September 30, 2006

The brief and disastrous Reign of Homo petrolatum

15,000,000,000 Years ago:

The Beginning of Space-time: Our universe comes into being (Ferreira 2006, pp. 123, 211, 230 and 253; summarized in Hall 2006b, p. 5).

10,000,000,000 Years ago:

The first Stars: The first stars arise. Most stars are from 10,000,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 years old (Ferreira 2006, pp. 76 and 100; summarized in Hall 2006b, p. 23. Wikipedia 2006, AStars@).

5,000,000,000 Years ago:

The Sun: The Sun, a medium-size star, arises (Columbia Encyclopedia 2000).

4,500,000,000 Years ago:

Planet Earth: The Earth arises [Ferreira 2006, pp. 100 and 210; summarized in Hall 2006b, p. 29. For the half-life of depleted uranium (DU), see 1991, p. 11].

3,850,000,000 Years ago:

Life: Prokaryotic cells appear spontaneously from pre-biotic organic molecules. Planet Earth is the only planet known to support life (Wilson 1992/1999; summarized in Hall 2005b, p. 3. Columbia Encyclopedia 2000).

600,000,000 Years ago:

The first Animals: The first animals evolve in the seas. They are soft-bodied and typically flat (Wilson 1992/1999, p. 188; Summarized in Hall 2005b, p. 3).

340,000,000 Years ago:

Coal Forests: Coal forests replace the pioneer vegetation. They are dominated by towering lycophyte trees, seed ferns, tree horsetails, and a great variety of ferns (Wilson 1992/1999, pp. 189-190; summarized in Hall 2005b, p. 4).

145,000,000 Years ago and

95,000,000 Years ago:

Oil: Oil is formed during two short epochs of extreme global warming, when a prolific growth of algae overwhelms the seas and lakes. This organic matter would be buried underneath younger sediments, and, heated by the Earth=s heat flow, would be converted into the oil and gas we know today. These would be preserved mainly in rifts (such as the Red Sea and the North Sea) which would develop as the continents (tectonic plates) would separate (Campbell 2005, pp. 133-134. Campbell 1999, p. 2).

67,000 years ago:

Homo sapiens: Modern humans B are fully evolved (Columbia Encyclopedia).

C.E.

1:

World Population: World population is 200,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 1. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For world population, see also 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

1650:

World Population: World population is 500,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 2. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For world population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

1800:

The Atmosphere: The earth=s atmosphere is 270 parts per million carbon dioxide (McKillop 2005, p. 139. For The Atmosphere, see also 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

1850:

1. World Population: World population is 1,000,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 2. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For world population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; and 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Sources of Energy: Of all the work being done in modern societies, such as the United States, for example, 83 percent comes from animate labor (muscle power) B 65 percent from the labor of domesticated animals, and 18 percent from the labor of humans. Fuel-powered machines provide 17 percent of the total power consumed (Heinberg 2006. For Sources of Energy, see also 1960, p. 5; 2000, p. 19; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

1859:

1. The Discovery of Oil in the U.S.: In a well drilled 21 meters deep, near Titusville, PA, Edwin Drake strikes oil. This is the first oil-producing well in the United States. Cheap oil becomes increasingly available (Answers.com 2003, pp. 1-2. McCluney 2005, p. 178).

2. The Energy Equivalent of Oil: It would soon become evident that one gallon of gasoline can generate power equivalent to six humans doing hard labor for one week (Heinberg 2006. For The Energy Equivalent of Oil, see also 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

1910:

Oil Subsidy to Agriculture: In the United States, range-fed beef, coastal fishing, grass-fed cows, and Alow-intensity@ eggs, use about 0.5 -1 calorie of fossil energy subsidy for every one calorie of food output (McCluney 2005, p. 157. For Oil Subsidy to Agriculture, see also 1940, p. 3; 1980, p. 10; and 2004, p. 31 of the present document).

1928:

Nationalism in Oil-producing Nations: The Soviet Union expropriates the assets of foreign oil companies (Campbell 2005, p. 31).

1930:

1. World Population: World population is 2,000,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 2. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For world population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; and 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Country Peak Oil Discovery: In the United States, oil discovery in the lower 48 states peaks (Campbell 2005, pp. 46 and 135. Campbell 1999, p. 9. For peak oil production, see 1970, p. 7 of the present document).

1938:

Nationalism in Oil-producing Nations: Mexico expropriates the assets of foreign oil companies (Campbell 2005, p. 31).

1939:

Oil cheap and easy to extract: Most of the onshore oil basins and many of the giant fields within them have been identified (Campbell 2005, p. 30. For oil less cheap and easy to extract, see 1962, p. 5 of the present document).

1940:

Oil Subsidy to Agriculture: In the United States, grass-fed beef, Aintensive@ eggs and modern milk production use about 2-5 calories of fossil energy subsidy for every one calorie of food output (McCluney 2005, p. 157. For Oil Subsidy to Agriculture, see also 1910, p. 3; 1980, p. 10; and 2004, p. 31 of the present document).

1945:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: The United States drops one nuclear bomb, equivalent to 12,500,000 kilograms of TNT on Hiroshima, and another, equivalent to 22,000,000 kilograms of TNT, on Nagasaki (Hanson 1998, p. 1; summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 4. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11, 1992-2003, p. 13, 1994-1995, p. 13, 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33).

1951:

Nationalism in Oil-producing Nations: Iran expropriates the assets of foreign oil companies (Campbell 2005, p. 31).

1955:

Country Peak Oil Production: In Austria, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

1956:

Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil: King Hubbert, researcher at Shell Oil, presents his findings to the American Petroleum Institute. He predicts a probable peak in United States oil production between 1966 and 1971 (the Hubbert=s curve for future oil production) (Korpela 2005, p. 11. Campbell 2005, p. 32. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; 2004, p. 30; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

1960:

1. World Population: World population is 3,000,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 1. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For world population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; and 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Sources of Energy: Virtually all the work done in modern societies, such as the United States, is done by fuel-powered machines (Heinberg 2006. For Sources of Energy, see also 1850, p. 2; 2000, p. 19; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

3. World Cropland: Worldwide, 0.5 hectare of cropland is available per capita (McCluney 2005, p. 156. For World Cropland, see also 1999, p. 17 of the present document).

4. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is founded in Baghdad, Iraq, with the aim of unifying and coordinating the petroleum policies of member states.

Original member countries are Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. They would be joined by Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), Ecuador (1963-1993), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Gabon (1975-1995), and Djibouti (2006). By 2006, Indonesia would no longer be an exporter and its membership would be under review. OPEC is headquartered in Vienna, Austria (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency 2006, p. 1. Wikipedia 2006, AOPEC@).

1962:

1. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Environment: Rachel Carson=s influential book, Silent spring, is published in the United States, and sparks the beginning of the environmental movement (National Resources Defense Council 1997; summarized in Hall 2005g, p. 11. For Planetary Limits B The Environment, see also 1992, p. 12; 2002, p. 23; 2004, p. 29; and 2005, p. 34).

2. Oil less cheap and easy to extract: Offshore drilling is greatly facilitated by the development of a semi-submersible rig (Campbell 2005, p. 30. For oil cheap and easy to extract, see 1939, p. 3 of the present document).

1964:

1. World Peak of Oil Discovery: Worldwide, discovery of oil peaks (Korpela 2005, p. 12. Campbell 2005, pp. 33 and 135. Heinberg 2004, p. 19. Heinberg 2006. Campbell 1999, p. 5).

2. Oil Surplus: The world has a surplus of 60,000,000,000 barrels (Campbell 1999, p. 5. For the surplus turning into a deficit, see 1981 p. 10; and 1999, p. 18 of the present document).

One barrel of oil is equal to 42 U.S. gallons.

Billions of barrels (such as the above 60 billion barrels, are also known as giga-barrels (Gb) B- the world has a 60 Gb surplus (Korpela 2005, p. 11. Staniford-Chen 2006, p. 2).

1968:

Country Peak in Oil Production: In Germany, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

1970=s:

Nationalism in Oil-producing Nations: Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Venezuela and Algeria expropriate the assets of foreign oil companies (Campbell 2005, p. 31).

1970:

Country Peak Oil Production: In the United States, oil production peaks B 40 years after the peak of discovery (Korpela 2005, p. 12. Campbell 2005, pp. 46, 135 and 234. McKillop 2005, pp. 88 and 90. Heinberg 2004, p. 26. For peak oil discovery, see 1930, p. 3 of the present document).

