June 21, 2009

Global Warming – pre-Copenhagen⁽^a)

a new geological epoch

The “Anthropocene”: The earth’s climate is now changing so profoundly that the Holocene Geological Epoch (8,000 B.C.E.-Present), which witnessed the beginning of civilization (6,000 B.C.E.), is now giving way to a new Epoch. Dutch atmospheric chemists Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer propose to name this new epoch, the “Anthropocene” – because its climate will be determined by human actions (Crutzen and Stoermer 2000, quoted in Flavin and Engelman 2009, p. 5. Wikipedia “Paul Crutzen,” 2009, p. 1. Wikipedia “Anthropogenic,” 2009, p. 1).

The earth is heating increasingly rapidly, much faster than any predictions, and humanity, the causative factor of this geological change, may well opt not to stop the climate from slipping into what ice specialist Mark Serreze, referring to the Arctic ice melt, describes as a “death spiral” (Serreze 2008, quoted in Lean 2008, p. 2).

^(a) The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 15^th Conference of the Parties (COP), scheduled for November 30 - December 11, 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark.

fouling the nest – HISTORICAL highlights

Humanity is in the process of subverting the conditions for life on Earth. The race between global warming and the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is being (or has been) lost. The steps of our march to suicide are well-documented:

1824: French mathematician and physicist Jean Baptiste (Joseph) Fourier (1768-1830) discovers what is now called the greenhouse effect – gases in the atmosphere increase the surface temperature of the Earth.

1880: Measurements show that the average temperature of the air near the surface of the earth is 13.8 degrees Celsius.

1886: Irish physicist John Tyndall (1820-1893) explains atmospheric heat in terms of the capacity of various gases to absorb and transmit radiant heat (infrared radiation). The energy of the sun reaches the surface of the Earth primarily in the form of visible light, and returns back outward primarily in the form of infrared energy. Water vapor and other atmospheric constituents absorb this infrared energy, thereby preventing it from radiating back to outer space.

1896: Swedish physicist and chemist Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) predicts that a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (in his time about 295 parts per million) would raise the average global temperature by between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius. Present computer models developed by the United Nations, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that this is only a marginal over-estimate.

1962: American marine biologist and writer Rachel Carson (1907-1964) publishes Silent Spring, which helps launch the modern environmental movement.

1972: The Club of Rome, a group of scientists and industrialists, publishes its seminal Limits to growth.

1985: The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer establishes a framework for the negotiation of international regulations on ozone-depleting substances. It is signed by 20 nations, including those which produce most of the chlorofluorohydrocarbons (CFC’s).

1987: The Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer opens for signatures, and is eventually signed by 43 nations. The Protocol is an amendment (supplement) to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, outlining specific commitments to phase out the production of chlorofluorohydrocarbons (CFC’s).

1988: Two United Nations agencies, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), establish the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with the role of reviewing published literature relevant to the risk of human-induced climate change.

1989: The Montreal Protocol enters into force.

1990: Measurements show that the average temperature of the air near the surface of the earth is 14.3 degrees Celsius – 0.5 degrees more than in 1880.

The United Nations, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes its First Assessment Report.

1992: At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (“the Earth Summit”), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, countries adopt the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an agreement which establishes the outlines for a global policy to address the change in the climate by means of the:

“Stabilization and reconstruction of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

1994: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), enters into force.

1995: The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes its Second Assessment Report.

1996: The Council of Environment Ministers of the European Union states that it:

“believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level.”

1997: The Kyoto Protocol (amendment, supplement) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is adopted. Industrialized countries agree to reduce their collective greenhouse gases emissions by an average of 5.2 percent during the period 1990-2012.

Emission figures exclude international shipping and international aviation.

1998: The Kyoto Protocol opens for signatures. The United States signs the Protocol, but states its intention not to ratify it.

2001: The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes its Third Assessment Report.

2002: The (then) 15 members of the European Union, as well as Canada and Japan ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

2004: The Russian Federation ratifies the Kyoto Protocol.

2005: Measurements show that the average temperature of the air near the surface of the earth is 14.6 degrees Celsius – 0.8 degrees more than in 1880.

The Kyoto Protocol enters into force.

The European Union adopts its Emissions Trading System. The system excludes emissions produced by aviation.

2006: The European Union: In 2002, when the 15 countries which then comprised the European Union ratified the Kyoto Protocol, they committed, in the aggregate, to an 8 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2012. In 2006, the European Union estimates that an 8 percent reduction has taken place, 1990-2006.

The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate: Seven Asia-Pacific nations, Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States launch the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. The agreement allows member countries to set their own individual goal for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, and contains no enforcement mechanism.

2007: Australia: Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): In Bali, Indonesia, countries agree on an agenda for further negotiations, to take place before the expiration of the First Commitment Period (2005-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol. They set no binding goals.

The European Union:

* The European Union, now comprising 27 nations, adopts the goal of limiting the temperature rise of the planet to 2 degrees Celsius.

The G-8 divided: The adoption of the 2-degree goal by the European Union divides the members of the Group of Eight (G-8) (wealthy) countries. Four members, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, are also members of the European Union, and adopt the goal both through the Union and individually. The four members of the G-8 which are not members of the European Union, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States, do not subscribe to the goal. (They would adopt a weaker version of it at the 2009 G-8 annual meeting).

* In order to achieve the goal of limiting the temperature rise of the planet to 2 degrees, the European Union announces:

“a firm, independent commitment to achieve at least a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions by 2020 [compared to the level in 1990].

It also promises:

“a 30 percent reduction, if other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emissions reductions.”

3-4 additional percentage points: By 2006, the European Union had achieved the 8 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions to which it had committed under the Kyoto Protocol for the period 1990-2012. The Union, therefore, has 12 more percentage points to achieve, in order to attain its goal of a 20 percent reduction, 1990-2020. It plans to achieve about 8-9 of these percentage points through “off-set” projects which finance “clean development” outside its borders. Only about 3-4 percentage points are anticipated to be achieved through reductions within its borders.

(2007, continued)

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO): In May, Michael Raupach, at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency), publishing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that:

a. The rate of increase in carbon dioxide emissions took a sharp upturn in 2000. From a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year in the 1990, the rate became 3.3 percent per year from 2000 to 2004 (when the study ended).

b. The trend coincides with that anticipated in the highest emissions scenario of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007).

c. From 2000 to 2004, despite widespread publicity for greener sources of energy, no part of the world reduced the carbon intensity of its energy production (the amount of carbon it uses to produce energy).

d. Developing countries, which account for 41 percent of global emissions, account for 73 percent of the growth in emissions.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): James Hansen is Director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Sciences Division, Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y. Publishing in the July issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Hansen reports that:

a. Water from melted ice is lubricating the underside of glaciers, thus accelerating their movement to the sea.

b. The “albedo flip” (conversion of white, light-reflecting ice into dark, light-absorbing sea), is dramatically accelerating the loss of Arctic sea ice. The consequent increase in temperature in the Arctic provides a positive feedback loop which increases the melting of both sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet. It appears that at the present atmospheric CO₂concentration of 385 ppm, the “tipping point” for the melting of Arctic ice has been reached.

