July 22, 2010

One cubic Mile

Our Energy Consumption

In 2006, the amount of energy humanity consumed was

Equivalent to that contained in 3.0 cubic miles of oil (CMO).

Of this total, the equivalent of 2.5 CMO (84 percent)

Came from three fossil fuel sources – oil, coal and natural

Gas – which, upon burning, caused the emission into

The atmosphere of 24 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

What would we have to do to stop these emissions,

And leave our children the legacy of a livable planet?

That year (2006), oil accounted for 1.1 CMO.

Imagine a swamp, more than a mile wide, long and deep.

Imagine 1.2 trillion gallons. Imagine 27.8 billion barrels.

Imagine the energy in 153 x 10¹⁵ British Thermal Units.

Coal accounted for the equivalent of 0.8 CMO,

Natural gas, for the equivalent of 0.6 CMO.

Adjusting for the inefficiency of converting thermal energy

To electricity, nuclear power (mostly fission) gave us the

Equivalent of 0.2 CMO.¹ In total, non-renewable sources

Accounted for 89 percent of our energy consumption.

Biomass (primarily wood) gave us the equivalent of 0.19 CMO,

Hydro-electric power, the equivalent of 0.17 CMO.

The other renewable sources trailed far behind.

Wind provided less than 0.02 CMO-equivalents.

Biofuel, geothermal, solar thermal, and photovoltaic

Sources, each gave us only about 0.01 CMO-eq.

The projected Demand

In 2006, world population was 6.5 billion, projected to

Be 9.6 billion by 2050. What will future demand be?

During the 41 years, 1965 to 2006, global demand

For energy grew at an average of 2.6 percent per year –

Meaning that it was doubling every 27 years. At that rate,

By 2050, energy demand is projected to be 9.0 CMO-eq.

This “business-as-usual” scenario might be an

Over-estimate, as other factors may come into play.

A medium growth rate of 1.8 percent per year,

Gives an energy demand of 6.4 CMO-eq. by 2050.

A low growth rate of 0.8 percent per year,

Gives an energy demand of 4.0 CMO-eq. by 2050.

For comparison, globally, in 1940, energy consumption

Was 0.5 CMO-eq. In 1965, it was 1.0 CMO-eq.²

Wind

How would we produce 1 CMO-eq. from wind power?

Assuming 30 percent efficiency, total capacity would need

To be 6 billion kilowatts – accomplished, for instance, by

Having 3 million turbines, each generating 2,000 kilowatts.

At 2 million dollars a turbine, installment

Costs would be 6 trillion dollars.

The area needed would be 580,000 square miles –

Equal to one percent of the earth’s total land area

Of 57,500,000 square miles, or 15 percent of

The United States’ area of 3,800,000 square miles.

Factors limiting wind power include storage capacity,

Noise, transmission lines, and paths of migratory birds.

Solar

How would we produce 1 CMO-eq. from solar power?

At 20 percent efficiency, the area required would

Be 22,000 square miles, equal to 0.6 percent of

The United States’ area of 3,800,000 square miles.

Factors limiting solar power include storage, the large

Infra-structure, transmission lines, and ecological damage.

Rooftop photovoltaic systems cannot provide 1 CMO-eq.

At 20 percent efficiency, a 2.1 kilowatt system, covering

120 square feet, produces 3,600 kilowatt-hours of electricity

Per year. A total of 4.3 billion such systems would be needed.³

There are not enough roofs in the world to provide the area.

Five persons per household implies less than 1.3 billion roofs.

Biomass

Waste biomass cannot be scaled up to provide 1 CMO-eq.,

But how about plant biomass? The production of 1 CMO-eq.

Of gasoline from Brazilian eucalyptus trees would

Require plantations on 8,000,000 square miles of land.

The earth’s arable land is only 5,500,000 square miles.

The area of the United States is 3,800,000 square miles.

The production of 1 CMO-eq. of ethanol from corn would

Require planting on 1,200,000 square miles – an area equal

To 22 percent of the earth’s arable land area of 5,500,000

Square miles, or 32 percent of the United States’ area.

Hydropower

Hydropower is so destructive of both lives and ecology that,

At most, we might double its meager 0.17 CMO-eq. contribution.

Geothermal, tidal, wave

The earth cools, releasing 7 CMO-eq. of heat per year, but

This geothermal source is only obtainable where continental

Plates are colliding. Tidal and wave power are so

Ecologically disruptive that they cannot be scaled up.

Nuclear

Nuclear power is not renewable. Scaling it up to 1 CMO-eq.

Per year, would deplete uranium supplies in mere decades.

How would we produce 1 CMO-eq. from nuclear energy?

At 85 percent efficiency, in a “once-through” mode, a 900,000

Kilowatt pressurized water reactor produces 7 billion kilowatt-

Hours of electricity per year. We would need 2,283 such units.⁴

We would use 350,000 tons of natural uranium, which

Would require moving 525,000,000 tons of earth.⁵

Nuclear wastes remain radioactive for millions

Of years. Nuclear power plants are subject to

Accidents and terrorism. The technology increases

The chances of proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Us vs. our Children

Rich countries are dismantling the (1997) Kyoto Protocol,

Turning their sights toward geo-engineering the climate.

The chances of bequeathing our children a

Livable world do not look good at this time.