1972:

1. Warning: Planetary Limits B Resources: Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William Behrens III, in a study based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), commissioned by the Club of Rome, warn of planetary limits. In The limits to growth, they conclude that if prevailing growth trends continue, fundamental resource limits will be reached by the middle of the 21^st century B limits which are likely to precipitate a dramatic, uncontrollable collapse in social viability, as measured by such indices as population size and food production (Heinberg 2004, p. 93. McKillop 2005, p. 6. For Planetary Limits B Resources, see 1992, p. 12; 1999, p. 17; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

2. The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, Sweden: The conference is the first international forum to address global environmental challenges. The impetus for the conference is the acid rain which is falling on northern Europe. The Eastern block and the AGroup of 77@ (Adeveloping@ nations) oppose what they see as an Aeco-agenda.@ The conference is attended by 113 countries, and considers the need for a common outlook and common principles to inspire and guide the peoples of the world in the preservation and enhancement of the human environment.

The conference results in the establishment of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), to be based in Nairobi, Kenya, and Earthwatch, a global monitoring system, which would later be integrated into the UNEP (McKillop 2005, p. 6. World Summit on sustainable Development 2002, p. 1. Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development 2004, p. 1. Wikipedia 2006, AGroup_of_77@).

1973:

1. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: During the 1973 Yom Kippur war, depleted uranium (DU) weapons are given by the United States to Israel, and are used by Israel against the Arabs, under the supervision of the United States (Moret 2003, p. 10. Moret 2004a p. 5. Moret 2004b, p. 4. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 1. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

2. The per capita World Oil Production ceases to grow exponentially: The per capita world oil production, which has grown exponentially since 1920, ceases to grow. Growth would be negligible until the all-time peak in 1979 (Duncan 2000, pp. 5-6).

3. The AFirst Oil Shock@: In retaliation for the pro-Israel stand of the United States and the Netherlands in the Israeli-Palestine conflict, Arab producers restrict exports to them for a matter of months. Oil prices rise 5-fold and the world plunges into a recession (Campbell 2005, pp. 31-32. Saint Aroman and Crouzet 2005, p. 117. McKillop 2005, p. 230. For the ASecond Oil Shock,@ see 1979, p. 9 of the present document).

4. Regional Peak Oil Discovery: In the North Sea, discovery of oil peaks (Campbell 2005, p. 135. Heinberg 2006. Campbell 1999, p. 9).

1974:

The International Energy Agency: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group of wealthy, oil-importing countries, establishes the International Energy Agency (IEA), to be headquartered in Paris, France, with the mission of preventing disruptions in the supply of oil (Heinberg 2006. Wikipedia 2006, AIEA@).

IEA member states are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States (Wikipedia 2006, AIEA@).

1975:

World Population: World population is 4,000,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 1. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For World Population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1999, p. 16; and 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

1977:

Country Peak Oil Production: In Indonesia, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

1979:

1. The per capita World Oil Production reaches an all-time Peak: The per capita world oil production reaches an all-time peak of 5.5 barrels per person (Duncan 2000, p. 6).

2. The Second AOil Shock@: The fall of the Shah of Iran precipitates panic buying. Oil prices soar to US$90 a barrel (in 2004 dollars) (Campbell 2005, p. 32. For the AFirst Oil Shock,@ see 1973, p. 8 of the present document).

1980:

1. World Peak of Natural Gas Discovery: Worldwide, gas discovery peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 50).

2. The United States:

a. Oil Subsidy to Agriculture: In the United States, fish protein concentrate, distant fishing, and feedlot beef use about 10 calories of fossil energy subsidy for every one calorie of food output (McCluney 2005, p. 157. For Oil Subsidy to Agriculture, see also 1910, p. 3; 1940, p. 3; and 2004, p. 31 of the present document).

b. The United States will go to War for Oil: In the wake of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, President Jimmy Carter, in his State of the Union Address, makes explicit U.S. policy with regards to the Gulf region. The policy would become known as the ACarter Doctrine.@ Carter states:

AAn attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interest of the United States of America, [and] will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force@ (Carter 1980, quoted in Klare 2001, p. 4. For United States will go to War for Oil, see 1997, p. 15 of the present document).

1981:

Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil: The world rate of oil discovery rate falls short of its rate of consumption. The world=s oil surplus turns into a deficit, and this deficit would grow to the present day (Campbell 2005, pp. 32-33. Citizens Committee on Oil Peak and Decline 2003, p. 2. For the surplus turning into a deficit, see 1964, p. 6; and 1999, p. 18 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; 2004, p. 30; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

1988:

Research on Planetary Limits B Global Warming: The United Nations (specifically the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program) establish the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), to be based in Geneva, Switzerland (Wikipedia 2006, AIPCC@).

1990:

World Oil Consumption: World oil consumption is 24,360,100,000 barrels per year (66,740,000 barrels per day) (McKillop 2005, p. 207. For World Oil Consumption, see also 1999, p. 18; 2000, p. 19; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

1991:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: The West wages a war against Iraq, during which 325,000 to 900,000 kilograms (325-900 metric tons) of depleted uranium (uranium-238, DU) are deposited on the battlefields of Iraq and Kuwait. The low end of the estimate is the amount the Pentagon has admitted using. The high end is the estimate of scientific bodies. Assuming that 800,000 kilograms (800 tons) were used, this would be the radioactivity equivalent of 146,080 Hiroshima bombs (Kettner, cited in Philips 2004, p. 147. Moret 2003, p. 9. Moret 2004a, p. 10. Phillips 2004, p. 50. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 1. Heinberg 2004, p. 73. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

Every ton of depleted uranium (DU) deposited has the radioactivity equivalent of 182.6 Hiroshima bombs (Katsuma Yagasaki, cited in Phillips 2004, p. 50. Hanson 1998, p. 1. International Criminal Tribunal 2004, p. 36. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 4).

The half-life of depleted uranium (DU) is 4,500,000,000 years B- the time span since the origin of the Earth (Hooper 2001, p. 1. Moret 2004a, p. 3. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 6. For the age of the earth, see Planet Earth, p. 1 of the present document).

1992:

1. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Environment: A species is a closed gene pool which perpetuates itself in nature. It consists of a population whose members are able to interbreed freely under natural conditions. A conservative estimate of the total number of living species on earth (both described and un-described) is 13,630,000. A reasonable estimate of the number of species which are Arecognized@ is 1,600,000. The number of species which have been scientifically described is about 1,413,000.

Species are becoming extinct at a rate of between one and ten percent per decade. The combined average of all the estimates is 6 percent B that is, 0.6 percent per year, or 9.3 species an hour (Wilson 1992/1999, p. xviii).

After each of the five previous greatest extinction spasms which the biosphere has sustained (440,000,000, 365,000,000, 245,000,000, 210,000,000 and 65,000,000 years ago), it has taken evolution an average of about 35,000,000 years to restore pre-disaster levels of diversity (Wilson 1992/1999, pp. xvii, 31 and 189-191; summarized in Hall 2005g, p. 5. For Planetary Limits B The Environment, see also 1962, p. 5; 2002, p. 23; 2004, p. 29; and 2005, p. 34).

2. Warning: Planetary Limits B Resources: Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers update their 1972 data in, Beyond the limits. They conclude:

AOvershoot [can] no longer be avoided through wise policy. It [is] already a reality@ (Meadows 1992, quoted in Heinberg 2004, p. 95. For Planetary Limits B Resources, see also 1972, p. 7; 1999, p. 17; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

3. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, AThe Earth Summit@), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The Conference produces the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty (UNFCCC), which has as its objective:

ATo achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.@

The Treaty sets no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual nations and contains no enforcement provisions. It is, therefore, legally non-binding (Wikipedia 2006, AUNFCCC@).

1992-2003:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Depleted uranium (DU) weapons are most likely used by the West during air raids in the unilaterally designated Ano-fly zones@ of Iraq (Bein and Parker 2003, p. 4; summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 3. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; and 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

1994-1995:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Depleted uranium (DU) weapons are most likely used by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Bosnia (Bein and Parker 2003, p. 4; summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 3. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

1995:

Warning: Planetary Limits B Global Warming: The British Meteorological Organization, Hadley Center, reports that:

1. The global average temperature has increased by 0.7 degrees Centigrade.

2. The global average temperature is likely to increase by up to 8.8 degrees Centigrade before 2100 (Goldsmith 2005, pp. 56-57 and 299. McKillop 2005, p. 140).