(2007, continued)

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Throughout the year, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes the Working Groups components of its Fourth Assessment Report. Consideration of a variety of plausible “scenarios,” leads to dire predictions about planetary temperature, sea level rise, and impacts on human populations.

Upon the release of the Synthesis Report, in November, IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri, admits that since the cut-off date for input, scientists have recorded:

“much stronger trends in climate change [such as the dramatic melting of polar ice during the summer of 2007] than before the publication of the Synthesis.”

2008: The European Parliament: The European Parliament approves the broad thrust of a series of climate change measures agreed upon by its member-governments. Officially, this commits 27 countries of the Union to a 20 percent reduction in their greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2020. (As detailed under “2007, The European Union,” the majority of the reduction still needed to meet this commitment, is anticipated to be in the form of off-sets, outside the borders of the Union).

The G-8 Countries: Meeting in Hokkaido, Japan, the Group of Eight (G-8) (wealthy) countries calls for a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions globally.

The International Energy Agency (IEA): The International Energy Agency, advisor to 28 industrialized countries, analyzes two scenarios – one limiting global warming to 2 degrees, and the other to 3 degrees Celsius. Reporting the results in its annual World energy outlook, the Agency states that the target of no more than 2 degrees, adopted by the European Union in 2007, may not be technically achievable:

“Even leaving aside any debate about the political feasibility, . . . it is uncertain whether the scale of the transformation envisaged is even technically achievable, as the scenario assumes broad development of technologies that have not yet been proven.”

“The scale of the challenge . . . is immense. The technology shift, if achievable, would certainly be unprecedented in scale and speed of deployment.”

2009: The Montreal Protocol: As of April 2009, with the exception of Timor-Leste, all of the United Nations member states have ratified the original Protocol. However, only 154 countries have signed the latest (1999, Beijing) amendment.

The Kyoto Protocol: As of February 2009, 183 countries and the European Union have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States is the only major exception. While in Turkey, in April 2009, President Barack Obama states:

“It doesn’t make sense for the United States to sign [the Kyoto Protocol] because[it] is about to end.”

The European Union: As of January 2009, the 15 countries which comprised the European Union at the time of its ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, in 2002, are on track to reach their Kyoto Protocol target of an 8 percent reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2012.

With the ratification of their agreement by the European Parliament, in 2008, the countries of the European Union are committed to a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2020. Most of the reductions needing to be made during the period 2008-2020, will be achieved by means of off-set programs outside the borders of the Union.

(2009, continued)

The Major Economies Forum: The United States, under President Barack Obama, convenes three meetings of 17 countries, representing both industrialized and “developing” nations, to take place in anticipation of the annual meeting, in July, of the G-8 countries in L’Aquila, Italy – where “developing” countries will be invited to participate in some of the discussions. The Forum is outside the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The meetings represent an amplification of the “talk shop” convened by President George W. Bush, in 2008.

Participating entities are the G-8 (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom which are also part of the European Union; and Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States which are not), the G-5 (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa), the “G-3” (Australia, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea), and Egypt (as a special case). The meetings are held in April (Washington, D.C.), May (Paris, France), and June (Mexico City, Mexico). “Developing” countries refuse to take on any binding commitment to reduce greenhouse gases, before industrialized countries set binding goals for themselves in the mid-term, such as 2020. The United States is the stumbling block on this latter point.

At the conclusion of the third meeting, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, Todd Stern, dismisses the necessity for the U.S. to have a more stringent goal by 2020 than that provided in the Waxman-Markey Bill:

“The 40 percent below [the] 1990 [level] is something which, in our judgment, is not necessary, and not feasible, given where we’re starting from, so it’s not in the cards.”

(2009, continued)

The G-8 Countries: At their annual meeting, in L’Aquila, Italy, July 8-9, 2009, the Group of Eight (G-8) nations:

1. Agree, in principle, to

“recognize the broad scientific view that the increase in world temperature ought not to exceed [2 degrees Celsius].”

The G-8 countries which are also members of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom) already agree (have agreed since 2007), to the goal of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States now “recognize the broad scientific view” that global temperatures should not rise more than 2 degrees Celsius.

2. Leave unspecified the emissions reductions they will undertake in order to meet their goal enunciated at their last annual meeting, in 2008, in Hokkaido, Japan – a 50 percent reduction in global greenhouse gases emissions, by 2050.

On the first day of the meeting, a proposal by Europe and the United States for an 80 percent reduction by 2050, is declared “unacceptable and unattainable” by the Russian Federation.

The gap is bridged at the cost of vagueness. The agreement:

a. Leaves unstated the date of its entry into force.

b. Specifies that it is non-binding.

c. Sets no deadline, such as 2020, as to when emissions should peak, stating only that this should be “as soon as possible.”

d. Sets no intermediate goal for reductions before 2050.

e. Does not specify a base year for reductions calculations, stating only that calculations should be made from “1990 or more recent years.”

(2009, continued)

G-5: Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa, representing the world’s developing nations with large and fast-growing economies, are invited to some of the sessions at the G-8 meeting in L’Aquila, Italy. (Egypt is also invited as a special case).

The G-5 agree with the statement of the G-8 to the effect that the global temperature rise should not exceed 2 degrees, but refuse to commit themselves to any specific reduction in their own emissions, by 2050, until industrial countries commit to a mid-term goals before 2020.

G-17: The addition of Australia, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea (“G-3”) for the last session of the G-8 meeting, in L’Aquila, Italy, enlarges the total number of countries participating to (G-8 + G-5 + Egypt + G-3) = 17.

The Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: On June 25, 2009, Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), addresses the Commission for Climate Change of the Spanish Parliament, in Madrid, and gives his assessment:

“Even assuming action by major developing nations, science tells us that industrialized countries need to reduce emissions in the order of 25 to 40 percent [below] 1990 levels by 2020, if we are to avoid the worst climate impacts.”

Fifteenth Conference of the Parties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: The 15^th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is scheduled for November 30 - December 11, 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark. The Conference will set new guidelines for emissions targets beyond 2012, when the First Commitment Period (2005-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol expires.

2012: The First Commitment Period (2005-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol expires.

2014: The Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due to be published.

2100: As of 2007, humanity was on course to raise the average temperature of the air near the surface of the earth to 19 degrees Celsius by 2100 – 5 degrees above that in 1880.

(Fouling the Nest – Historical Highlights, continued)

(Polya 2008, pp. 1-9. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 34, 53-54 and 314-317. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization 2007, pp. 1-2. Brahic 2007b, pp. 1-2. McKeown and Gardner 2009, pp 199 and 201. Engelman 2009, pp. 174 and 176-178. Hare 2009, pp. 18 and 29. Democracy Now! 2009, p. 4. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008b, p. 1. Flavin 2009, p. 1. Canadian Government, Environment Canada 1997, p. 2. Columbia Encyclopedia 2000).

