent of its original volume, replenished now only by the diminished flow of the Syr Darya, the Amu-Dar=ya no longer reaching it. The higher salt concentration in the remaining Sea has killed fisheries and the exposed bed of the Sea engenders salt storms. The region also suffers from sand-storms (United Nations Development, pp. 153 and 154; Plan B, pp. 34 and 107).
Iran: In Iran (population 68,100,000 in 2002), Lake Hamoun, once covering an area of 4,000 square kilometers, is now dry (Plan B, p. 34).
Aquifers diminishing
China: In China (population 1,294,900,000 in 2002), the fossil B and therefore, non-renewable B aquifer under the North China Plain, is declining at the rate of 2 meters a year (United Nations Development, p. 153; Plan B, pp. 26 and 32; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 10; Reader, p. 40).
India: In India
(population 1,049,500,000 in 2002), water tables are falling. In the Punjab and Haryana, they are
falling at the rate of up to one meter per year (United Nations
Development, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 9-10, 19,
25-26, 28-29 and 40; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 100-101).
United States: In the United States (population 291,000,000 in 2002), the fossil B and therefore, non-renewable B Ogallala Aquifer, under the Great Plains, is being depleted (Plan B, pp. 26 and 32).
Pakistan: In
Pakistan (population 149,900,000 in 2002), the aquifers are diminishing (United
Nations, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 10, 26).
Mexico: In Mexico
(population 102,000,000 in 2002), a third of the water consumed comes from
underground, 51 percent of this water deriving from diminishing aquifers. The water table is falling by 2.6 meters
per year (Plan B, pp. 26 and 32; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 101; Reader, p.
41).
Iran: In Iran (population 68,100,000 in 2002), a third of the country=s grain harvest is irrigated by diminishing aquifers. Before 2001, the water table was falling at the rate of 2.8 meters per year. In 2001, it fell by 8 meters. The country imports 40 percent of its grain (Plan B, pp. 14, 26, 30 and 38; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 101; Reader, p. 39).
FOOD
World Grain Harvests
World grain production is a basic indicator of dietary adequacy at the individual level and overall food security at the global level. In 2002, world population was 6,225,000,000 (United Nations Development, p. 155; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 4).
World:
1. Unsustainable World Harvest: Of the total world grain harvest, 8 percent is produced with water the use of which is unsustainable (Plan B, p. 93).
2. Deficient World Harvest: The shortfalls in world grain harvest in 2002 and 2003 B shortfalls of nearly 100,000,000 tons B were the largest on record (Plan B, pp. 6 and 7; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 4-5, 60 and 177; Reader, p. 95):
Year Harvest Consumption Deficit Percent
(tons) (tons) (tons) Deficit
1950 640,000,000 B B B
1976 1,340,000,000 B B B
1996 1,800,000,000 (a) B B B
1997 1,880,000,000 B B B
1998 1,800,000,000 (a) B B B
1999 1,800,000,000 (a) B B B
2000 1,855,000,000 B Deficit B
2001 1,853,000,000 1,893,000,000 40,000,000 2
2002 1,807,000,000 1,907,000,000 100,000,000 5
2003 1,841,000,000 1,941,000,000 100,000,000 5
2004 1,965,000,000 1,924,000,000 No deficit B
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(a) Approximate figure.
3. Declining World per capita Harvest (Plan B, p. 99; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 5):
Year Grain Harvest
(Kilograms per capita)
1950 250
1984 339 (peak)
2002 290 (lowest since 1976)
2004 308
4. Low World Grain Reserves: As consumption exceeded production for four consecutive years B 2000 through 2003 B world grain reserves declined to their lowest level since 1975 (Plan B, p. 99; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 4-5).
5. Declining World Area for Grain Production: The world area available for crops has halved in 50 years (Plan B, p. 53; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 26-27):
Year Area Available for Area per capita
Grain Production
(hectares) (hectares)
1950 587,000,000 0.23 (a)
1981 732,000,000 (peak) B
2000 B 0.11 (a)
2002 647,000,000 B
2004 670,000,000 B
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(a) One hectare is 9,993 square meters. Therefore, 0.23 hectare is 2,298 square meters and 0.11 hectare is 1,099 square meters. This latter area B a square 33 meters (36 yards) to the side B is half the size of a building lot in an affluent U.S. suburb.
China: In China (population 1,294,900,000 in 2002), the grain harvest has been insufficient to meet demand (United Nations, p. 153; Plan B, pp. xvi, 27 and 29; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 15, 20, 133, 140 and 147):
Year Harvest Consumption Deficit Percent
(tons) (tons) (tons) Deficit
1950 90,000,000 B B B
1998 392,000,000 (peak) B B B
2003 322,000,000 (a) B 56,000,000 17
2004 343,000,000 B 35,000,000 10
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(a) The decline of 70,000,000 tons from 1998 to 2003, exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada. It equals the combined grain exports of Canada Australia and Argentina.
World Fish Catch
World Fisheries depleted:
1. In 2002, 70 to 75 percent of all fisheries were being fished at or beyond sustainability, some to the point of collapse (United Nations Food and Agriculture, cited in Plan B, p. 94 and Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 47-48).
2. Between 2050 and 2000, 90 percent of the world stocks of the larger predatory species B including cod, halibut, tuna, swordfish and marlin B disappeared (Myers and Worm, cited in Plan B, p. 94 and Outgrowing the Earth, p. 48).
