November 28, 2009

Headed for Disaster

History

The Earth is one ecosystem of which humanity forms a part.

There is no “his” story. The history of humans and that of the other parts of nature is one.

Only human hubris has prevented recognition of this fact.

The history of “progress” is a monotonous tale of how people became

Increasingly adept at manipulating, and thereby degrading their “environment,”

Without protecting or preserving this “environment” on which their very lives depended.

In the collapse which has invariably followed, nature has been either

The determining factor or one of the important determining factors.

Our current global civilization has entered this last stage.

Central Jordan was settled around 7,000 B.C.E. Within 1,000 years, villages

Were being abandoned, as deforestation had caused such soil erosion

That crop yields were too small for communities to sustain themselves.

Sumerians salinized their soil beyond redemption in 700 years (3,000-2,300 B.C.E.).

This first complex society was then conquered by King Sargon of Akkad (2,370 B.C.E.)

Who established the first “empire,” thereby setting a pattern which still holds today.

Beginning around 3,000 B.C.E., and despite devastating periods of low (2,250-1,950)

And high (1,870-1,840) floods, the Nile supported a complex Egyptian society for 5,000 years –

Until 1,845 C.E., when artificial irrigation led to salinization and water-logging within decades.

The Indus valley civilization followed much the same course as Sumer, its two major towns,

Mohenjo-daro and Harappa, thriving for 400 years (2,300-1,900 B.C.E.),

Salinization and deforestation then diminishing crop yields and inviting conquest.

In China, around 1,800 B.C.E., the Shang developed a complex society in the central plain

Around the Wei and Yellow Rivers. The soil was rich, though easily eroded once denuded

Of its natural grass cover. Around 1,100 B.C.E., crops declined and the culture collapsed.

In Greece, the first signs of large-scale destruction of the land appeared about 650 B.C.E.

The 80 percent of the land not suitable for cultivation was being severely over-grazed.

By 590 B.C.E., just 60 years later, the hills of Attica, around Athens, were stripped bare of trees.

In 300 B.C.E., Italy and Sicily were still well forested. By 200 B.C.E.,

Deforestation, soil erosion, and the silting of estuaries were almost complete.

By the time Rome fell, in 476 C.E., its North African provinces, once luscious, were deserts.

Having emerged around 250 B.C.E., in Tikal (present Guatemala), the Maya civilization

Peaked around 800 C.E., then disintegrated in decades – destroyed by deforestation,

Soil erosion and silting, resulting in low crop yields, starvation, and finally, a peasant revolt.

It took 1,200 years (400-1,600 C.E.), for the Polynesians who settled Easter Island

To deforest their home. Their society, one of the most advanced in the world for the Technology and resources available to it, collapsed, reverting to near barbarism.

Human Demand:

For the past 200,000 years, the human demand for resources and with it, the inevitable

Environmental degradation, were gradual – though consistent and relentless.

In the past 200 years, however, these processes have accelerated dramatically.

It is now obvious that the life style of the high-consuming, high-energy-using

Countries can never be replicated elsewhere. It is not sustainable even for those countries.

The threats to the global system are escaping human control.

The collapse of our global civilization is taking down with it all complex life on the planet.

Yet the roots of the problem are so deeply ingrained in the cultural, social and economic Systems, that it is most unlikely that more than cosmetic changes will be implemented.

In 1825 C.E. – some 200,000 years after the arrival of Homo sapiens – the world human

Population reached one billion. By 2000, the human population was 6 billions.

Until about 1700, the world human population never increased by more than

Approximately 0.1 percent a year. It is now increasing at 2.0 percent a year.

In 1800, worldwide, the consumption of water was 250 cubic kilometers.

In 2000, worldwide, the consumption of water was 5,200 cubic kilometers.

In 1800, worldwide, there were about 80,000 square kilometers of land under irrigation.

In 2000, worldwide, there were 2,750,000 square kilometers of land under irrigation.

John Lawes produced the first artificial fertilizer, a “super-phosphate,” in 1842.

In 2000, worldwide, 137 million tons of inorganic fertilizer were used.

In 1890, the world had 100 million pigs, 310 million cattle, and 360 million sheep.

In 1990, the world had 860 million pigs, 1,300 million cattle, and 1,210 million sheep.

In 1800, worldwide, coal production was 10 million tons.

In 2000, worldwide, coal production was 5,000 million tons.

In 1890, worldwide, oil production was 10 million tons.

