May 28, 2010

Oil: Changing the Course of Evolution

Evolution traces its route on a terrain of continent pathways.

Historical contingency is capricious. Nature is indifferent.

Who would have predicted, for example, that the dinosaurs,

Having dominated most terrestrial niches for 165,000,000 years,

Would suddenly disappear, after a collision between two asteroids

Sent a fragment hurling to Earth, 65,000,000 years ago?

The extinction of the dinosaurs made space for the species

We know today, among which were our mammal ancestors.

Modern Homo sapiens is 67,000 years old. Who would have predicted,

In 1850, when, in modern societies, 83 percent of the work done

Came from either animal or human labor, that within 160 years,

Oil, then not even discovered in the West, would change forever

The course of evolution? In 1859, the 21 meter-deep well, drilled

By Edwin Drake, near Titusville, PA, initiated the era of cheap oil.

Oil made slavery superfluous. One gallon of gasoline could

Generate power equivalent to six humans doing hard labor

For one week. The gas tank of an average car, which we fill

In 2-3 minutes, contains 15 x 10⁶ (Megawatts) of energy –

10 times the peak power output of a standard wind turbine,

625 times the photosynthetic power of a square Kilometer of land.

By 2010, nothing in the world, whether material, social, cultural,

Political or personal, had not been touched by oil – our food,

Our water, our air and atmosphere, our industries, commerce

And transportation, our wars, our diseases and their treatment,

The rising social and economic inequality which characterizes us,

The cyberspace we constructed, our species-mates on the planet.

Oil provides 37 percent of the energy humanity consumes.

Oil and natural gas together provide 61 percent. And now,

Not only are these source of energy running out, but the planet’s

Energy balance, disturbed by the carbon dioxide we emit by

Burning oil, natural gas and coal, spells extinction for many species,

And death for many of us – life’s 6^th Great Extinction Spasm.

From 1880 to 2007, global temperature rose by 0.76 degrees Celsius.

This is the warming to which the climate system is reacting now.

Positive feedbacks are already evident, but more is to come.

Present atmospheric greenhouse gases make inevitable a warming

Of 2.4 degrees, with an uncertainty range of 1.4-4.3 degrees –

A range which includes the tipping point of many climate elements.

The tipping point of a climate element is that temperature at which

The element undergoes a non-linear, often qualitative transition.

Southwestern North America is now transitioning to a dry climate.

The Arctic Sea Ice is expected to tip at 1.0-2.5 degrees of warming;

The Greenland Ice Sheet, at 1.5-2.5 degrees; the Continental

Ice Caps, at 1.5-3.5 degrees; the Amazon Rainforest at 2.0 degrees.

The Boreal Forests, the West African Monsoon, and the

Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation all have a tipping point

At between 3.5 and 5.5 degrees. The El Nino Southern Oscillation

Has a tipping point at 3.5 to 6.5 degrees. The tipping point of the

Indian Summer Monsoon is uncertain because it depends on aerosols.

The Frozen Loess in Eastern Siberia might tip at more than 9.5 degrees.

To date, we have shown no sign of reacting in a manner at all

Commensurate with the disaster we have engendered. So as to have,

By 2030, a 90 percent chance of stabilizing global temperature

At less than 2 degrees above its 1880 level, the concentration

Of greenhouse gases should not exceed 340 parts per million.

As of April 2010, the concentration was 472 parts per million.

Even a generous interpretation of our plans indicates that more

Than 3 degrees is likely, most probably 6-8 degrees, occurring

Not in a linear fashion but in steps, each of increasing devastation.

The future will not be an extrapolation of the past. We, the only

Species on Earth to have the faculty of self-consciousness, are

In the process of sharply turning the direction of evolution.

In a blink of geological time, we are curtailing our own potential

And that of the species around us. A mild, stable climate

Might have continued for another 10,000 to 20,000 years.

We are foregoing this future in exchange for a suffering

The magnitude of which will dwarf all previous human suffering.

This, for oil, for energy on demand, for an elusive good life.