[Particularly related to the G-8 Meeting, L’Aquila, Italy, July 8-9, 2009: American Public Media 2007, p. 1. Bartling 2008, p. 1. Blog.taragana.com 2009, pp. 1-2. Bloomberg.com 2009, pp. 1-3. Boston Globe 2009, p. 1. CBC 2007, pp. 1-3. Connecticut Post 2009, pp. 1-2. EarthTimes 2009, pp. 1-2. Environment 2009a, pp. 1-2. Environment 2009b, pp. 1-2. Environment News Service 2009, pp. 1-4. EurActiv.com 2007, p. 1. Europa 2008, p. 2. Fox News 2009, p. 1. Inter-Press Service (IPS) 2008, p. 1. MSNBC 2009, pp. 1-2. New York Times 2009, pp. 1-4. Reuters 2008, p. 1. Reuters 2009, p. 1. SourceWatch 2009, pp. 1-8. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2009b, p. 1. World Nuclear News 2009, pp. 1-2. Yahoo! News 2009, pp. 1-2].

[Wikipedia: Wikipedia undated “Ozone Depletion,” pp. 1 and 14. Wikipedia 2009 “Joseph Fourier,” pp. 1-2. Wikipedia undated “John Tyndall,” pp. 1 and 4. Wikipedia 2009 “35^th G-8 Summit,” pp. 1-6. Wikipedia 2009 “Club of Rome,” p. 2. Wikipedia 2009 “Earth Summit (1992),” p. 1. Wikipedia 2009 “Global Warming,” p. 4. Wikipedia 2009 “Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change,” pp. 1, 3, 11, 13 and 21. Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” pp. 1-31. Wikipedia 2009 “List of Kyoto Protocol Signatories” 2009, pp. 1-10. Wikipedia 2009 “Montreal Protocol,” pp. 1-6].

greenhouse gases

composition:

Naturally-occurring: The major naturally occurring greenhouse gases are water vapor (not including clouds), carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and ozone (O₃).

Anthropogenic: The major greenhouses gases engendered by human activity include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆).

Data from ice cores, available for the last 650,000 years, show consistently that present atmospheric levels of these gases, are considerably higher than levels at any time during this period. During this whole period, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, has remained between 180 and 300 parts per million. The present level is 390 parts per million by volume (ppmv, usually abbreviated to ppm) (Brahic 2007a, p. 1. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 3 and 31. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” pp. 4-5).

anthropogenic EMISSIONS, greenhouse gases:

Unit of Measurement: The standard unit of measurement for the global warming potential of greenhouse gases, is, in terms of mass, their equivalence to the warming potential of CO₂, considered as “1.” For instance, since methane has a warming potential 25 times that of CO₂, one metric ton of it emitted into the atmosphere, is equivalent to 25 metric tons of CO₂. It is 25 tons in terms of CO₂-equivalents (McKeown and Gardner 2009, p. 192).

Global Emissions: From practically zero emissions in 1850, humans were emitting, by 2005, 44 billion metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents of greenhouses gases into the atmosphere (World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data, p. 2).

Reported figures of total global emissions vary.

* The United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 33, quotes 48 billion tons in 2004.

* Scherr and Sthapit 2009, p. 32, quote 49 billion tons, in 2004.

Rate of Increase in global Emissions:

1990-2004: Using 48 billion tons CO₂-equivalents as the total for global emissions, in 2004, the United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 reports that this was an increase of 20 percent over the 1990 total of 40 billion tons CO₂-equivalents. This represents an increase of 8 billion tons in 14 years – an average of 1.43 percent per year (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 33-34).

1992-2007: The Global Carbon Project (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 29) reports a 38 percent increase in global greenhouse gases emissions, 1992-2007 – an average of 2.38 percent per year.

2000-2005: Using 44 billion tons CO₂-equivalents as the total for global emissions in 2005, the World Resources Institute reports that during an (by the Institute, undefined) 5.3-year period between 2000 and 2005, global emissions increased by 12.7 percent. (This means that total emissions were 39.04 billion tons CO₂-equivalents in 2000). An increase of 12.7 percent in 5.3 years averages to 2.40 percent per year (World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 data, p. 2).

Data Base by Country: As of 2009, there was no data base, by country, for the emission of greenhouse gases (Engelman 2009, p. 182).

Composition of the Emissions:

Carbon dioxide: In terms of contribution to global warming, carbon dioxide is the most important human-engendered greenhouse gas, accounting for 77 percent of the present global warming effect. Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 36 percent since pre-industrial times (1750). Its half-life is 100 years, but a better measure is its life time (residence time) in the atmosphere, which is 300 years for 35 percent of an original amount added to the atmosphere, and hundreds of thousands of years for 25 percent of the amount.

Methane: Methane contributes 14 percent of the present global warming. Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 150 percent since pre-industrial times (1750). Its half life is 7 years, and its life time (residence time) is 12 years (McKeown and Gardner 2009, pp. 189 and 192. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” p. 5).

Table 1 summarizes the principal human-generated greenhouse gases, with their global warming effect expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalence.

Table 1: Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases, 2004^(a)

Gas^(b) Increase Global Sources Contribution

(Atmospheric since pre- warming (Individual contribution to global

Life Time) Industrialization Potential^(c) to the Warming Process) Warming

(1750)

(Years) (Percent) (CO₂ equivalents) (percent) (percent)

______________________________________________________________________________

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) 36 1 Fossil fuel combustion (57 ) 77

300 + 25% Permanent⁽^d) Deforestation and other (20)^(e)

Methane (CH₄) 150 25 Ruminants 14

12 Energy generation

Paddy rice cultivation

Biomass combustion

Landfills

Sewage

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) 16 298 Industrial sources 8

114 Fertilizer Use

Land clearing

Hydrofluorocarbons “Signi- 124-14,800 Refrigerators |

Longest: 269^(f) ficant” Air conditioners |

Aerosols |

Perfluorocarbons “Signi- 5,700-12,200^(e) Aluminum production | 1

10,000-50,000^(g)ficant” Semi-conductor manufacture |

Sulfur hexa- |

fluoride (SF₆) “Signi- 22,800 Electrical insulation |

3,200 ficant” Magnesium smelting |

Semi-conductor manufacture |

_______________________________

See notes next page.

Notes to Table 1:

^(a) McKeown and Gardner 2009, pp. 189 and 192. Hare 2009, pp. 23-24. Rohde 2009, p. 1. Hobbs 2000, pp. 14-20. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 36. Wikipedia 2009 “Global Warming,” p. 5. Curtis undated, p. 1. McDonald 2007, p. 2-2. Fogg, Sangster and Lee 2003, pp. 8 and 10. United States Government, Environmental Protection Agency 2009b, pp. 1-3. Wikipedia 2009 “Methane,” p. 1. Wikipedia 2009 “Greenhouse Gas,” pp. 8, 11 and 16-17.