3. Within 30 years (by 2025), rising temperatures will have become sufficient to switch the main sinks of carbon dioxide and methane (forests, ocean and soil) into sources. Should this occur, the chain-reaction of increasing temperatures would be unstoppable. The vicious cycle would be additionally intensified by a heat-driven massive release of methane, now present (Acaptured@) as methane hydrates in ocean sediments (Goldsmith 2005, p. 59. For Planetary Limits B Global Warming, see also 1999, p. 17; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

1996:

1. Warning: Planetary Limits B Agriculture vs. Global Warming: Peter Bunyard, freelance author and environmentalist, warns that industrial agriculture (fertilizers, destruction of tropical forests, methane from animals) is responsible for 25 percent of the world=s carbon dioxide emissions, 60 percent of methane gas emissions and 80 percent of nitrous oxide emissions, all of which are powerful greenhouse gases (Bunyard 1996, cited in Goldsmith 2005, pp. 57 and 299. McKillop 2005, p. 141. For Bunyard, see also 1996, p. 17 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Agriculture, see also 2003, p. 25; 2004, p. 29; 2005, p. 34 and 2006, p. 41 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Global Warming, see also 1995, p. 13; 1999, p. 17; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

2. Conceptualizing Planetary Limits: Mathis Wackernagel and William Rees, working at Redefining Progress, a non-profit organization based in Oakland, CA, develop the concept of Aecological footprint@ B the biologically productive land or sea area required to produce a yield sufficient to support a human population and absorb the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions.

Wackernagel would go on to found the Global Footprint Network, also based in Oakland, CA (McCluney 2005, p. 176. Heinberg 2004, front page. Global Footprint Network 2006. For Wackernagel, see also 2002, p. 23 of the present document).

1997:

1. Country Peak Oil Production: In Gabon, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

2. The United States will go to War for Oil: In his discussion with Azerbaijan President Heidar Aliyev, President Bill Clinton makes clear that an uninterrupted supply of oil is in the national security interest of the United States:

AIn a world of growing energy demand, our nation cannot afford to rely on any single region for our energy supplies. [By working closely with Azerbaijan to tap the Caspian=s resources], we not only help Azerbaijan to prosper, we also help diversify our energy supply and strengthen our nation=s security@ (Clinton 1997, quoted in Klare 2001, p. 4. For The United States will go to War for Oil, see also 1980, p. 10 of the present document).

3. First World Water Forum, Marrakech, Morocco: The first World Water Forum is sponsored by the World Water Council, an international multi-stakeholder platform established the previous year, and supported by both membership fees and its host city, Marseilles, France.

The Marrakech Declaration states:

A . . . to recognize the basic human need to have access to clean water and sanitation, to establish an effective mechanism for management of shared waters, to support and preserve ecosystems, to encourage the efficient use of water . . .@ (UNESCO 2003, p. 5. World Water Council 2006, pp. 1-2).

4. The Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) assigns each signatory nation mandatory targets to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. Ratifying nations commit to either reduce their own emissions, or engage in Aemissions trading@ in order to meet the required level of reduction (Wikipedia 2006, AKyoto Protocol.@ Wikipedia 2006, AUNFCCC.@ For The Kyoto Protocol, see also 2001, p. 22 of the present document).

1998:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Depleted uranium (DU) weapons are most likely used during the West=s Operation Desert Fox against Iraq (Bein and Parker 2003, p. 4; summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 3. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

1999:

1. World Population: World population is 6,000,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 2. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For World Population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 2001, p. 20; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool:

a. The United States wages a war against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY, that is, Serbia and Montenegro), during which it uses probably just less than 100,000 kilograms (100 tons) of depleted uranium (DU), mostly in Kosovo. This is the radioactivity equivalent of 18,260 Hiroshima bombs (Bein and Parker 2003, p. 4. Moret 2003, p. 9. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 3. Heinberg 2004, pp. 72-73. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

b. In the United States, of 50 states, 42 are contaminated with depleted uranium (DU) as a result of the manufacture, testing and deployment of DU since 1974 (Moret 2004b, p. 5; summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 6).

3. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): The CTBT, in force since 1996, prohibits all nuclear testing, establishes a worldwide network of monitoring stations, and allows for inspection of suspicious sites. In 1999, the United States rejects the Treaty (Chomsky 2006, p. 76; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 9. Boyle 2004, p. 119; summarized in Hall 2004c, p. 6. Columbia Encyclopedia).

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B Water: Of the global harvest, 10 percent are produced using water supplies that are not being replenished (Postel 1999, p. 80; summarized in Hall 2005g, p. 7. For Planetary Limits B Water, see also 2001, p. 20).

(1999, continued)

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B Land:

a. World Productive Land: The earth has available 1.2 hectares of productive land per capita. In order to sustain a Arich-world@ lifestyle, 10 hectares (7-12 hectares) of productive land per capita are needed (Trainer 2005, p. 279. For Productive Land, see also 2050, p. 43 of the present document).

b. World Cropland: The earth has 0.27 hectare of cropland per capita. This compares to 0.5 hectare in 1960 (McCluney 2005, p. 156. For World Cropland, see also 1960, p. 5 of the present document).

5. Warning: Planetary Limits B Global Warming: Peter Bunyard, freelance author and environmentalist, reports that the secondary Antarctic and Greenland ice-shields are melting far more quickly than the rate predicted by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1995. The reduced salinity of the ocean which the melting will produce, will weaken, if not divert, the Gulf Stream B precipitating a freezing of Northern Europe (Bunyard 1999, cited in Goldsmith 2005, pp 56 and 299. For Bunyard, see also 1996, p. 14 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Global Warming, see also 1995, p. 13; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

6. Warning: Planetary Limits B Resources: David Pimentel, at Cornell University, Department of Ecology, estimates that it would require at least three times the earth=s entire resources and physical area to provide the world population with the material and energy consumed by an average North American citizen (Pimentel 1999, cited McCluney 2005, pp. 177 and 182. For Planetary Limits B Resources, see also 1972, p. 7; 1992, p. 12; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

7. Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil:

a. Discoveries: Oil exploration geologist Colin Campbell, who a year later (in 2000), together with French oil industry consultant Jean Laherrere, would co-found the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), addresses the British House of Commons. He warns:

AThe . . . generation of oil and gas was a very rare event in both time and place in the geological past . . . Much [of what] was formed, was lost by leakage . . . All discovery curves are flattening@ (Campbell 1999, pp. 3 and 5. Korpela 2005, p. 12. Wikipedia AAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil.@ For Laherrere, see also 1999, p. 18 of the present document).

(1999, continued)

b. Ratio of Consumption to Discovery: Humans consume 23,000,000,000 barrels per year (63,000,000 barrels per day). They discover 6,000,000,000 barrels per year (16,000,000 barrels per day) B a ratio of almost 4 barrels consumed for every barrel discovered (Campbell 1999, pp. 5 and 13. Campbell 2005, p. 33. Heinberg 2006. For World Oil Consumption, see also 1990, p. 11, 2000, p. 19; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document. For the ratio of consumption to discovery, see also 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

c. Deficit: World oil deficit is 20,000,000,000 barrels B compared to the surplus of 60,000,000,000 barrels in 1964, when world oil discovery peaked (Campbell 1999, p. 5. For the surplus turning into a deficit, see 1964, p. 6; and 1981, p. 10 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; 2004, p. 30; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

d. Reserves: Global oil reserves are estimated to total 950,000,000,000 barrels. Of this total, 63 percent lie within the territory of five countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran), and almost all of the rest within the territory of another nine countries (Venezuela, Russia, Mexico, United States, Libya, China, Nigeria and the North Sea (Norway and the United Kingdom) (Klare 2001, pp. 44 and 45).

e. Depletion: Jean Laherrere, refining and extending Hubbert=s methods, shows that:

i. Cumulative production lags discovery by 38 years. Peak production is likely to be, therefore, in 2008.

ii. 200,000,000,000 barrels are still undiscovered. This is 10 percent of the world=s initial (ultimate) oil endowment B meaning that 90 percent of the world=s oil has been discovered. At 1999 production rates, this amount would provide 8 years supply (until 2007) (Laherrere 1999, cited in Korpela 2005, pp 12-13. For Laherrere, see also 1999, p. 17 of the present document).

8. Country Peak Oil Production: In China, and in the United Kingdom, oil production peaks (McKillop 2005, p. 90. Heinberg 2004, p. 26. For the increase in China=s import subsequent to the decline of its domestic production, see 2004, p. 32 of the present document).

2000:

1. The Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty: The United States, under President George W. Bush, rescinds the Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty (Chomsky 2006, p. 76; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 9).

2. The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT): The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been in force since 1995. At the 2000 Review Conference, the United States, under President George W. Bush, is alone in rejecting an otherwise unanimous call for:

Aan unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear weapons states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals@ (Chomsky 2006, p. 75; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 9. For the NPT, see also 2005, p. 34 of the present document).

3. Country Peak Oil Production: In Australia and Oman, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

4. World Oil Consumption: World oil consumption is 28,013,750,000 barrels per year (76,750,000 barrels per day) (McKillop 2005, p. 207. Klare 2001, pp. 19 and 39. For World Oil Consumption, see also 1990, p. 11; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

5. Sources of Energy: Of the world=s total energy consumption, 86 percent is from the draw-down of fossil fuel resources, 7 percent from the draw-down of uranium, and 7 percent from flow resources, hydroelectric being the primary of these (Fisker 2005, p. 85. For Sources of Energy, see also 1850, p. 2; 1960, p. 5; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

6. Country Shortage of Natural Gas: In the United States, the production of natural gas peaks (Campbell 2005, pp. 43 and 47. McKillop 2005, p. 88. For the end of the plateau in production, see 2004, p. 31 of the present document).

