August 17, 2010
The Faustian Bargain
Minutes
It takes only minutes of driving time to burn 3.8 liters (1 gallon) of gasoline, thus
Emitting 9.9 kilograms (20 pounds) of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere.1
Years
In 2009, humanity emitted 31.3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, 37 percent
More than it emitted in 1990, the baseline year for the Kyoto Climate Protocol.2
Hundreds of Years
During the century and a half since Edwin Drake struck oil in the United States,
Humanity has released into the atmosphere, from the burning of fossil fuels,
A total of 1,100 billion tons of carbon dioxide. In the past several decades,
The rate has been 22 billion tons per year, of which the ocean has absorbed a third.
At present, the atmosphere contains 734 billion tons more CO2 than it did in 1750.
Our pulse of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will only be centuries long.
Business-as-usual until the year 2100, will cause the emission of 5,500 billion tons CO2.
Burning all of the available fossil fuels, will cause the emission of 16,500 billion tons.
Atmospheric CO2 will peak at from 55 to 64 percent of the amount emitted,
And within 1˝ to 2 centuries, the earth will warm 5-8 degrees Centigrade.
Thousands of Years
After 1,000 years (that
is, by the year 3,010), some 24 to 36 percent of the original
CO2 load will remain in the atmosphere, warming the planet some 3-6 degrees.
This is because the CO2 absorption rate of the ocean during the first 300 years of the
Pulse will have been fast, but limited. Calcium carbonate (CaCO3) buffering reactions
Will now be prominent, enabling continued absorption, but at a much slower rate.
Tens of Thousands of Years
After 10,000 years (by
the year 12,010), some 12 to 17 percent of the original
CO2 load will still be in the atmosphere, warming the planet some 2-4 degrees.
The buffering capacity of the ocean will be exhausted, CO2 absorption now
Being provided exclusively through the weathering of land igneous rocks,
By which rain water carries CO2, as calcium carbonate (CaCO3), into the ocean.3
Hundreds of Thousands of Years
Over 400,000 years, weathering will finish clearing the atmosphere of our CO2 pulse.
The planet, however, will never return to its pre-fossil fuel temperature trajectory.
At present, our earth’s orbit around the sun is nearly circular. The conjunction of the
Orbital and the CO2 forcings will keep the climate warm. The earth may miss the
Glaciation expected in 50,000 years, and perhaps even that expected in 500,000 years.
The Faustian Bargain
Burning one gallon of gasoline, obtaining from it 2,500 kilocalories of energy,
Causes the emission of an amount of CO2 which, during its atmospheric lifetime,
Will trap 100,000,000,000 (100 billion) kilocalories of heat through its greenhouse effect.
The ratio of usable to destructive energy, is 1 to 40,000,000.
Notes
1. The figures are from the United States Government, Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, as quoted in Slate 2006, pp. 1-2; and U.S. Government, 2010, Fuel Economy, p. 1.
Carbon accounts for about 87 percent of the weight of gasoline. A gallon of gasoline, which weighs about 3.1 kilograms (6.3 pounds), contains 2.7 kilograms (5.5 pounds) of carbon. The reaction with oxygen is 99 percent efficient.
The atomic weight of carbon is 12, and that of oxygen is 16. Carbon dioxide, therefore, has an atomic weight of [12 + (16 x 2)] = 44. This means that the weight of carbon dioxide is (44 / 12) = 3.67 times the weight of carbon. One gallon of gasoline, therefore, emits (2.7 x 3.67) = 9.9 kilograms (20 pounds) of carbon dioxide.
2. The 31.4 billion metric tons is for CO2, not CO2-equivalents. Gases other than carbon dioxide are harder to measure and are generally not available for some time.
3. Igneous rocks are rocks which originate from the cooling and solidificaton of molten matter from the earth’s interior (Columbia Encyclopedia 2000).
References
Principal Reference:
Archer, David. 2009. The long thaw – how humans are changing the next 100,000 years of Earth’s climate. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University.
Archer gives his figures in terms of carbon. I have multiplied them by 3.67 to convert them to carbon dioxide.
Pp. 103, 109 and 156: Total CO2 emissions.
Pp. 5, 103, 108-109, 112, 121-123, 130 and 156: Moderate and maximum emission scenarios; climate warming over centuries.
Pp. 1, 4-6, 11, 45-46, 110, 114, 117, 123 and 146: Extent of warming and ocean buffering over thousands of years.
Pp. 4, 83, 85, 111, 117, 119 and 123: Extent of warming and weathering over tens of thousands of years.
Pp. 54, 73, 89-90, 110, 114, 116-117, 153-154 and 156: The clearing of the atmosphere; the missing of expected glaciations.
Pp. 173-174: The energy bargain.
Other References:
Columbia Encyclopedia. 2000. 6th Edition. New York, N.Y.: Columbia University/Gale Group.
Definition of igneous rocks; Faust.
Reuters, 2010. “World 2009 CO2 Emission off 1.3 percent: Institute.” Press Release, Renewable Energy Institute (IWR), Muenster, Germany. (Edited by James Jukwey). August 13. P. 1.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67C1IU20100813. Accessed August 17, 2010.
P. 1: A total of 31.3 billion tons of CO2 emitted globally, in 2009.
Slate. 2006. “How Gasoline becomes CO2 – A Gallon turns into 19 Pounds?” (Daniel Engber). November 1. Pp. 1-2.
http://www.slate.com/id/2152685. Accessed August 17, 2010.
Pp. 1-2: One gallon of gasoline emits 20 pounds of CO2.
United States Government, Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Fuel Economy, 2010. “How can a Gallon of Gasoline produce 20 Pounds of Carbon dioxide?” August 11. P. 1.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/fed/co2.shtml. Accessed August 18, 2010.
Wikipedia, 2010. “Edwin Drake.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Accessed August 17, 2010.
Worldwatch Institute, 2009. State of the world, 2009 – into a warming world. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton. P. 192.
P. 192: One ton of carbon = 3.67 tons of carbon dioxide.
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