The atmospheric life time of methane and nitrous oxide are from the United Nations, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report (2007), reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Greenhouse Gases.” .

^(b) These four gases and two groups of gases are included in the Kyoto Protocol which came into force in 2005.

^(c) Averaged over a 100-year period.

^(d) The half-life of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere is 100 years – half is eliminated in 100 years. From that point on, however, the elimination curve slows down dramatically. At 300 years, with 35 percent of the original amount still in the atmosphere, a new equilibrium is reached, and there is very little elimination after that. At 1,000 years, a quarter (25 percent) of the original amount is still in the atmosphere, and at 10,000 years, one-eighth (13 percent) is still present. Full geological elimination requires hundreds of thousands of years. Thus, for practical purposes, the life time (residence time) of CO₂ added to the atmosphere is 300 years for 65 percent of an initial amount added to the atmosphere, but hundreds of thousands of years for 25 percent of the amount. A quarter of any emission essentially will have a cumulative and permanent presence.

^(e) Changes in land use which emit methane and nitrous oxide, are responsible for an additional 11 percent. As a whole, changes in land use account for 31 percent of the total CO₂-equivalent emissions (20 percent from CO₂and 11 percent from methane and nitrous oxide).

These figures are obtained by using the calculation methodology of the World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2000 Data, and Scherr and Sthapit 2009, p. 32. The World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data, uses a different methodology, resulting in land use changes totaling 12 (not 20) percent of emissions [See Table 2 (Sources of Greenhouse Gases, World, 2005), Note ^(e)].

^(f) The hydrofluorocarbon with the longest time in the atmosphere is fluoroethane (CHF₃) which has a life time of 269 years.

^(g)The most important perfluorocarbons are:

* Hexafluoroethane (C₆F₆), with a life time in the atmosphere of 10,000 years and a global warming potential of 11,900.

* Tetrafluoromethane (CF₄), with a life time in the atmosphere of 50,000 years and a global warming potential of 5,700.

Sources of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse Gases, by Sector of the Economy: Table 2 summarizes the sources of the 44 billion metric tons CO₂-equivalents of gases emitted by humans, in 2005.

Table 2: Sources of Greenhouse Gases, World, 2005^(a)

Sector/Activity^(b) Total for Activity Total for Sector

(Specific Use, percent World Total (percent) (percent)

emissions engendered by it)

______________________________________________________________________________

Energy

Electricity and Heat

(Buildings: Residential 10%, Commercial 6%) 25

Industry

(Oil/Gas Extraction, refining & processing 6%

Cement 5%, Chemicals 4%, Iron & Steel 4%) 15

Transportation

(Road 11%, Air 2%, Rail, Ship & Other Transport 3%) 14

Other Combustion of Fuel 9

Fugitive Emissions 4

Total 67

Agriculture

Soils used for Agriculture 5

Livestock and Manure 5

Rice Cultivation 2

Total 14

Land Use Changes (Tropics only)

Deforestation 11

Harvest/Management 1

Afforestation^(c) - 0.4^(d)

Total 12^(e)

Industrial Processes

Total 4

Waste

Landfills, Waste-water, Other Waste 3

Total 3

Grand Total - 100

_____________________________________

See notes next page.

Notes for Table 2:

^(a) World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data. McKeown and Gardner 2009, p. 190. Scherr and Sthapit 2009, pp. 31-32. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 33 and 40. Wikipedia 2009 “Greenhouse Gas,” p. 6. United States Government, Environmental Protection Agency 2009a, p. 1.

The year 2005 is the most recent year for which comprehensive emissions data are available for both all major sectors and all major greenhouse gases.

Table 1 (Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases, 2004), summarizes the composition of these emissions: carbon dioxide (CO₂), 77 percent; methane (CH₄), 14 percent; nitrous oxide (N₂O), 8 percent; and hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), 1 percent.

^(b)Of the 2005 greenhouse gases total of 44.2 billion tons CO2-equivalents, fossil fuel combustion accounted for 27.7 billion tons (57 percent).

^(c) Afforestation is the planting of new forests on lands which historically have not been covered by forests.

^(d) A negative number represents the absorption (removal) of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

^(e) For its World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data, the World Resources Institute revised its methodology for the calculation of deforestation. In its earlier, 2000 Data Chart, deforestation was calculated as contributing 18 percent of the global greenhouse gases emissions (7.5 out of a total of 41.8 billion tons).

Scherr and Sthapit 2009, pp. 31-32, using 2004 data, quote a similar figure – deforestation contributing 17 percent of global greenhouse gases emissions (8.5 out of a total of 49 billion tons).

The World Resources Institute cautions that the discrepancy is due to its new methodology, not to any actual decrease in deforestation rates.

Aerosols

Aerosols consist of solid or liquid particles, typically from 0.01 to 10 micrometers in size, which are suspended in the air. Aerosols generated by human activities include principally sulfate compounds, organic carbon, black carbon, nitrates and dust. Taken together, these aerosols have a net cooling effect on the planet – even though the suspended particles of one of them, black carbon (soot), absorb heat and contribute to warming.

Aerosols have life-times in the atmosphere of days or weeks. Their cooling effect is such that, were all emissions of both CO₂ and aerosols to stop suddenly, there would be a sharp warming spike before the temperature of the earth would decrease as a consequence of the zero CO₂emissions. On a regional basis, atmospheric brown clouds may mask up to 50 percent of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.

When the cooling effect of aerosols in taken into account, the net forcing of the temperature is about the same as the concentration of carbon dioxide (379 for the year 2005) (Hare 2009, pp. 22-23. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” 2009, pp. 6-7. United States Government, Environmental Protection Agency 2009a, p. 1).

carbon dioxide

natural cycle: Table 3 summarizes how human emissions of (26+6) = 32 billion tons of CO₂ yearly, equaling (32/220+220+260)100 = 5 percent of the total natural terrestrial emissions and oceanic release, unbalances the natural cycle of the gas.

Table 3: Human Alteration of the Earth’s Carbon Cycle, 2004^(a)

Carbon dioxide Natural Anthropogenic Changes

(billion tons, (billion tons,

per year) 2004)

__________________________________________________________________

Terrestrial

Emissions

Respiration by Vegetation^(b) + 220 …

Consumption of Vegetation^(b)(c) + 220 …

Industrial Emissions … + 26

Land use Changes … + 6

Absorption

Photosynthesis^(d) - 440 …

Increased Uptake by Plants … - 10

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Oceanic

Release

Pre-industrialization^(e) + 260

In 2004 … + 70

Absorption

Pre-industrialization - 260

In 2004 … - 80

_________________________________________________________________

Total

Emission/ Release 0 + 102

Absorption 0 - 90

Net

Emissions/ Release … ~ + 15^(f)

______________________________

See notes next page.