Notes

1. One British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 0.0003 kilowatt-hour.

However, to account for the fact that when the thermal energy of a fossil fuel (oil, coal or natural gas) is converted to electricity, 66 percent is dissipated as heat, Crane et al have treated 1 BTU as if it equaled 0.0001 kilowatt-hour. Simply considering energy equivalence, 1 CMO-eq. of fossil fuel would equal 44.8 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours. With the adjustment, 1 CMO-eq. of fossil fuel equals only 15.3 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours.

Throughout the present work, the thermal equivalence of 1 BTU = 0.0001 kilowatt-hours, has been used for all calculations of the output of sources generating electricity directly (such as wind, photovoltaic, hydroelectric, geothermal, and nuclear).

2. For purposes of comparison also, in 2006, the total consumption of the United States was 0.72 CMO-eq.(p. 49). The total photosynthetic production of the biosphere is 20 CMO-eq. per year (p. 271).

3. Including the adjustment outlined in Note 1, the electricity equivalent of one CMO is 15.3 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours. This would be achieved by having 4.3 billion rooftop systems, each producing 3,600 kilowatt-hours, for a total of 15.5 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours (See Crane et al, pp. 7, 198 and 211).

4. Including the adjustment outlined in Note 1, the electricity equivalent of one CMO is 15.3 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours. This would be achieved by having 2,283 units, each producing 7 billion kilowatt-hours, for a total of 16.0 x 10¹² kilowatt-hours.

5. If the concentration of natural uranium in the ore is 0.2 percent, then, in order to obtain 350,000 tons of uranium, one has to mine (350,000 / 0.2)x 100 =175,000,000 tons of ore. The ratio of earth moved to ore recovered is typically 3:1. The amount of earth which has to be moved is (175,000,000 x 3) = 525,000,000 tons. This moved earth would, on average, contain 350,000 tons of uranium and (525,000,000 - 350,000) = 524,700,000 tons of tailings and dirt. Its proportion of uranium is 0.07 percent.

Natural uranium has to be enriched so it can be used as a fuel. From 350,000 tons of natural uranium, 50,000 tons of uranium fuel would be obtained. This is what the plant would use in one year (See Crane et al, p. 175).

References

Principal Reference:

Crane, Hewitt, Kinderman, Edwin, and Malhotra, Ripudaman. 2010. A cubic mile of oil – realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University.

Specific Subjects: Pp. vii, 6-8, 21, 36-38, 237 and 264-265 (total energy consumption); 7, 198, 211 and 265 (during the conversion of fossil fuels to electricity, 66 percent of the energy is dissipated as heat); 10 (24 billion tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere yearly); 13, 78-79, 230 and 233 (energy demand projections); 14, 80, 190-191, 229 and 268 (limitations of renewables); 24 and 78 (global energy use, 1940, 1965); 157 and 169 (limitations of nuclear power); 174-175 and 268 (requirements for 1 CMO of nuclear power); 179 (geothermal energy); 183 and 228 (hydropower); 185-186 (wave power, tidal power); 192-193 and 269 (requirements for 1 CMO from wind power); 198 and 211 (requirements for 1 CMO from solar power); 211 and 270 (requirements for 1 CMO from photovoltaic systems); 218 (the earth’s arable land: 5.5 million square miles); 218-219 and 271 [requirements for 1 CMO of gasoline from wood, requirements for 1 CMO of biofuel from average biomass (5,000,000 square miles)]; 220 (waste biomass); 221 (requirements for 1 CMO of ethanol from corn).

SRI International: At the time of writing this book, the three authors were working for SRI International, which describes itself on its website (http://www.sri.com), as “an independent, non-profit research institute conducting client-sponsored research and development for government agencies, commercial businesses, foundations, and other organizations.” The list of clients is extensive: U.S. Government Agencies include the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); the Departments of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force; the Office of Naval Research (ONR); the U.S. Department of Defense; and the U.S. Department of Energy. International Government Agencies include the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority; and the World Bank. Foundations include the American Express Foundation; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Commercial Businesses include the Chevron Corporation; Conoco; Monsanto; and VISA. Venture Firms include Kleiner Perkins; Oak Investment Partners; St. Paul Venture Partners; and U.S. Venture Partners. Industry Consortia include the Electric Power Research Institute; and the Gas Technology Institute. The staff of the Institute numbers more than 1,600.

Other References:

Aubuchon, Vaughn, 2010. “World Population Growth.” Vaughn’s Summaries.

http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com. Updated June 13. Accessed July 22, 2010.

(Aubuchon’s 2010 projection, based in part on data from the United States Government, Department of Commerce, is a population of 9.85 million in 2050).

Bongaarts, John, 2001. “Household Size and Composition in the developing World.” Population Council, Policy Research Division, Working Paper Number 144, 38 pages.

Internet address incomprehensible. Accessed July 22, 2010.

(Average household size in 43 developing countries ranges from 4.8 in Latin America, to 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa).

United States Government, Bureau of the Census, undated. “Total mid-year Population for the World, 1950-2050.”

http://census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html. Accessed July 25, 2010.

(The Census Bureau’s undated projection is a population of 9.28 billion in 2050).

Various Internet Sources:

Earth, land area: 57,500,000 square miles.

United States, total area: 3,800,000 square miles.

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