2001:

1. World Population: World population is 6,150,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 2. McCluney 2005, p. 154. For World Population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; and 1999, p. 16; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Professor Katsuma Yagasaki, of Ryukyus University, Okinawa, Japan, estimates that 800,000 kilograms (800 tons) of depleted uranium (DU) have been used by the West in its war against Afghanistan. This is the radioactivity equivalent of 146,080 Hiroshima bombs (International Criminal Tribunal 2004, p. 36. Phillips 2004, p. 50. Hanson 1998, p. 1. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 4. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2003, p. 24; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

3. Warning: Planetary Limits B Water:

a. Individual Scarcity: Of the world=s 6,150,000,000 people, 40 percent B 2,480,000,000 people B residing in eighty countries, face a scarcity of water. Scarcity of water for an individual, is defined as the availability of less that 1000 cubic meters (265,000 gallons) per person per year, without compromising water capital (Klare 2001, p. 142. Petrella 2001, p. 28. These sources summarized in Hall 2003, p. 4. For Planetary Limits B Water, see also 1999, p. 16).

b. Country Scarcity: Of the world=s 6,150,000,000 people, 1,700,000,000 B 28 percent B are living in countries facing water stress. Water stress for a country is defined as one which consumes each year more than 20 percent of its renewable water supply (United Nations Development Programme 2003, pp. 10 and 125; summarized in Hall 2005g, pp. 8 and 14. For Planetary Limits B Water, see also 1999, p. 16).

(2001, continued)

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B Global Warming: The United Nations Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), issues its Third assessment report B climate change, which predicts that the increased global temperature will cause:

a. An increase in heat-waves, cyclones, storms and floods.

b. The spread of human and crop diseases from the tropics to temperate areas.

c. A rise in sea level of up to 0.88 meters before 2100. This is likely to affect 30 percent of the world=s agricultural lands (Goldsmith 2005, pp. 56 and 299. McKillop 2005, p. 140. Wikipedia 2006, AIPCC.@ For Planetary Limits B Global Warming, see also 1995, p. 13; 1999, p. 17; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

5. World Oil Consumption: World oil consumption is 28,105,000,000 barrels per year (77,000,000 barrels per day) (Klare 2005, p. 4. For World Oil Consumption, see also 1990, p. 11; 1999, p. 18; 2000, p. 19; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

6. Country Peak Oil Production: In Norway, oil production peaks (Heinberg 2004, p. 26).

7. Regional Peak Oil Production: In the North Sea, production of oil peaks. Oil production decline would be 6 percent a year B a halving of production in 10 years (by 2011). Europe faces the prospect of competing for its own ever-increasing demand, with other oil-importing countries, such as the United States, Japan, China and India (Campbell 2005, pp. 32-33 and 135. Heinberg 2006).

8. Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil: The world no longer has Aspare capacity@ B intentionally arrested production which can be restored at will (Campbell 2005, p. 136. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2003, p. 26; 2004, p. 30; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

9. Country Peak Natural Gas Production: In the United States, natural gas production peaks (McKillop 2005, p. 88).

(2001, continued)

10. The Kyoto Protocol: President George W. Bush explicitly rejects the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol would require the United States to reduce its total emissions by an average of 7 percent below 1990 levels (McKillop 2005, p. 128. Wikipedia 2006, AUNFCCC@).

On June 11^th, during press conference on Global Climate Change, President Bush states:

AThis is an issue that I know is very important to the nations of Europe, which I will be visiting for the first time as president. The earth=s well-being is also an issue important to America . . .@

AThe Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in fundamental ways . . . [It] is, in many ways, unrealistic . . . The targets . . . were arbitrary and not based upon science. For America, complying with those mandates would have a negative economic impact, with layoffs of workers and price increases for consumers . . . We all believe technology offers great promise to significantly reduce emissions B especially carbon capture, storage and sequestration technologies . . .@

AWe must always act to ensure continued economic growth and prosperity for our citizens and for citizens throughout the world. We should pursue market-based incentives and spur technological innovation . . .@

AAnd, finally our approach must be based on global participation, including that of developing countries whose net greenhouse gas emissions now exceed those in the developed countries@ (White House 2001, pp. 1, 3 and 5-6. For the Kyoto Protocol, see also 1997, p. 15 of the present document).

2002:

1. Modifying the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool:

a. Cloning: ABaby Eve@ may be the first cloned child (McKibben 2003, pp. xi and 18; summarized in Hall 2004a, p. 2. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2003, p. 24; and 2004, p. 28).

b. Genetic Engineering:

i. Two babies are born, each of whom have three Aparents,@ B a sperm donor and two women, each of whom have contributed to the egg.

ii. Human sperm is grown in rats.

iii. A featherless chicken is produced. It does not need to be plucked before being sold (McKibben 2003, pp. 19 and 58; summarized in Hall 2004a, pp. 3 and 4. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2003, p. 24; and 2004, p. 28).

2. Warning: Planetary Limits B Fish: 75 percent of the world=s fisheries are being fished at or beyond sustainability, some to the point of collapse (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 2002, p. 23; cited in Brown, Lester 2003, p. 94; and Brown, Lester 2004, pp. 47-48; summarized in Hall 2005c, p. 6, and Hall 2005g, p. 7. For Planetary Limits B Fish, see also 2003, p. 25).

3. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Environment: Mathis Wackernagel writes:

AHumanity=s ecological footprint [claims on the earth] exceeds the Earth=s biological [regenerative] capacity by about 20 percent . . . The human economy is liquidating the Earth=s natural capital@ (Wackernagel 2002, cited in McCluney 2005, p. 176. For Wackernagel, see also 1996, p. 14 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B The Environment, see also 1962, p. 5; 1992, p. 12; 2004, p. 29; and 2005, p. 34 of the present document).

4. Warning: The Economy of the United States: The total indebtedness of the United States is US$6,190,000,000,000. On the basis of a 2002 population of 291,000,000, this is US$21,300 per capita (McKillop 2005, p. 204. United Nations Human Development Programme 2004, p. 152. For The Economy of the United States, see also 2005, p. 40 of the present document).

2003:

1. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Professor Katsuma Yagasaki, of Ryukyus University, Okinawa, estimates that 2,410,000 kilograms (2,410 tons) of depleted uranium (DU) have been used by the West during its war against Iraq. This is the radioactivity equivalent of 440,066 Hiroshima bombs (International Criminal Tribunal 2004, p. 36. Phillips 2004, p. 50. Hanson 1998, p. 1. These sources summarized in Hall 2005d, p. 5. Heinberg 2004, p. 73. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2004. p. 28; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

2. Modifying the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool:

a. Cloning:

i. Cloned cattle can be ordered through the Internet.

ii Cloned chicken embryos are supplied in bulk to chicken farmers (McKibben 2003, pp. 15-16 and 146; summarized in Hall 2004a, p. 2. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2002, p. 23; and 2004, p. 28).

b. Genetic Engineering:

i. ADesigner sperm@ is produced.

ii. Pigs whose DNA contains genes from a mouse and from bacteria, produce excreta low in phosphorus, and hence can be raised at a greater density per acre than at the present time.

iii. Goats whose DNA contains spider genes, produce milk which contains super-strong silk.

iv. A rabbit whose DNA contains genes from a phosphorescent jellyfish, glows green from every cell in her body (McKibben 2003, pp. 16, 19, 24, 106 and 213; summarized in Hall 2004a, pp. 3-4. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2002, p. 23; and 2004, p. 28).

(2003, continued)

3. Warning: Planetary Limits B Agriculture: For each consecutive year during the five-year period 1999-2003, worldwide production of cereal crops (grains) has failed to keep up with consumption. In 2003, reserves are only 54 percent of what they were in 1999 B 371,900,000,000 kilograms (371.9 million tons) in 2003, compared to 684,500,000,000 kilograms (684.5 million tons) in 1999. Grains constitute 85 percent of the world food supply (U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, 2003, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 21. For Planetary Limits B Agriculture, see also 2004, p. 29; 2005, p. 34; and 2006, p. 41 of the present document).