A stunning choice.

Words fail.

Earth is indifferent.

How can future generations forgive?

A crime beyond comprehension.

Life consciously and intentionally extinguishing life.

References

Climate Progress, 2009. “M. I. T. doubles its 2095 Warming Projection to 10 Degrees Fahrenheit – with 866 ppm, and Arctic Warming of 20 Degrees Fahrenheit.” (Center for American Progress Action Fund). May 20. (Note: 1 degree Celsius = 5/9^th of a degree Fahrenheit).

A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, published in the Journal of Climate (American Meteorological Society), May 2009, concludes as follows:

“The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100 . . . The median surface warming [projected for 2095] is 5.2 degrees Celsius . . .” (p. 1).

Global temperature rose by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial time to 1861. Compared to pre-industrial time, therefore, the Model predicted, by 2095, a median warming of (5.2 + 0.5) = 5.7, with a range of 4.5-6.5 degrees Celsius. There was a 9 percent chance for a warming of 7.5 degrees (pp. 2-3).

Co-author Ronald Prinn explained that the amplifying feedbacks are greater than previously thought, and that hence, this projected temperature rise is almost certainly an underestimate:

“The odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur – for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in Arctic regions, [with a] subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback is just going to make it worse” (p. 2. Emphasis mine).

The predicted median atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, by 2095, was 866 (500-1,000) ppm – reflecting the increasing saturation of carbon sinks (pp. 2-3).

http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/20. Accessed May 30, 2010.

CO₂Now, 2010. “What the World needs to watch – Atmospheric CO₂ for April 2010.”

At the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, the Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), revealed that atmospheric carbon dioxide for April 2010 was 392.4 parts per million (preliminary data released May 10, 2010). The concentration a year earlier (April 2009), had been 389.5. The annual average for 2009 was 387.4. From 1750 to 2009, the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was of (387-280) / 280 = 38 percent (pp. 1-4. See also Treehugger.com, 2010, p. 1).

In 2008, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production totaled 32 billion tons – a 41 percent increase since 1990. Of these 32 billion tons, 45 percent stayed in the atmosphere, 29 percent were absorbed in land sinks, and 26 percent were absorbed by the ocean (p. 7).

http://co2now.org. Accessed May 29, 2010

Dumanoski, Dianne. 2009. The end of the long summer – why we must remake our civilization to survive on a volatile Earth. New York, N.Y.: Random House/Crown Publishing Group.

Some 410,000 years ago, when the Earth was in an orbit similar to that of today, the climate stayed mild and steady for 28,000 year. More recently, the three inter-glacial ages before the Holocene Epoch, each lasted 6,000 years. This is the basis for the supposition that, without human interference, our present mild and stable climate might have lasted a total of 20,000-30,000 years (p. 81).

In 2005, in Nature, Oxford University scientist David Stainforth, predicted a small probability of an 11 degrees Celsius level of warming (p. 90).

Foster, John Bellamy, Brett Clark, and Richard York. 2008. Critique of intelligent design – materialism versus creationism, from antiquity to the present. New York, N.Y.: Monthly Review.

Discussing the history of the dinosaurs, Foster, Clark and York conclude:

“Lineages that over the long haul of evolutionary history go extinct and those that survive are not typically distinguished from one another in a systematic way. Rather, historical contingency is capricious; and nature is indifferent” (p. 173).

“Evolution clearly has no direction or ultimate purpose. Rather, evolution wanders across a terrain of continent pathways, constrained by the day-to-day demands of natural selection, and periodically jostled by unforeseen events. Once the fundamental importance of contingency is properly appreciated, we are left with the deep recognition that humans were not somehow meant to exist, that evolution does not ‘progress,’ and that there is no general tendency for evolution to produce intelligent beings such as ourselves” (pp. 173-174).

Hall, Francoise,

2005a. “Ask the Mosquitoes.” (Poem). March 19 (13 pages, unpublished).

The History of Life (pp. 3-6).