Notes to Table 3:

^(a) United Nations, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, quoted in Brahic 2007a, p. 1. Brahic 2007a, pp. 1-2. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a, p. 2.

^(b)Volcanoes contribute 0.3 billion tons to these terrestrial emissions of 440 billion tons (0.07 percent).

^(c)The consumption of terrestrial vegetation by animals and microbes (the latter described by us as rotting).

^(d) Weathering contributes 0.7 billion tons to this absorption of 440 billion tons (0.16 percent).

^(e) The absorption and release of CO₂ by the ocean depends on the temperature and rate of photosynthesis by phytoplankton.

^(f) In 2004, human-engendered additions to the natural cycle of carbon dioxide totaled (26+6) = 32 billion tons. Increased uptake by terrestrial plants and increased absorption by the oceans were each 10 billion tons, totaling 20 billion tons. The change in the earth’s natural CO₂ cycle, therefore, was (32-20) = 12 billion tons – or approximately +15 billion tons per year.

aNTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS, Carbon dioxide:

Total Emissions:

1990: In 1990, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (excluding changes in land use), totaled 22.7 billion tons. During the 1990’s, these emissions were increasing at 1.1 percent per year.

2004: In 2004, CO₂ emissions totaled 29.0 billion tons, and were increasing at 3.0 percent per year.

2007: In 2007, CO₂ emissions totaled 31 billion tons and, from 2000 to 2007, were increasing at 3.5 percent per year.

Between 1990 and 2007, therefore, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, increased by 37 percent, and the rate at which they increased by 250 percent (Flavin and Engelman 2009, p. 7. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 313. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization 2007, p. 1. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a, p. 2).

Per Capita Emissions: In 2007, world population was 6.6 billion. On a per capita basis, therefore, emissions were 4.7 tons per person per year.

Carbon Inequality: The world average per capita emissions of CO₂, hides the extreme inequality in the contribution of each country (and even more, of each citizen), to the global warming crisis.

In 2004, the United States emitted 21 percent of the world total. With a population of 293.7 million, the country emitted 6.0 billion tons of carbon dioxide – that is, 20.6 tons per person per year.

(United States Government, Bureau of the Census, 2006b, p. 1. Wang and Watson 2009, p. 89. Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004,” p. 1. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 32 and 69. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a, p. 2).

International Transport:

International Shipping: International shipping is a major contributor to global warming, in 2008, responsible for the emission of 0.9 billion tons of CO₂ – in the same range as Germany (0.8 billion tons) and Japan (1.3 billion tons) in 2004.

During the 19-year period 1990-2009, international shipping CO₂ emissions increased by 85 percent – 4.5 percent annually.

To date, international shipping is excluded from all international targets, including those of the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Emissions Trading System of the European Union (2005).

Aviation: A return trip London-New York produces 3.2 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents – 1.2 tons of actual CO₂, and almost twice as much (2 tons CO₂-equivalents) due to the increased warming effect of water vapor and gases other than CO₂ when released at altitudes at which most large airplanes fly – the upper troposphere (10-13 kilometers above the surface of the earth).

In 2008, CO₂ emissions from international aviation totaled 0.7 billion tons – in the same range as Canada (0.6 billion tons) and Germany (0.8 billion tons) in 2004.

During the 19-year period 1990-2009, international aviation CO₂ emissions increased by 45 percent – 2.4 percent per year. Because of its additional climate impact, international aviation is responsible for 5 percent of the present warming of the planet.

To date, aviation is excluded from all international targets, including the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Emissions Trading System of the European Union (2005). In 2008, the European Parliament voted to include airlines in its Emissions Trading System, as of 2012.

(Monbiot 2007, pp. 174-175 and 177, summarized in Hall 2007a, pp. 17-18. BBC News 2005, p. 2, summarized in Hall 2007a, pp. 17-18. Goodall 2007, pp. 1-3. TransportEnvironment.org 2009, pp. 1-2. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69. Wikipedia 2009, “List of Countries by Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004” pp. 2-3. Unnikrishnan and Wall 2009, p. 1).

ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE:

Half-life: The half-life of a chemical is defined as the time required for its concentration to decrease to half of its initial value. CO₂ added to the atmosphere has a half-life of 100 years. Of any amount emitted today, only half will remain after 100 years. After that, however, the elimination curve flattens dramatically, and the better measure to express this fact is the life time (residence time) of CO₂.

Life Time: The life time (residence time) of a chemical in the atmosphere is the average time that a molecule of it remains in the atmosphere. It is a measure of the time required to restore equilibrium in the atmosphere after an increase in the concentration of the chemical.

Mathematically, life time is expressed as the initial amount of the chemical added to the atmosphere divided by its efflux (removal rate + destruction rate) once in the atmosphere. This can be expressed as:

Life time = m/f

where m is the original amount of the chemical, and

f is its efflux

After 300 years, 35 percent of any CO₂ is still in the atmosphere. However, at about that time, a new equilibrium is reached and the elimination curve becomes almost flat. The full response by the earth’s carbon cycle to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is extremely long. One-quarter (25 percent) of the initial amount is still present after 1,000 years, and one-eighth (13 percent) still present after 10,000 years. Full geological elimination requires hundreds of thousands of years.

Thus, of any amount of CO₂added to the atmosphere, two-thirds (65 percent) will have a life time of 300 years, but a quarter (25 percent), will, for all practical purposes, have a cumulative and permanent presence.

Carbon Cycle Response to ANTHROPOGENIC Carbon dioxide: Table 4 summarizes the asymptotic curve at which additional carbon is eliminated from the atmosphere.

Table 4: Carbon Cycle Response

to increased atmospheric Carbon dioxide^(a)

Time Amount remaining

(years) in the Atmosphere

0 1,000

100 500

300 350^(b)

1,000 250

10,000 125

Several 100,000’s Full geological elimination

_____________________________

^(a) Hare 2009, pp. 23-24. Rohde 2009, p. 1. Hobbs 2000, pp. 14-20. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 36. Wikipedia 2009 “Greenhouse Gas,” pp. 15-17.

^(b) Equilibrium is reached at this level. From then on, elimination slows down considerably.

The present Increase of Carbon dioxide in the Atmosphere: Table 5 summarizes the rapidly increasing concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere, and the accelerating rate at which it is increasing. From 2005 to 2009, the increase was of (390-379)/ 5 = 2.2 parts per million per volume (ppmv, usually abbreviated to ppm) per year.