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B Fish:

a. World: Ransom Myers and Boris Worm, of Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, write in the British Science journal, Nature:

AOur analysis suggests that the global ocean has lost more than 90 percent of large predatory fishes.@ The large predatory species include cod, halibut, marlin, swordfish and tuna (Myers and Worm 2003, cited in Brown, Lester 2003, p. 94 and in Brown, Lester 2004, p. 48, both of these sources summarized in Hall 2005c, p. 6, and in Hall 2005g, p. 7; cited also in Heinberg 2004, p. 6. For Planetary Limits B Fish, see also 2002, p. 23).

b. The North Sea: Reporters Richard Sadler and Geoffrey Lean entitle their article in the British newspaper, The Independent:

AFish Stocks and Sea Bird Numbers plummet as soaring Water Temperatures kill of vital Plankton.@

Within the article, the authors explain:

A[As a result of global warming], the North Sea is undergoing an >ecological meltdown= . . . [Scientists say that they are witnessing] >a collapse in the system,= with devastating implications for fisheries and wildlife@ (Sadler and Lean 2003, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 6. For Planetary Limits B Fish, see also 2002, p. 23).

(2003, continued)

5. Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil:

a. High Prices: Globally, the war in Iraq causes the price of oil to reach a high of US$40 a barrel (Korpela 2005, p. 28. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2004, p. 30; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

b. Depletion in Countries: Richard Duncan, financial analyst, writes in the Oil and Gas Journal that of the 44 significant oil-producing nations, at least 24 (55 percent) are past their peak of production (Duncan 2003, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 24. For Richard Heinberg=s 2005 estimate of the decline in production in several countries, see p. 38 of the present document. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; and 2005, p. 35 of the present document).

c. The United States Department of Energy: Russell Brown, working at the Argonne Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed by the University of Chicago, in Argonne, IL, writes in the Newsletter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO):

AThe United States and the world face an energy problem that goes far beyond the need for developing new technologies or building more power plants. As world petroleum production declines, the thermodynamic penalties associated with producing hydrogen or other energy carriers multiply the loss of primary energy.@

AEach downward step on the primary energy slope has a multiplicative effect. When petroleum supply ends, the effective reduction of U.S. primary energy will be about 56 percent.@

APreparation for both these changes and their effects must begin immediately. If done well, a hydrogen-based transportation system would provide limited personal mobility, decreased agricultural productivity, and increased costs of goods and services. If done either poorly or late, the results could be disastrous@ (Emphasis mine) (Brown, Russell 2003, p. 14; cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 25).

(2003, continued)

d. Exxon-Mobil: Jon Thompson, President of Exxon-Mobil Exploration Company, writing in The Lamp, the Company=s quarterly newsletter for its shareholders, assesses the situation. [Thompson bases his statistics on the fact that the 2003 world oil and gas production in terms of Aoil-equivalents@ is 45,625,000,000 barrels per year (125,000,000 barrels per day)]:

AWe estimate that world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at an average rate of about 4 to 6 percent a year. ATo meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100,000,000 oil-equivalent barrels a day [36,500,000,000 oil-equivalent barrels a year] of new production. That is equal to about 80 percent of today=s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to 8 out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.@

AEqually daunting is the fact that many of the most promising prospects are far from major markets B some in regions that lack even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges@ (Emphases mine) (Thompson 2003, quoted in the Newsletter of Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), pp. 10-11).

See Graph No. 2, AThe Growing Gap,@ p. 57 of the present document.

6. Warning: Regional Shortage B Natural Gas:

a. North America: In North America, the price of natural gas has increased three-fold during the preceding year due to growing scarcity (Korpela 2005, p. 28. For natural gas, see also 2025, p. 43; and 2035, p. 43 of the present document).

b. The United States: In the United States, Alan Greenspan, Chairperson of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, warns the House of Representatives, Energy and Commerce Committee, that:

A[short supplies of natural gas could contribute to the] erosion of the economy . . . [The Committee should consider] the potentially important role that liquified natural gas (LNG) could play in American energy imports@ (Greenspan 2003, quoted in McKillop 2005, p. 88. Jones 2005, p. 109).

2004:

1. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: Writing in World Affairs B The Journal of International Issues, geo-scientist Leuren Moret, whistle blower from the Livermore Nuclear Weapons Laboratory, states her conclusion that the global radioactive contamination from atmospheric testing to date has reached the radioactivity equivalent of 40,000 Hiroshima bombs (Moret 2004a, p. 3; summarized in Hall 2005d, p.1. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003. p. 24; and 2005, p. 33 of the present document).

2. The Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT, or FISSBAN): Uranium and plutonium are the two most useful fissile fuels. The core of today=s nuclear weapons is either highly enriched uranium (HEU) or, more commonly, plutonium-239. Civilian nuclear power reactors usually use uranium enriched at a uranium-235 level of up to 10 percent (Dumas 1999, pp. 40 and 84; summarized in Hall 2004b, p. 3).

A FISSBAN Treaty to make public all fissile material inventories and forbid further production was first proposed at the United Nations in 1993. In July 2004, United States President George W. Bush makes his opposition known on the grounds that effective verification:

Awould require an inspection regime so extensive that it could compromise key signatories= core national security interests@ (Chomsky 2006, pp. 71 and 76; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 10).

At a November 2004 meeting of the United Nations Committee on Disarmament, the United States casts the sole vote in opposition to a verifiable FISSBAN. The vote is 147 to 1, with two abstentions (Israel and the United Kingdom) (Chomsky 2006, p. 76; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 10).

3. Modifying the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool:

a. World: Worldwide, genetically-modified organisms threaten to eliminate native and wild populations of corn, rice, wheat, fish and other sources of food (Renner 2005, p. 70; summarized in Hall 2005a, p. 4. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2002, p. 23; and 2003, p. 24).

b. The United States: In the United States, more than two thirds of conventional crops are contaminated with genetically modified material (Renner 2005, pp. 70-71; summarized in Hall 2005a, p. 4. For Modifying the Gene Pool, see also 2002, p. 23, and 2003, p. 24).

(2004, continued)

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Atmosphere: The earth=s atmosphere is 375 parts per million carbon dioxide, up from 270 parts per million in 1800 (McKillop 2005, p. 139. For The Atmosphere, see also 1800, p. 2 of the present document).

5. Warning: Planetary Limits B Agriculture: The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reports that in 2004, world cereal crops reserves were 68 percent of what they were in 1999 B 466,400,000,000 kilograms (466.4 million tons) in 2004, compared to 684,500,000,000 kilograms (684.5 million tons) in 1999 (U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 21. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization 2006, p. 4. For Planetary Limits B Agriculture, see also 2003, p. 25; 2005, p. 34; and 2006, p. 41 of the present document).

6. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Environment: 41 percent of the world=s 4,473 mammal species for which data are available, are either extinct (73 species) or at various levels of threat of extinction (1,756 species) (World Bank and the United Nations University 2005, pp. 1-2; summarized in Hall 2005g, p. 5. For Planetary Limits B The Environment, see also 1962, p. 5; 1992, p. 12; 2002, p. 23; and 2005, p. 34 of the present document).

7. Warning: Planetary Limits B Global Warming: If humans were to stop immediately the burning of all fossil fuels, the planet would continue to warm up for at least 150 years (until 2154), and the oceans would continue to warm for at least 1,000 years (until 3000).

Edward Goldsmith, founder, in 1969, of The Ecologist magazine, writes:

AAll we can do is to take measures B dramatic ones B to limit damage and slow down the warming trend, so that when our climate eventually stabilizes, our planet will remain partly habitable@ (Goldsmith 2005, pp. 57 and 295. For Planetary Limits B Global Warming, see also 1995, p. 13; 1999, p. 17; and 2001, p. 21 of the present document).

8. Warning: Planetary Limits B Resources: Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers update their 1972 and 1992 data in, The limits to growth B the 30-year update. They conclude:

AWe are much more pessimistic about the global future than we were in 1972. It is a sad fact that humanity has largely squandered the last 30 years in futile debates and well-intentioned, but half-hearted, responses to the global ecological challenge@ (Meadows 2004, quoted in Heinberg 2004, p. 95. For Planetary Limits B Resources, see also 1972, p. 7; 1992, p. 12; and 1999, p. 17 of the present document).

(2004, continued)

9. Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil:

a. Discovery: World oil discovery totals 7,000,000,000 barrels (Heinberg 2006).

b. Consumption: World oil consumption is 30,660,000,000 barrels per year (84,000,000 barrels per day) (Heinberg 2006. For World Oil Consumption, see also 1990, p. 11; 1999, p. 18; 2000, p. 19; and 2001, p. 21 of the present document).

During the 20 years 1985-2004, this consumption has increased by 45 percent, from 21,150,000,000 barrels (58,000,000,000 barrels per day) in 1985 to 30,660,000,000 barrels (85,000,000,000 barrels per day) in 2004. This is a growth rate of 2.25 percent per year (McKillop 2005, pp. 198 and 237. Duncan 2000, p. 4).

c. Ratio Consumption to Discovery: World oil consumption is 4.3 times the amount discovered (McKillop 2005, p. 207. Heinberg 2004, p. 29. Campbell 2005, p. 134. For the ratio of consumption to discovery, see also 1999, p. 18 of the present document).

d. World Oil Depletion: (For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; and 2005, p. 35).