2005b. “The History of War – with a Critique of Lloyd deMause’s Position that harsh Child Rearing Modes are the Cause of War.” December 11 (42 pages, unpublished).

Great Extinction Spasms occurred 440,000,000, 365,000,000, 245,000,000, 210,000,000 and 65,000,000 years ago. The last ended the Age of Reptiles. The earliest primates and mammals then made their appearance, and the vegetation became essentially modern. Recovery to the original level of diversity took 20,000 years (pp. 1-25).

2006a. “Life.” (Poem). June 10 (4 pages, unpublished).

Three billion years ago, microscopic, oxygen-producing organisms swarmed in the oceans, and began the task they would perform for the next 2.46 billion years – that of converting the iron in the water, from its ferrous (FeO₂) form to its oxidized, ferric (FeO₃) form.

Some 1.2 billion years later (1.8 billion years ago), most of the iron had been converted, and the oxygen which the organisms produced was beginning to fill the atmosphere. Atmospheric oxygen level was now one percent.

Some 1.3 billion years later (540 million years ago), atmospheric oxygen was at the 21 percent level we have today. A strong ozone layer had been formed, which screened out the short-wave, ultraviolet radiation inimical to life. The task had taken (3,000,000,000 – 540,000,000) = 2,460,000,000 years. The land was now habitable.

Within 90 million years (450 million years ago), the first land plants appeared. Land animals would soon follow.

The poem is dedicated to these microscopic organisms (pp. 1-4).

2006b. “The brief and disastrous Reign of Homo petrolatum.” September 30 (61 pages, unpublished).

Sources of Energy: In 1850, of all the work being done in modern societies, such as the United States, for example, 83 percent came from animate labor (muscle power) B 65 percent from the labor of domesticated animals, and 18 percent from the labor of humans. Fuel-powered machines provided 17 percent of the total power consumed (p. 2).

The Discovery of Oil in the U.S.: In 1859, in a well drilled 21 meters deep, near Titusville, PA, Edwin Drake struck oil. This was the first oil-producing well in the United States. Cheap oil then became increasingly available (p. 2).

Energy Equivalent of Oil:

1. One gallon of gasoline can generate power equivalent to six humans doing hard labor for one week (p. 2).

2. The average gas tank in a car B filled in 2-3 minutes B contains 15 Megawatts of energy (p. 30).

2009. “Global Warming – pre-Copenhagen.” June 21 (108 pages, unpublished).

Risk of a 2-degree global Temperature Rise: In order to have a 50 percent chance of limiting a global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, the concentration of greenhouse gases needs to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO₂-equivalents. This level has already been surpassed (p. 30).

Carbon dioxide and Greenhouse Gas Levels:

* In 2005, atmospheric carbon dioxide was 379 ppm, and total greenhouse gases were 455 ppm CO₂-equivalents. The greenhouse gas level was, therefore, 100 x (455 - 379) / 379 = 20 percent higher than the CO₂ level (p. 28).

* In 2007, atmospheric carbon dioxide was 384 ppm, and total greenhouse gases were 460 ppm CO₂-equivalents. The greenhouse gas level was, therefore, 100 x (460 - 384) / 384 = 20 percent higher than the CO₂ level (p. 28).

* In 2100, atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to reach 650 ppm, giving a greenhouse gas level of 800 – a difference of 100 x (800 - 650) / 650 = 23 percent (Hall 2010a, p. 12).

It seems safe to assume, therefore, that the carbon dioxide concentration of 393.7 for March 2010, reported at Norway’s Zeppelin Station on the Arctic Svalbard Archipelago, and that of 392.4 ppm for April 2010, reported at the Mauna Loa Observatory, signify a greenhouse gas concentration 20 percent higher – that is, 393 + (20 / 100) x 393 = 471.6 ppm. This is the figure quoted in the present poem (Treehugger.com 2010, p. 1. CO₂Now 2010, p. 2).

(In 2009, at the Mauna Loa, the level for April was 389.5 and the average for the year was 387.4, a difference of (389.5 - 387.4) = 2.1 ppm. The level for the year was 2 ppm lower than the level for April (CO₂Now 2010, pp. 3-4).