Table 5: Atmospheric Carbon dioxide, 1750-2009^(a)

Year Atmospheric Concentration^(b) Rate of Increase

[parts per million per [parts per million per

volume (ppmv)] volume (ppmv) per year]

CO₂ CO₂-equivalents CO₂

1750 (pre-industrial) 278 - -

1832 284 - 0.08

1850 285 - 0.06

1950 310 - 0.25

1965 320 - 0.67

1974 330 - 1.12

1980 340 - 1.67

1987 350 - 1.43

1995 360 - 1.25

2000 370 - 2.00

2002 374 - 2.00

2003 376 - 2.00

2005 379 455^(c) 1.50

2006 380 - 1.00

2007 384 460^(c) 4.00

2008 389 - 5.00

2009 (as of May) 390 - 1.00

____________________________

^(a) McKeown and Gardner 2009, p. 194. Hare 2009, pp. 14 and 22-23. CO₂Now, pp. 2-3. McKibben 2009. Climate Institute undated, p. 1. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 32-33. Wikipedia 2009 “Carbon dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere,” p. 1. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a, pp. 2 and 4. Collins 2009, p. 3. Polya 2008, p. 5.

^(b) The concentrations are taken from various sources which do not necessarily give exactly comparable information. Some concentrations were measured from graphs. The figures given here can be considered sufficiently good approximations to deduce the over-riding conclusion that the rate at which the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ is increasing, is dramatic.

^(c) Includes only long-lived greenhouses gases. Excludes aerosols.

Global Temperature

The present Rise in global Temperature: Table 6 summarizes the rise in the average temperature of the earth’s near-surface air since pre-industrial time (1880).

Table 6: Global Temperature, 1880-2005^(a)

Year Average global Temperature Per Year Rise

during prior Interval

(Degrees Celsius) (Degrees Celsius)

1880 13.8 -

1906 13.8 0.000

1932 13.8 0.002

1958 13.8 0.002

1984 14.1 0.012

2005 14.6 0.024

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary

Time Interval Rise during specified Interval

(Degrees Celsius)

1880-1990 0.50 in 90 years

1990-2007 0.25 in 17 years

1880-2007 0.74 Pre-industrial time - Present

1880- 2100 (predicted) 4-6 in 95 years⁽^b)

Beyond 2100 (predicted) Continued warming^(c)

___________________________

^(a) McKeown and Gardner 2009, p. 194. Hare 2009, pp. 13-14. Lovejoy 2009, p. 67. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” 2009, pp. 1, 4 and 10. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 6-7 and 34. Polya 2008, p. 5.

^(b) The Fourth Report of the UN Inter-governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) predicted a warming of 1.6-6.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period. Since, from 2000 to 2009, emissions, warming and sea level rise have all been at the upper end of the projected ranges, it is prudent to assume that, in the absence of major emission reductions, the likely warming during the present century will be toward the mid- or upper end of this projected range.

^(c) Oceanic thermal inertia and the long atmospheric life time of CO₂, would produce a further warming of about 0.5 degrees Celsius, were all emissions to stop and greenhouse gases stabilized at their levels during the year 2,000.

Risk of a two-degree global Temperature Rise: Table 7 summarizes the risk of a global temperature rise exceeding 2 degrees above the 1880 (pre-industrial) level of 13.8 degrees Celsius.

Table 7: Risk of a two-degree Temperature Rise at various

Greenhouse Gases Concentrations^(a)

Stabilized Greenhouse Probability of exceeding a

Gases Concentrations 2-degree Rise above the

pre-industrial Temperature

(ppm CO₂-equivalents) (percent)

Mid-range (Range)

350 17 ( 0- 33)

400 34 ( 9- 59)

450 53 (27- 79)

500 72 (49- 95)

550 85 (70- 99)

600 91 (82- 99)

650 94 (88-100)

700 96 (92-100)

750 98 (95-100)

_________________________________________

^(a) United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 46.

The Table shows that in order to have about a 50 percent chance of limiting a temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, the concentration of greenhouse gases needs to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO₂-equivalents. This level has already been surpassed. In 2005, the level was 455 CO₂-equivalents, and in 2007, it was 460 CO₂-equivalents [See Table 5 (Atmospheric Carbon dioxide, 1750-2009)].

A concentration of greenhouse gases stabilized at 550 ppm gives a 85 percent chance of breaching the 2-degree threshold.

In its Overview, the United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 observes:

“In their personal lives, few people would knowingly undertake activities with a serious injury risk of this order of magnitude” (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 7).

The possible Influence of Aerosols: The above calculations exclude the influence of aerosols, which are emitted concurrently with greenhouse gases, and which have a net cooling effect on the planet. Their life times in the atmosphere are measured in days or weeks.

If aerosols continue to be emitted together with long-lived greenhouses at about the present rate, their cooling effect would bring the net forcing of global temperature at about the level of the carbon dioxide concentration.

At present (2009), the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is 390 ppm, giving about a 34 percent chance of exceeding a rise in temperature of 2 degrees above the pre-industrial level. The range of uncertainty does not preclude the possibility of a 59 chance that the temperature rise will exceed 2 degrees.

We have now entered an era in which the chances of exceeding a 2-degree temperature rise above the pre-industrial level, ranges from 34 to 53 percent, and does not preclude an almost 80 percent chance of exceeding a 2-degree rise.

(Hare 2009, pp. 22 and 24. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” pp. 6-7).

Risk of a three-degree global Temperature rise:

* A concentration of greenhouse gases stabilized at 550 ppm gives a probability of 33 percent of exceeding a three-degree rise in temperature.

* A concentration of greenhouse gases stabilized at 650 ppm gives a probability of 78 (60-95) percent of exceeding a three degree rise in temperature.

(Hare 2009, pp. 22 and 24. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” pp. 6-7).

Risk of a five-degree global Temperature rise:

* A concentration of greenhouse gases stabilized at 883 ppm, gives a 50 percent chance of exceeding a five-degree rise in temperature.

(Hare 2009, pp. 22 and 24. Wikipedia “Global Warming,” pp. 6-7).

the business-as-usual scenarios

projected rises in global temperature:

2003: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT): In 2003, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Boston, MA, project an increase in global temperature of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.

[The published figure of 2.4 degrees refers to warming compared to 1990 as the baseline. By then, global temperature had already risen 0.5 degree above its pre-industrial (1880) level] (Chandler 2009, p. 1. Climate Progress 2009, p. 1).

2007: The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): The United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Report (2007), predicts a rise of 2.3 (1.6-3.4) to 4.5 (2.9-6.9) degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1880) temperature by 2080 (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 34-35).

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO): In 2007, Australian researcher Michael Raupach finds that both global emissions of CO₂ (29 billion tons, in 2004), and the rate at which these emissions are increasing (3.3 percent per year during 2000-2004), are similar to those predicted in the highest scenario of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its 2007 Report. This scenario, “A1F1,” assumes rapid population growth, rapid economic growth, and continued reliance on fossil fuels. Under these conditions, the predicted global temperature rise is 4.5 (2.9-6.9) degrees above the pre-industrial (1880) level (Brahic 2007b, p. 1. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 34-35. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization 2007, p. 1).

2008: The International Energy Agency: In the 2008 edition of its annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France, writes,

“Without a change in policy, the world is on a path for a rise in global temperature of up to 6.0 degrees Celsius [above pre-industrial levels, by 2100]” (Climate Progress 2008, p. 1. Murphy 2008, pp. 1-2).