In 2004, worldwide, oil production was 3,800 million tons.

In 1850, worldwide, iron and steel production was 12 million tons.

In 2000, worldwide, iron and steel production was 2,000 million tons.

In 1880, worldwide, copper production was 120,000 tons.

In 2000, worldwide, copper production was 11,600,000 tons.

Human Pollution:

For all practical purposes, the Earth is a closed system, the only exception being

The sunshine which enters the system and provides it energy. Since nothing else enters

The system, all of the Earth’s resources are finite. Since nothing gets out of the system,

Disposing of waste merely means changing its concentration and location on the planet.

Historically, the human response to pollution has invariably been slow and inadequate.

This is again the case today, as governments favor economic growth and industrial

Profitability over pollution control, and are unwilling or unable to implement the policies Necessary to make meaningful change. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) was Established in 1972. Humans have known since at least then the pollution threat to the planet.

From 1975 to 2000, humans caused the emission 150 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

By 2010, atmospheric CO₂ neared 400 ppm, auguring a global warming of 2 degrees Celsius.

In 2000, the size of the ozone “hole” over the Antarctic was 30 million square kilometers.

In 2000, humans caused the emission 75 million tons of sulfur dioxide (causing acid rain).

In 2000, one billion tons of organic chemicals, most of them toxic, were produced.

In 2000, more than a billion people had no access to safe drinking water.

In 2000, more than 1.2 billion people were breathing seriously unhealthy air.

In 2000, an overwhelming majority of the world’s population had no decent sanitation.

In 2006, the ocean surface averaged 18,000 floating scraps of plastic per square kilometer.

Life dying

Life cannot compete with machines.

The gross domestic product (GDP) does not speak to the sacredness of life.

Unborn children do not have a voice.

Species do not announce their own extinction.

A decapitated mountain is silent. The sound of a felled forest cannot be heard.

The 65 millionth seal killed during the 19^th century did not know about the trading of fur.

Melting glaciers erase their own history, and that of Earth.

The poison laced in our food is invisible.

Our environment is part of us – we kill it, we kill ourselves, piecemeal.

Around 2006, specie were becoming extinct at the rate of 3,000 a year The baseline rate is 2.

From 190 to 2000, 75 percent the world’s crop plants lost, for lack cultivation.

Non-reple ishable water used for 10 percent of t e globa harvest.

From 1984 to 20 4, world grain pro uction percent.

Fro 19 t 2005, by 7.7 percent.

1990 to 2000, cover decreased by

fish ”

third sl ms.

W ales . ¹

Conclusion

We think we are “advanced.”

We are actually the greatest criminals, the most barbaric form of life imaginable.

It is hard to say goodbye to the planet

While at the same time, fight for its survival,

Knowing that the chances of success are slim.

Yet to continue to fight with all their might

Is surely the only choice of humans with a conscience.

Note No. 1

The destruction of life is similar to the destruction of a sweater by moths.

For a long time, the sweater has small holes, and is still quite wearable.

The holes enlarge and eventually coalesce – and the sweater becomes an unwearable rag.

I should not allow myself the luxury of recapturing what was in that disintegrated stanza.

Life slaughtered does not tell its own story.

Yet, these bits of information reveal the enormity of our omnicide.

Around 2006, species were becoming extinct at the rate of 3,000 a year. The baseline rate is 2.

From 1900 to 2000, 75 percent of the world’s crop plants were lost, for lack of cultivation.

Non-replenishable water supplies are used for 10 percent of the global harvest.

From 1984 to 2004, per capita world grain production fell by 18 percent.

From 1996 to 2005, cropland area decreased by 7.7 percent.

From 1990 to 2000, forest cover decreased by 2.2 percent.

In 2000, one third of the fish consumed were “farmed.”

A third of the urban population live in slums.

Whales are unlikely to survive.

References

Hall, Francoise.

2009. “Killing life – while possessing the Freedom to choose” September 16 (113 pages, unpublished). Page 2.

2006, “The brief and disastrous Reign of Homo petrolatum.” September 30 (61 pages, unpublished). Page 7.

Ponting, Clive.

2007. A new green history of the world – the environment and the collapse of great civilizations. London, UK: Penguin.

(This is the source of almost all the data in the present poem).

1991. A green history of the world – the environment and the collapse of great civilizations. London, UK. Penguin.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2007. “Balancing Demand and environmental Degradation” October 14 (117 pages, unpublished). Pages 60, 92 and 96.

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