Predicted Warming: The 2007 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report predicted a warming of 1.6-6.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Since, from 2000 to 2009, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions and sea level rise all have been at the upper end of the projected ranges, and since the importance of tipping points has been recognized since then, the 6-8 degrees warming quoted in the present poem seems reasonable (see p. 29).

Tipping Points: See pp 44-50.

2010a. “Either Equality among Humans or planetary Devastation.” (100 pages, unpublished).

Risk of a 2-degree global Temperature Rise: In order to meet the goal of a 90 percent chance of world temperature stabilization below 2 degrees of warming by 2030, atmospheric carbon dioxide must not exceed 340 parts per million (ppm) (p. 8).

Predicted Warming considering Countries’ Pledges: As they were stated in early December, just before the opening of the 15^th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), December 7-18, 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark, the emissions reductions commitment and pledges proposed by developed and developing countries would allow, by 2100, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to reach 650 parts per million – meaning a total greenhouse gas concentration of nearly 800 ppm carbon dioxide equivalents.

At an atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent concentration of 800 parts per million, the chances are 50 percent that, by 2100, global temperature will rise by 3.5 (2.8-4.3) degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. (The uncertainty range is due to different possible interpretations of national pledges). The chances are 25 percent that the rise will be of 4.0 degrees. This is without considering either the tipping of individual climate elements, or the interaction between the various climate tipping elements (pp. 9 and 12).

2010b. “Energy, Water, Food, Climate and the Capitalism that drives the tragic Trends.” March 16 (102 pages, unpublished).

World Consumption of Oil and Natural Gas: In 2006, oil provided 37.3 percent, and natural gas 23.3 percent of the world’s primary energy consumption (p. 1).

Predicted Warming: In their paper, “Reframing the Climate Change Challenge in Light of post-2000 Emission Trends” (2008), authors Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, at the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK, warn:

“The current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 parts per million per volume (ppmv) CO₂-equivalents, and even an optimistic interpretation suggests [that] stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO₂-eq. is improbable” (p. 62).

Climate Forcing: Earth absorbs 240 watts of sunlight per square meter (m²) of its surface. The equivalent of 10-20 watts per m² of forcing is sufficient to destabilize the climate to either “snowball Earth” or “runaway warming.” From 1750 to 2000, the total forcing was of 3.0 watts per m². The carbon dioxide component of this forcing was 1.5 watt per m², a third of it (0.5 watt) from 1980 to 2000 (p. 63).

Tipping Points: See pages 65-72.

Inevitable Warming: The actually observed global warming to date, is 0.8 degrees Celsius. This is the temperature increase to which the climate system is presently reacting.

Greenhouse gas emissions, however, already have made inevitable (have “committed us” to) a warming of 2.4 (1.4-4.3) degrees compared to pre-industrial times (1880). This is because aerosols (“atmospheric brown clouds”) have masked 47 percent of the warming already engendered, and ocean thermal inertia has masked another 20 percent. To date, therefore, the climate has only reacted to 32 percent of the anthropogenic forcing. Even the most aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation steps now envisioned, will only be able to limit further additions to the committed warming. They cannot reduce the already committed greenhouse gas warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius (pp. 74-76).

Harris, Paul. 2010. World ethics and climate change – from international to global justice. Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University.

In 1999, David Pimentel, Professor of Ecology and Agriculture, at Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., estimated that it would require at least three times the earth=s entire resources and physical area to provide the world population with the material and energy consumed by an average North American citizen (Hall 2006b, p. 17).

Ignorance about the limits to the earth’s resources, as pointed out by Pimentel, and misconceptions about the impact on our civilization of the end of oil, still abound.