See Graph No. 3, AOil and Gas Liquids B 2004 Scenario,@ p. 58 of the present document.

10. Sources of Energy: Oil provides 40 percent of the world=s energy consumption (of all traded energy). This includes its use for 90 percent of the world=s transport fuel (Campbell 2005, pp. 29 and 133. Heinberg 2006. Citizens Committee on Oil Peak and Decline 2003, p. 2. For Sources of Energy, see also 1850, p. 2; 1960, p. 5; and 2000, p. 19 of the present document).

11. The Energy equivalent of Oil: The average gas tank in a car B filled in 2-3 minutes B contains 15 megawatts of energy. This is equivalent to all the energy which could be extracted or converted, with the highest-yielding equipment known, from the solar energy which would fall on several square miles, in the middle of summer, at latitudes of 40 degrees (McKillop 2005, p. 128. For The Energy Equivalent of Oil, see also 1859, p. 2 of the present document).

(2004, continued)

12. Oil Subsidy to Agriculture: The role of oil in agriculture is critical (Campbell 2005, pp. 29, 133 and 233. For Oil Subsidy to Agriculture, see also 1910, p. 3; 1940, p. 3; and 1980, p. 10 of the present document).

13. Oil Subsidy to Motor Vehicles: The people of the world number 6,400,000,000, and this number is increasing at the rate of 1.19 percent per year. These people have 775,000,000 oil-fueled motor vehicles, and this number is increasing at the rate of 4.76 percent per year B four times the rate of the people=s own increase (McKillop 2005, p. 228; United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 3).

14. Cultural Effects of Oil: Andrew McKillop, petroleum economist and founding member of the International Association of Energy Economics, Asian Chapter, notes:

a. From an economic point of view, the older democracies in the urban, Aindustrial@ North use 45 percent more oil and gas than in 1984 (McKillop 2005, p. 129. Heinberg 2004, p. 31).

b. From a cultural (societal) point of view, these older democracies of the urban Aindustrial@ North have undergone a transformation which can only be described using such terms as Aapocalyptic,@ Afear-laden,@ Aanomic,@ Aconfused,@ Astressed@ and Aaggressive.@

According to McKillop, the transformation began in 1991, with the Iraq War (the AFirst Oil War@), and the founding event for the transformation was the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 (McKillop 2005, p. 129).

15. Country Shortage of Natural Gas: The United States is at the end of its plateau of natural gas production and faces a crippling shortage, which will force it to rely increasingly on imports from Canada and the Arctic (Campbell 2005, pp. 43 and 47. McKillop 2005, p. 88. For the U.S. natural gas peak production, see 2000, p. 19 of the present document).

(2004, continued)

17. Country Oil Consumption B The United States:

a. Total Consumption: The U.S. consumes 7,060,000,000 barrels per year (19,300,000 barrels per day) (Campbell 2005, p. 98. Jones 2005, p. 114).

b. Per capita Consumption: On the basis of a 2004 population of 293,000,000, the country=s consumption is 24 barrels per person per year. This consumption increases only episodically (as in 1999-2004) and slowly (McKillop 2005, p. 90. Wikitravel.org 2004, p. 1).

c. Imports: The country imports 4,200,000,000 barrels per year (11,600,000 barrels per day). This is 60 percent of its consumption and twice as much as Japan, the second largest importer (Campbell 2005, pp. 98 and 137. McCluney 2005, p. 178. For U.S. imports in 2005, see 2005, p. 40 of the present document).

18. Country Oil Consumption B China:

a. Total consumption: China consumes 2,297,000,000 barrels per year (6,294,000 barrels per day) (China, Embassy to the U.S. 2006, p. 2. United States Department of Energy undated, p. 4).

b. Per capita Consumption: On the basis of a 2004 population of 1,292,000,000, the country=s consumption is 1.8 barrels per person per year. This consumption increases at the rate of 6 percent per year (China.org 2004, p.1. McKillop 2005, p. 90).

c. Imports: The country imports 40 percent more oil every year. Domestic production has been on a significant decline since 1999 (McKillop 2005, p. 90. For China=s peak oil production, see 1999, p. 18 of the present document).

2005:

1. World Population: World population is 6,450,000,000 (United States Bureau of the Census 2006b, p. 3. For World Population, see also year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; and 1999, p. 16; and 2001, p. 20 of the present document).

See Graph No. 1, AWorld Population,@ p. 56 of the present document.

2. Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool:

a. Radiation released: Worldwide, humans have released into the atmosphere the radiation equivalent of 821,679 Hiroshima bombs. This includes depleted uranium (DU) fired during wars by the United States, as of 2005 (750,486); released through tests by the United States inside the Continental United States, as of 2001 (70,502); released through tests by the United States outside the Continental United States, as of 2001 (52); and released in accidents worldwide, as of 2001 (639).

A radiation equivalent of 821,679 Hiroshima bombs amounts to approximately 13 Hiroshima bomb equivalents per 100,000 persons on earth.

b. Radiation in Storage: Worldwide, humans have available the radiation equivalent of 193,359,300 Hiroshima bombs. This includes depleted uranium (DU), as of 2001 (185,868,540); highly enriched uranium (HEU) in the Civilian Sector (1,000) and in the Military Sector (37,000), as of 2003; and plutonium in civilian nuclear power plants (6,401,267) and in the Military Sector, as of 2003 (1,051,493).

A radiation equivalent of 193,359,300 Hiroshima bombs amounts to approximately 3,000 Hiroshima bomb equivalents per 100,000 persons, or 3 Hiroshima bombs for every 100 persons on earth (van de Keur 2001, pp. 1-4; summarized in Hall 2005e, p. 7. International Depleted Uranium Study Team (IDUST) 2000, pp. 2-3. Goldstein 2004. Mastny 2005, pp. 80-81.These sources summarized in Hall 2005f, p. 2. See also Dumas 1999; summarized in Hall 2004b. See also Hall 2005d. For Damaging the Gene Pool, see also 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003. p. 24; and 2004, p. 28 of the present document).

(2005, continued)

3. The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NTP): The United States is alone in explicitly renouncing Article VI of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) which demands from nuclear states Agood faith@ efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons (Chomsky 2006, p. 75; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 11).

At the May 2005 NPT Review Conference, the statement of the Bush administration is that:

AThe United States balances its obligations under Article VI, with our obligations to maintain our own security and the security of those who depend us@ (Chomsky 2006, pp. 76 and 276-277; summarized in Hall 2006a, p. 11. For the NPT, see also 2000, p. 19 of the present document).

4. Warning: Planetary Limits B Agriculture: The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reports that in 2005, world cereal crops reserves are 67 percent of what they were in 1999 B 461,700,000,000 kilograms (461.7 million tons) in 2005, compared to 684,500,000,000 kilograms (684.5 million tons) in 1999 (U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 21. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization 2006, p. 4. For Planetary Limits B Agriculture, see also 2003, p. 25; 2004, p. 29; and 2006, p. 41 of the present document).

5. Warning: Planetary Limits B The Environment: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment by the World Bank and the United Nations University, Institute of Advanced Studies, concludes thus:

A[The study] reveals that approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth B such as fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests B are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years@ (World Bank and the United Nations University 2005, p. 1, summarized and quoted in Hall 2005c, pp. 1 and 11. For Planetary Limits B The Environment, see also 1962, p. 5; 1992, p. 12; 2002, p. 23; and 2004, p. 29 of the present document).

(2005, continued)

6. Warning: Planetary Limits B Oil:

a. Exaggerated publically announced Reserves: The eleven countries which were members of OPEC as of August 2006, account for:

i. 40 percent of the total world oil production.

ii. 65 percent of the world=s Aproven@ (actually claimed) remaining oil reserves.

OPEC reserves should be regarded as claimed rather than Aproven@ because the quota of oil which any member country is allowed to produce is, in part, determined by the size of its stated reserves. The incentive to exaggerate reserves is very strong. Huge jumps in claimed reserves have not been associated with the discovery of any new fields. The data are extremely implausible at face value, and suggest mendacity.

See Graph No. 4, AHistory of OPEC proved Reserves,@ p. 59 of the present document.

Internal Kuwaiti documents obtained by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly indicate that Kuwait=s true reserves are less than half its government=s claimed amount (Staniford-Chen 2006, p. 2. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, p. 1. For Planetary Limits B Oil, see also 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; and 2004, p. 30 of the present document).