The Hadley Center: In 2008, Vicky Pope, Director of Climate Change Advice, at the Ministry of Defense, Hadley Center, Met Office, Exeter, UK, writes in the UK Times that, if no action is taken to check the increase in greenhouse gases emissions, global temperatures will most likely rise by 5.5 degrees, and could rise as high as 7.0 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, by 2100.

[The published figures of 5.0 degrees and as high as 6.5 degrees, refer to warming compared to 1990 as a baseline. By then, global temperature had already risen 0.5 degrees above its pre-industrial (1880) level] (Climate Progress 2008, pp. 1 and 4. West Coast Climate Equity Association 2008, pp. 1 and 3).

2009: W. L. Hare: In 2009, W. L. Hare, specialist in earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, notes:

“Given that emissions, warming, and sea level rise during the current decade have all been at the upper end of projected ranges, it would be prudent to assume that, in the absence of major emission reductions, the likely warming will be toward the mid- or upper end of the IPCC [2007] projected range [– such as 4-6 degrees Celsius, if not more above the pre-industrial level (1880) by 2100]” (Hare 2009, pp. 13-14).

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology: In 2009, Andrei Sokolov and co-workers, at MIT, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, predict a doubling of their 2003 warming projection for our current emissions path. By 2095, the rise is now projected to be 5.7 (4.0-7.9) degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1861) temperature.

[The published figures of 5.2 (3.5-7.4) degrees refer to warming compared to 1990 as a baseline. By then, the global temperature had already risen 0.5 degree above its pre-industrial (1880) level].

The median projection for the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is 866 ppm by 2095. The probability that warming will be less than 3 degrees is one percent. The probability that it will be more than 7 degrees is nine percent.

Factors which are thought to have caused this doubling in the projected temperature rise, compared to the 2003 model, include:

1. Improved economic modeling.

2. New economic data which show a lesser probability of low emissions.

3. Accounting for the masking of warming produced by the cooling effect of volcano eruptions during the 20^th century.

4. Accounting for emissions of soot (which add to warming).

5. Deep ocean temperature rises which imply a lower capacity for the oceans to absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere.

The authors caution that the model may understate the odds, as it does not fully incorporate possible positive feedbacks, such as, for example, a large-scale melting of permafrost in Arctic regions, with the consequent release of large amounts of methane (Chandler 2009, pp. 1-2. Climate Progress 2009, pp. 1-3. Goodbun 2009, pp. 1-3).

retracing our warming steps

No “safe” Temperature Increase: There is no unambiguously “safe” level for a global temperature rise. Any increase in temperature carries with it the risk of significant, dangerous ecological changes. A warming of one degree Celsius, for instance, carries with it the risk of a significant loss of ice from the ice sheets, and large damages to vulnerable ecosystems.

From pre-industrial time until 2007, global temperature had risen 0.74 degrees. A total warming below one degree, therefore, must achieve stabilization at no more than 0.26 degree above the 2007 temperature.

removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere: All of the scenarios which aim to curb the predicted global temperature rise of business-as-usual conditions, rely on removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere. This is because of the extremely slow response of the earth’s carbon cycle to added CO₂ in the atmosphere. Of any CO₂ added to the atmosphere, 65 percent will be absorbed in 300 years, but 25 percent will essentially stay in the atmosphere forever. Without human removal of the gas, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ will not decrease sufficiently to bring down the earth’s temperature in time to stave off ecological catastrophe.

There are three ways that this removal can be accomplished:

1. Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECS): Biomass consists of biological materials, both living and dead, from either above or below ground. It includes such materials as trees, crops, grasses, tree litter, roots, animals and animal waste. It may also include plants grown in plantations for biofuel.

As biomass is burned in biomass-fired power plants, the CO₂ can be captured, and stored underground in geological reservoirs – which would need to be watched and managed for millennia. The consequences of such a strategy have not been evaluated either from an environmental or sustainability point of view, and much less from an ethical point of view.

2. Capture of Carbon dioxide from the Air: The process of removing CO₂ from the air and storing it underground has been proposed, with the suggestion that it is technologically feasible.

3. Reduction in Deforestation: While reducing emissions from deforestation is important, the scale of the potential uptake of carbon by forests and agricultural soils, is unlikely to be sufficient to reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ significantly.

Even for scenarios aiming at a below 1.5 degree rise, computer models show that the net uptake of carbon by vegetation until 2100, would not increase the carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems sufficiently to outweigh the need for a removal of CO₂by the energy sector.

Scenarios aiming for < 1 Degree: As of 2009, no scenario had been published which aimed at bringing global warming to below one degree above pre-industrial temperature.

Scenarios aiming for < 1.5 Degree:

1. <1.5 Degrees by 2200: To date, the most stringent scenarios published aim for a warming of below 1.5 degrees by 2200. This would be achieved by the removal of a determined amount of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the year 2100, and maintenance of an equal yearly removal for at least the next 100 years.

2. <1.5 Degrees, but at a later Time: Nearly all of even the less stringent scenarios require the removal of CO₂from the atmosphere by 2075. Without this removal, the long life time of CO₂ makes it impossible to decrease its atmospheric concentration.

Scenarios aiming for <2 Degrees:

1. Greenhouse Gases at 400 ppm CO₂-eq.: All of the scenarios which aim at limiting the temperature rise to below 2 degrees by stabilizing greenhouse gases concentrations at 400 ppm CO₂-equivalents, are at the limit of what models indicate is presently technologically feasible. (With stabilization at 400 ppm, the risk of overshooting the 2-degree target is still around 34 percent, with an uncertainty range of 9-59 percent).

Recent scenarios propose a stabilization at 400 ppm CO₂-equivalents by means of:

a. A 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2050 – with carbon dioxide being reduced by 65 percent. Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions must approach zero between 2050 and 2100.

b. The removal of 4-30 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere yearly by 2100.

c. The use of biomass energy with carbon storage (BECS).

d. Rapid reductions in deforestation.

2. Aiming for <2 Degrees, but less stringently: Even the scenarios which aim for a temperature rise of below 2 degrees less stringently, require fossil fuel CO₂ emissions to approach zero between 2050 and 2100, and a rapid reduction in deforestation.

3. The lowest scenario of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): The lowest scenario of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report (2007), aims for stabilization of greenhouse gases at 450 ppm CO₂-eq. At this level, the probability of exceeding a 2-degree rise above the earth’s pre-industrial temperature is 53 percent, with an uncertainty range of 27-79 percent.

The projected emissions reduction rely on the following:

By 2020:

Industrialized Countries: Industrialized countries should have emission levels, as represented by emission allowances, 33 (25-40) percent below 1990 levels. (Emissions allowances are not the same as the physical reduction of emissions levels in the countries in question).