Not apparently realizing either the impossibility of continuing individual transportation on a worldwide basis, or the fact that hydrogen is not a source of energy (no free, unbound hydrogen exists in the world), Paul Harris, Chair of Global and Environmental Studies at the Hong Kong Institute of Education, suggests:

“Government ought . . . to do more to create economic and physical infrastructures that are consistent with cosmopolitan climate justice. This would include creating efficient, comfortable and affordable mass-transit systems while making the use of cars less attractive in the medium and long term (unless a new climate-friendly personal transport vehicle is developed), and build distribution systems for alternative energy (perhaps hydrogen)” (pp. 175-176).

Maass, Peter. 2009. Crude world – the violent twilight of oil. New York, N.Y.: Random House, Alfred A. Knopf/Borzoi.

Peter Maass quotes Polish writer Ryszard Kapuscinski (1932-2007), writing in Shah of Shahs (1982, p. 35):

“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly into the air, and falls back to earth as a rustling shower of money . . . Oil creates an illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought, blurs vision, corrupts” (p. 56).

McKibben, Bill. 2010. Eaarth – making a life on a tough new planet. New York, N.Y.: Henry Holt/Times.

In 2009, German agronomists discovered that wheat grown under the levels of carbon dioxide we expect by mid-century, will contain markedly less protein and iron, and 14 percent more lead. The study was reported by Nora Schultz, in the New Scientist, August 17, 2009, under the title, “Wheat gets worse as CO₂ rises” (pp. 154 and 233).

Treehugger.com, 2010. “CO₂ Concentration in Atmosphere reaches new Highs in 2010.” March 16.

At Norway’s Zeppelin Station, on the Arctic Svalbard Archipelago, median atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the first two weeks of March 2010, was 393.7 parts per million. It had been 393.2 during the first two weeks of March 2009 (See also under CO₂Now, 2010).

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/02. Accessed Mary 29, 2010.

Wikipedia, 2010.

“Dinosaur.”

Dinosaurs, a diverse group of reptiles, were the dominant terrestrial vertebrates for 165 million years, from 230 to 65 million years ago. Most of the dinosaur species, with the exception of some birds, and many other groups of animals became extinct after Earth was impacted by a meteorite.

In 2007, William Bottke, at the Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO, with the help of Czech scientists, determined that 160 million years ago, asteroid Baptistina (160 Kilometers in diameter), while orbiting in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, was struck by a smaller asteroid (55 Kilometers in diameter). Baptistina was shattered, forming a cluster known now as the “Baptistina family.” Fragments were sent hurling into orbits which intersected Earth’s orbit. Then, 65.5 million years ago, one of these, 10 Kilometers in diameter, hit Earth, creating the 180 Kilometer-wide Chicxulub Crater in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The impact triggered an extremely rapid mass extinction (pp. 1-5).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated May 30, 2010. Accessed May 31, 2010.

“Global Warming.”

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report indicated that from 1906 to 2005, global surface temperature increased by 0.74 degrees Celsius. Relying on 2001 data, the 2003 IPCC Report predicted a possible range for atmospheric carbon dioxide, by the year 2100, of from 541 to 970 parts per million (pp. 1, 3, 6 and 22).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated May 29, 2010. Accessed May 29, 2010.

“Greenhouse Gas.”

The pre-industrial level of atmospheric carbon dioxide was 280 parts per million (pp. 5 and 10).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated May 29, 2010. Accessed May 29, 2010.

“Orders of Magnitude (Power)”

Power Output of a Wind Turbine: The peak power output of a General Electric standard wind turbine is 1.5 Megawatt (p. 5).

Photosynthetic Power of Land: The average photosynthetic power output of land is 16-32 Kilowatts per square Kilometer (Km²) (p. 5).

If 24 Kilowatts/Km² is assumed, then an average car gas tank which has 15 x 10⁶ (Megawatts), contains 15 x 10⁶ / 24 x 10³ = 625 times the photosynthetic power of a square Kilometer of land.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated March 10, 2010. Accessed March 20, 2010.

Worldwatch Institute. 2009. State of the world 2009 – into a warming world. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton.

One ton of carbon equals 3.67 tons of carbon dioxide (p. 192).

***