(2005, continued)

b. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has about one-fourth of the world=s Aproven@ (actually claimed) oil reserves (264,000,000,000 barrels) (Klare 2005, p. 4).

i No Evidence of Spare Capacity: The spare capacity of Saudi Arabia is a state secret. Some say the country has such capacity (the only country for which this claim is made), but Saudi Arabia=s own production statistics tell a different story. Production has been level from mid-2004 through 2005, without an increase, as would normally be expected, in response to the hurricanes of September 2005 (Campbell 2005, pp. 134-135. Staniford-Chen 2006, p. 6. Heinberg 2006).

ii. At or very near its Peak Production: In his 2005 book, Twilight in the desert B the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy, Matthew Simmons, oil industry investment banker, writes:

ASaudi Arabian production is at or very near its peak sustainable volume . . . and it is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future@ (Emphases in the original. Simmons 2005, quoted in Klare 2005, pp. 3 and 6).

(2005, continued)

c. The Importance of Saudi Arabia: In his review of Simmons= book, Twilight in the desert,@ Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, writes:

AThe moment that Saudi production goes into permanent decline, the Petroleum Age as we know it will draw to a close. Oil will still be available on international markets, but not in the abundance to which we have become accustomed, and not at a price that many of us will be able to afford. Transportation, and everything it affects B which is to say, virtually the entire world economy B will be much, much more costly. The cost of food will also rise, as modern agriculture relies to an extraordinary extent on petroleum products for tilling, harvesting, pest protection, processing, and delivery. Many other products made with petroleum B paints, plastics, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and so forth B will also prove far more costly. Under these circumstances, a global economic contraction B with all the individual pain and hardship that it would surely produce B appears nearly inevitable@ (Klare 2005, p. 7).

(2005, continued)

d. World Production on a Plateau: Since mid-2004, average world daily oil production has been bumpy but essentially flat B despite the strong incentive of high oil prices. Lack of refinery capacity, often cited as an explanation for the plateau, cannot account for this leveling of production, because were it so, heavy, hard to refine oil would be cheap. It is not (Staniford-Chen 2006, p. 3).

e. Production on a Plateau both in OPEC and non-OPEC Countries: Production is on a plateau both in OPEC and non-OPEC countries (Staniford-Chen 2006, pp. 3-4).

f. The major Oil Companies have not increased Production: Since mid-2002, despite the wish to do so, the ten major international oil companies have not increased production. The one notable exception is BP which has had access to a resurgent Russian production via a subsidiary (Staniford-Chen 2006, p. 4).

g. Decline in Production in many Countries: Of the 48 significant oil-producing nations, 33 (69 percent) are past their peak of production. This compares with the estimate by Richard Duncan in 2003 that of the 44 significant oil-producing nations, 24 (55 percent) were past their peak in production (Heinberg 2006. For Richard Duncan=s 2003 estimate, see 2003, p. 26 of the present document).

(2005, continued)

h. Inadequate new Production Capacity: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that every year, new production capacity is needed to:

i. Offset Decline: The decline of present fields is 1,460,000,000 barrels per year (4,000,000 barrels per day).

ii. Meet increased Demand: The increased demand, particularly from China, India and the United States, is 730,000,000 barrels per year (2,000,000 barrels per day).

This is a total of 2,190,000,000 barrels per year (6,000,000 barrels a day) of new production capacity needed every year. It translates to 10,950,000,000 barrels per year (30,000,000 barrels per day) new production capacity needed by 2010 (International Energy Agency 2005, cited in Heinberg 2006).

Chris Skrebowski, Editor of the United Kingdom Petroleum Review, reports that his tabulation of oil field mega-projects in construction, shows that in 2005, new production capacity in development was only 6,023,000,000 barrels per year (16,500,000 barrels per day) B just 55 percent of the new capacity needed (Heinberg 2006).

i. High Depletion Rate: The world oil depletion rate (production as a percentage of total amount available to extract) is 2.6 percent per year (Heinberg 2006).

(2005, continued)

k. Catastrophe in the Making: Robert Hirsch, at Science Application International Corporation, San Diego, CA, having completed a study of peak oil at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy, reports his findings thus:

AThe peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking@ (Hirsch 2005, quoted in Heinberg 2006).

7. Warning: The Economy of the United States: The United States consumes 6,424,000,000 barrels per year (17,600,000 barrels per day). It imports 4,453,000,000 barrels per year (12,200,000 barrels per day) B 70 percent of its consumption (Wikipedia 2006, AList of Oil trading Nations,@ p. 1. For U.S. imports in 2004, see 2004, p. 32 of the present document).

See Graph No. 5, AList of Oil Trading Nations,@ p. 60 of the present document.

The country pays US$1,000,000,000 per day for the direct costs of it oil imports. This figure excludes indirect costs. This is 40 percent of the US$2,500,000,000 per day the country borrows in order to finance its trade deficit (Heinberg 2006. For the Economy of the United States, see also 2002, p. 23 of the present document).

2005-2009:

World Peak in Conventional Oil Production: APeak Oil@ is the absolute peak in world oil production, presaging future and permanent shortage (Korpela 2005, p. 13. McKillop 2005, pp. 2, 8 and 99. Vaux 2005, p. 274. Heinberg 2004, pp. 2, 19 and 26).

Conventional oil is defined as that oil which is easy and cheap to extract. It excludes oil from coal and shale, bitumen, heavy and extra-heavy oil, deepwater oil, polar oil, and liquids derived from natural gas (Campbell 2005, pp. 134-135).

No substitute is in sight which would come close to matching the utility, convenience and low cost of oil and gas (Korpela 2005, p. 23. Campbell 2005, pp. 46 and 55. McKillop 2005, pp. 152 and 192. Heinberg 2004, pp. 27 and 49).

2006:

Warning: Planetary Limits B Agriculture: The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) predicts that in 2006, world cereal crops reserves will be 61 percent of what they were in 1999 B 416,700,000,000 kilograms (416.7 million tons) in 2006, compared to 684,500,000,000 kilograms (684.5 million tons) in 1999.

Grain reserves since 1999 have been as follows:

Year Total Reserves World Population Per Capita Reserves

(Million Tons) (Kilograms)

1999 684.5 5,997,038,027 114.4

2000 633.4 6,073,265,234 104.4

2001 584.2 6,149,102,002 95.0

2002 466.6 6,224,186,508 75.0

2003 371.9 6,229,264,997 59.0

2004 466.4 6,375,006,404 73.2

2005 461.7 6,451,429,868 71.6

2006 (expected) 416.7 6,528,089,562 63.8

(U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, cited in Heinberg 2004, p. 21. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization 2006, p. 4. For Planetary Limits B Agriculture, see also 2003, p. 25; 2004, p. 29; and 2005, p. 34 of the present document).

See Graph No. 6, AWorld Cereal Production and Utilization,@ and Graph No. 7, AWorld Cereal Stock-to-Utilization Ratio,@ p. 61 of the present document.

2007:

Predicted Country Peak in Oil Production: In Russia, oil production is predicted to peak (Heinberg 2004, p. 32).

2008-2035:

Predicted Rate of decrease in Oil Production: The average fall-off (rate of decay) of oil production during the period 2008 to 2035, is predicted to be 4 percent per year B with sharper declines, perhaps above 6 percent at the beginning of the period, lower rates in the middle of the period, and faster rates returning near the end of the period (McKillop 2004, p. 5).

2010:

Predicted World Peak Production of all liquid Hydrocarbons: The peak production of all liquid hydrocarbons is likely to usher in the final energy crisis (Korpela 2005, pp. 13 and 21. Campbell 2005, p. 46).

2025:

1. Predicted World Oil Production: 50 percent: World oil production is predicted to be 15,330,000,000 barrels per year (42,000,000 barrels per day) B 50 percent of what it was in 2004 (McCluney 2005, p. 177. McKillop 2005, p. 207. Heinberg 2006).

2. Predicted Peak in World Natural Gas Production (Campbell 2005, p. 46. For natural gas, see also 2003, p. 27; and 2035, p. 43 of the present document).

2035:

1. Predicted World Oil Production: 25 percent: World oil production is predicted to be 7,665,000,000 barrels per year (21,000,000 barrels per day B 25 percent of what it was in 2004.

Due to demographic growth already engendered, the per capita consumption of oil is predicted to be 5 percent of what it was in 2004 (McKillop 2005, pp. 5-6, 186 and 207. Heinberg 2004, pp. 31-32. Heinberg 2006).

2. Predicted World Natural Gas Production: 40 percent: Natural gas production is predicted to be 40 percent that of 2000.

Due to demographic growth already engendered, the per capita consumption of natural gas is predicted to be 35 percent of what it was in 2000 (McKillop 2005, pp. 5-6 and 186. Heinberg 2004, pp. 31-32. For natural gas, see also 2003, p. 27; and 2025, p. 43 of the present document).