Canada: In Canada (population 31,300,000 in 2002), the cod fishery collapsed in the early 1990's (United Nations Development, p. 152; Plan B, p. 6; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 9 and 48).
Europe: In Europe,
cod fisheries are in decline, approaching a free-fall (Outgrowing the Earth, p.
48).
United States: In
the United States (population 291,000,000 in 2002), fisheries off the coast of
New England have failed (Outgrowing the Earth, p. 48).
SOIL
Eroding Soils
World: A third of the earth=s crop land is losing topsoil through erosion faster than new soil is forming, thereby reducing the inherent productivity of the land. Where losses are heavy, productive land turns into wasteland or desert. The over-cutting of trees, over-grazing by animals, and over-plowing for agriculture, are all contributing to the loss of productive land (Plan B, pp. 43 and 47).
Desertification
China: China (population 1,294,900,000 in 2002), is facing the following (United Nations Development, p. 153):
1. Mega-Dust Storms: On April 5, 2001, a dust storm originating in northwestern China and Mongolia, measured 1,800 kilometers East to West (the distance from Maine to Montana in the U.S.), 1,200 kilometers North to South (the distance from Lake Erie to Florida in the U.S.), and carried up to 100,000,000 tons of topsoil. In the United States, the storm produced a blanket of dust from Arizona north to the Canadian border. In Colorado, dust was detected at an altitude of 37,000 feet. China has had other major storms, one, in March 2002, which also affected the U.S. (Plan B, pp. 6, 12, 44 and 46; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 80; Reader, p. 8).
2. More Frequent Dust Storms: Major dust storms within China have increased in frequency, as follows (Plan B, p. 98; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 136; Reader, p. 13):
Year Number of Dust Storms
1950 - 1959 5
1960 - 1969 8
1970 - 1979 13
1980 - 1989 14
1990 - 1999 23
2000 - 2010 100 (projected) (a)
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The projection is on the basis of the number of storms
in 2000 and 2001, which totaled 20.
Nigeria: In Nigeria
(population 120,900,000 in 2002), the northern region is losing 351,000
hectares (3,500,000,000 square meters) of crop land and grass land yearly to
desertification (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 47 and 105; Outgrowing the Earth, pp. 28 and
87).
Iran: In Iran (population
68,100,000 in 2002), sand storms have buried 124 villages in the southeastern
province Sistan-va-Baluchestan. In the
vicinity of Damavand, in the Elburz Mountains, north of Tehran, some 88
villages have been abandoned because of spreading deserts and a lack of water. The total number of villages in the country
which have been abandoned for these reasons may number in the thousands
(United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, pp. 47 and 102; Outgrowing the
Earth, p. 86).
Kenya: In Kenya
(population 31,500,000 in 2002), up to a third of the country=s inhabitants are affected by
desertification (Plan B, p. 47).
Algeria: Algeria (population 31,300,000 in 2002) is facing desertification in the south of the country (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, p. 46).
Afghanistan: In
Afghanistan (population 22,930,000 in 2002), the Rigestan Desert is migrating
westward, encroaching on agricultural areas.
Up to 100 villages have been submerged by windblown dust and sand
(United Nations Development, p. 250; Plan B, p. 47).
RAIN FORESTS
Indonesia: In Indonesia (population 217,100,000 in 2002), the country=s forest cover declined from 162,000,000 to 98,000,000 hectares from 1950 to 1999 B an average rate of 1,300,000 hectares per year (13,000,000,000 square meters per year). During those years, the forest cover was reduced by 40 percent. Since 2000, the forest cover has been declining even more rapidly B at the rate of 2,000,000 hectares a year (20,000,000,000 square meters per year) (United Nations Development, p. 154; Plan B, p. 97; Reader, p. 226).
Philippines: In the Philippines (population 78,600,000 in 2002), the country=s forest cover has been reduced from its previous 16,000,000 hectares to now less than 700,000 hectares B a 96 percent decline (United Nations Development, p. 153; Reader, p. 227).
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Sub-Saharan Africa: In sub-Saharan Africa (population 641,000,000 in 2002), life expectancy has decreased from 62 to 46 years (United Nations Development, p. 155; Plan B, pp. 5, 8 and 81; Outgrowing the Earth, p. 22).
The prevalence of HIV infection in countries with more than 10,000,000 inhabitants and in which HIV infection affects more than 10 percent of adults, is as follows (United Nations Development, pp. 154-155; UNAIDS, cited in Reader, p. 176):
Country (a) Population Adult Population Infected
(Percent)
(2002) (2000)
Ethiopia 69,000,000 11
South Africa 45,000,000 20
Kenya 32,000,000 14
Mozambique 19,000,000 13
Cote d=Ivoire 16,000,000 12
Zimbabwe 13,000,000 25
Malawi 12,000,000 16
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(a) All of these countries are in the United Nations low human development category, except for South Africa which is in the medium human development category (United Nations Development, pp. 154-155).
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A[The study] reveals that approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth B such as fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests B are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years@ (p. 1).
A... the experts warn that the ongoing degradation of 15 of the 24 ecosystems examined, is increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt changes that will seriously affect human well-being. This includes the emergence of new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, creation of >dead zones= along the coasts, the collapse of fisheries, and shifts in regional climate@ (p. 1).
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