3. Predicted Peak in World Coal Production: Between 2025 and 2040, world coal production is predicted to peak at 5,500,000,000,000 kilograms per year (5.5 billion tons) B twice the world coal production of 2,500,000,000,0000 kilograms in 2004 (2.5 billion tons).

At its peak, the energy provided by coal will be 35 percent of the commercial energy obtained in 2004 from gas and oil (McKillop 2005, p. 257. Vaux, p. 276).

Oil and gas are predicted to be relegated to minor fuels. Advanced societies are likely to have 35 percent of all the commercial energy they had been consuming in 2004 (McKillop 2005, p. 129).

2050:

1. Predicted World Productive Land: It is predicted that the earth will have available 0.8 hectare of productive land per capita (Trainer 2005, p. 279. For Productive Land, see also 1999, p. 17).

2. Predicted End of a Civilization: The fossil fuel consumer civilization is predicted to be in its terminal crisis (McKillop 2005, p. 190).

Major Topics discussed in the Present Document

World Population: Year 1, p. 2; 1650, p. 2; 1850, p. 2; 1930, p. 3; 1960, p. 5; 1975, p. 9; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2005, p. 33.

Gene Pool:

Damaging the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: 1945, p. 3; 1973, p. 8; 1991, p. 11; 1992-2003, p. 13; 1994-1995, p. 13; 1998, p. 16; 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28; 2005, p. 33.

Modifying the Human, Animal and Plant Gene Pool: 2002, p. 23; 2003, p. 24; 2004, p. 28.

Warning: Planetary Limits:

Agriculture: 2003, p. 25; 2004, p. 29; 2005, p. 34; 2006, p. 41.

Agriculture vs Global Warming: 1996, p. 14.

Atmosphere: 1800, p. 2; 2004, p. 29.

Environment: 1962, p. 5; 1992, p. 12; 2002, p. 23; 2004, p. 29; 2005, p. 34.

Fish: 2002, p. 23; 2003, p. 25.

Global Warming: 1995, p. 13; 1999, p. 17; 2001, p. 21; 2004, p. 29.

Land:

Cropland: 1960, p. 5; 1999, p. 17.

Productive Land: 1999, p. 17; 2050, p. 43.

Natural Gas: 2003, p. 27; 2035, p. 43.

Oil: 1956, p. 4; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18; 2001, p. 21; 2003, p. 26; 2004, p. 30; 2005, p. 35.

Resources: 1972, p. 7; 1992, p. 12; 1999, p. 17; 2004, p. 29.

Water: 1999, p. 16; 2001, p. 20.

Oil:

World:

Energy Equivalent of Oil: 1859, p. 2; 2004, p. 30.

Kyoto Protocol: 1997, p. 15; 2001, p. 22.

Oil cheap and easy: 1939, p. 3; 1962, p. 5.

Oil Consumption: 1990, p. 11; 1999, p. 18; 2000, p. 19; 2001, p. 21; 2004, p. 30.

AOil Shocks@: 1973, p. 8; 1979, p. 9.

Oil Subsidy to Agriculture: 1910, p. 3; 1940, p. 3; 1980, p. 10; 2004, p. 31.

Oil Surplus/Deficit: 1964, p. 6; 1981, p. 10; 1999, p. 18.

Sources of Energy: 1850, p. 2; 1960, p. 5; 2000, p. 19; 2004, p. 30.

The United States:

The Economy of the United States: 2002, p. 23; 2005, p. 40.

The United States will go to War for Oil: 1980, p. 10; 1997, p. 15.

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ADark Continent, Black Gold@ (pp. 99-104).

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AThe Myth of decoupling@ (pp. 197-216).

ACrash and Crumble B Oil Shocks and the Bourse@ (pp. 217-227).

AThe Chinese Car Bomb@ (pp. 228-232).

APrice Signals and Global Energy Transition@ (pp. 237-254).

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AThe last Oil Wars@ (pp. 259-264).

AMusing along@ (pp. 289-294).

In Andrew McKillop with Sheila Newman, Editors. 2005. The final energy crisis. Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto. (Andrew McKillop is a founding member of the International Association of Energy Economics, Asian Chapter).

Moret, Leuren,

2003. ALeuren Moret speaking on Depleted Uranium.@ Nuclear Holocaust and the Politics of Radiation Conference, Los Altos, CA, April 21. Recorded and transcribed by Paul Goettlich.

http://www.mindfully.org/Nucs/2003/DU-Leuren-Moret21apr03.htm.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005d. ASilent Omnicide B The Destruction of the Human Gene Pool,@ April 16 (13 pages, unpublished).

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005d. ASilent Omnicide B The Destruction of the Human Gene Pool,@ April 16 (13 pages, unpublished).

2004b. ADepleted Uranium B Dirty Bombs, Dirty Missiles, Dirty Bullets B A Death Sentence here and abroad.@ San Francisco Bay View. August 18.

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005d. ASilent Omnicide B The Destruction of the Human Gene Pool,@ April 16 (13 pages, unpublished).

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2003. AOil today, Water tomorrow.@ February 16 (4 pages, unpublished).

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005g. AGlobal Trends B Predictable Atrocities@ June 4 (29 pages, unpublished).

Phillips, Peter, and Project Censored. 2004. Censored 2005 B the top 25 censored stories. New York, N.Y.: Seven Stories.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005d. ASilent Omnicide B The Destruction of the Human Gene Pool,@ April 16 (13 pages, unpublished).

Postel, Sandra. 1999. Pillar of sand B can the irrigation miracle last? New York, N.Y.: W.W. Norton; cited in Maude Barlow and Tony Clarke. 2002. Blue gold B the fight to stop the corporate theft of the world=s water. New York, N.Y.: the New Press, p. 60.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2003. AOil today, Water tomorrow.@ February 16 (4 pages, unpublished).

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005g. AGlobal Trends B Predictable Atrocities@ June 4 (29 pages, unpublished).

Renner, Michael et al. 2005. State of the world 2005 B redefining global security. A worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. New York, N.Y.: W.W. Norton.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005a. AThe World our Children will die in.@ March 12 (11 pages, unpublished).

Saint Aroman, Mark, and Andre Crouzet, 2005. AFrench Nuclear Power and the Global Market B an Economic Illusion@ (pp. 116-125), in Andrew McKillop with Sheila Newman, Editors. 2005. The final energy crisis. Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto. (Marc Saint Aroman and Andre Crouzet work at the Reseau Sortir du Nucleaire, Lyon, France).

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http://seclab.cs.ucdavis.edu/~stanifor/. (Stuart Staniford-Chen is assistant adjunct professor in the Computer Security Group at the University of California, Davis, CA).

Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development (ARE), Berne, Switzerland.

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005b. AAsk the Mosquitoes.@ March 19 (13 pages, unpublished).

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2005g. AGlobal Trends B Predictable Atrocities@ June 4 (29 pages, unpublished).

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Graphs

Graph No. 1: United States Bureau of the Census.

2006a, AHistorical Estimates of World Population.@

http://census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html. Updated August 24, 2006. Accessed October 11, 2006.

2006b, ATotal Mid-year Population for the World, 1950-2050.@

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html. Updated August 24, 2006. Accessed October 11, 2006.

Graph is on p. 56 and is referred to on pp. 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 9, 16, 20 and 33 of the present document.

Graph No. 2: Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, 2003. AThe Growing Gap B Discoveries and Production.@ Uppsala University, Sweden. Reproduced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), p. 3.

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsp/. Accessed October 13, 2006.

http://www.isv.uu.se/uhdsg/

Graph is on p. 57 and is referred to on p. 27 of the present document.

Graph No. 3: Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, 2004. AOil and Gas Liquids B 2004 Scenario. Uppsala University, Sweden. Reproduced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), p. 1.

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsp/. Updated by Colin Campbell, May 14, 2004. Accessed October 13, 2006.

http://www.isv.uu.se/uhdsg/

Graph is on p. 58 and is referred to on p. 30 of the present document.

Graph No. 4: Staniford-Chen, Stuart, 2006. AHistory of OPEC proved Reserves.@ The Oil Drum B Discussions about Energy and our Future.@ March 1, p. 2.

http://www.theoildrum.com.storyonly/2006/3/1/3402/63420. Accessed October 6, 2006.

Graph is on p. 59 and is referred to on p. 35 of the present document.

Graph No. 5: Wikipedia, 2006. AList of Oil trading Nations.@

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Chart-of-Oil-Trading-Nations.gif. Updated October 2, 2006. Accessed October 2, 2006.

Graph is on p. 60 and is referred to on p. 40 of the present document.

Graphs No. 6 and 7: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2006. AGlobal Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.@ Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2, July, p. 6.

http://www.fao.org/docre/009/j8104e03.htm. Accessed October 7, 2006.

Graphs are on p. 61 and are referred to on p. 41 of the present document.