“Developing” Countries:

Wealthier: Latin America, the Middle East and East Asia (which includes China) should have a “substantial” reduction in the growth of emissions.

Poorer: South Asia (which includes India) and Africa, would have no requirement.

By 2050:

Industrialized Countries: Industrialized countries should have emissions levels, as represented by emission allowances, 88 (80-95) percent below 1990 levels. (Emissions allowances are not the same as the physical reduction of emissions levels in the countries in question).

“Developing” Countries: All countries should have a substantial reduction in the growth of emissions.

scenario aiming for <2 Degrees with a reduction to <1 Degree: This scenario was modeled using data from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000).

The scenario aims at a global temperature peaking at a below 2-degree rise, and then declining rapidly to a below 1-degree rise. These specifications necessitate a very rapid reduction of greenhouse gases emissions between now and 2050. The reduction must be much more rapid than that allowed by models which aim only for a peak at below 2 degrees – and these models are already at the limit of what is presently technological feasible.

A very rapid Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Emissions before 2050: The most plausible way of achieving the necessary very rapid reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, is to aim for a very rapid reduction in fossil fuel emissions – such as a zero level by 2050. This is a very early date, fully 25 years earlier than that anticipated by most scenarios which aim for a <1.5 degree temperature rise.

Zero Fossil Fuel CO₂Emissions by 2050: Compared to the <1.5 degree scenarios, the achievement of zero CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels by 2050 would require:

Before 2050:

1. An earlier and more massive global deployment of renewable energy systems.

2. Accelerated energy efficiency measures.

3. A limit to the life time of coal power plants.

4. After 2025, the deployment of as-yet-unproven carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

(The high energy requirement and the CO₂ emissions of this technology preclude it from being used to achieve a zero level of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels).

5. Well before 2040, a halt in deforestation.

6. Large-scale efforts to store carbon in soils through changes in agriculture and the re-growing of forests.

7. The reduction of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and industry at a rate similar to the <1.5 degree models.

8. For ozone-depleting substances, endorsement of the Montreal Protocol (1987) phase-out schedule. The Treaty entered into force in 1989.

9. For hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride, endorsement of the Kyoto Protocol (1997) regulations. The Treaty entered into force in 2005.

After 2050:

The extraction from the atmosphere and permanent storage of 9 billion tons of CO₂ per year for 200 years – until 2250. (This would remove a total of 1,800 billion tons of CO₂ – an amount equal to about (1,800 / 32) = 56 years of the world’s 2004 emissions of 32 billion tons). The extraction would bring the concentration of greenhouse gases down to 300 ppm CO₂-eq. – just above the pre-industrial (1850) level of 285 ppm CO₂.

This extraction of CO₂from the atmosphere would have to be done largely through the use of technology. The absorption and storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere is limited and declining. In the present scenario, it is assumed to be 0.5 billion tons a year from 2050 to 2100, and then decline to zero by 2200.

Result:

Greenhouse Gases: If these conditions are met, the emissions of the greenhouse gases specified in the Kyoto Protocol would:

Before 2020: Reach a peak and then decline.

By 2050: Decline to 85 percent below their 1990 level.

The atmospheric concentration of these greenhouse gases would:

By 2250: Be below their 2004 level of 378 ppm CO2-eq.

By 2400: Be close to the pre-industrial level of 278 CO₂.

Global Temperature: The global temperature would:

Around 2050: Peak to below a 2-degree rise, and then decline slowly.

By 2275, be at its 2004 level of 14.6 degrees [that is, 0.74 degrees above its pre-industrial (1880) level of 13.8].

By 2400, be around its 1990 level of 14.3 degrees [that is, 0.5 degrees above its pre-industrial (1880) level of 13.8].

Assessment of this <2 then <1 Scenario:

What went in must come out: The scenario shows that in order to return to below one degree above pre-industrial temperature as soon as possible, the total amount of carbon which needs to be captured and stored, is in the same order of magnitude as the amount emitted since 1850.

Possibly an overwhelming Task: Limiting the increase in global warming to below 2 degrees is a very difficult task. The momentum is toward an increase of 4-6 degrees before 2100. However, it seems at least to be technically possible.

Lowering the increase from 2 degrees to 1 degree as rapidly as possible requires massive actions sustained for 400 years, and is at the outer edge of what is technically feasible (Hare 2009, pp. 18-19 and 24-29. Wikipedia 2009 “Montreal Protocol,” pp. 1-2. Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 1).

non-linearity in the climate system

Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system:

“Tipping Point”: The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system.

“Tipping Element”: In the Earth’s climate system, a “tipping element” refers to a large-scale component of the system (a sub-system) which is subject (vulnerable) to a tipping point.

The “tipping point” of an element in the climate system is that critical threshold at which it undergoes a non-linear, radical transition into a qualitatively different state, with consequences which are major, and, for all practical purposes, irreversible. The rate of transition is determined by the climate system itself and not the forcing agent which causes it. The transition, therefore, may be faster or slower than the cause.

If a level of warming in the climate system is such that an element undergoes tipping, the change would be unlikely to be reversed by a subsequent cooling. It is likely that the process would continue until the establishment of a new climate equilibrium.

A brief HISTORY of TIPPING in the climate: The history of the Earth shows that the tipping of one or more climate element, has produced changes in the whole planetary climate system. Table 8 summarizes some of the tippings which have occurred in the geological past.

Table 8: Tipping Events in the History of the Earth

Years ago Tipping Event

2,500,000,000-10,000 “Dansgaard-Oeschger Events”: “Dansgaard-Oeschger Events” refer to rapid warming events during the Pleistocene Epoch (2.5 million - 10,000 years ago). These periods of warming, some of more than 10 degrees in Greenland, were engendered by a coupled transition of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and Arctic sea ice. The new climate state, with less ice, was quasi-stable.

2,400,000,000 The “Great Oxidation”: The “Great Oxidation” refers to the first significant rise of oxygen in the Earth’s atmosphere. The proportion of oxygen in the atmosphere rose by a factor of 1,000 (from 0.0002 to 0.2 percent of the Earth’s atmosphere). The formation of an ozone layer forced the tipping of the entire atmosphere from one stable state for atmospheric oxygen to another.

700,000,000 “Snowball Earth”: “Snowball Earth” refers to the extreme glaciation which took place when the portion of the Earth’s surface covered with ice and snow reached a critical threshold. The whole global climate system passed a tipping point and changed to an alterative state in which the Earth was completely covered with ice and snow (perhaps with some open water remaining around the equator).

100,000,000 “Oceanic Anoxic Events”: “Oceanic Anoxic Events” refer to large volumes of deep sea which became devoid of oxygen, causing mass extinctions. The onset of these events involved a strong positive feedback loop, whereby anoxia caused more phosphorus to be released from ocean sediments, which fueled more reproduction at the surface of the ocean, and more anoxia at depth.

55,000,000 The “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum”: The “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum” refers to a warm spike in the Earth’s temperature which occurred near the transition between the Paleocene Epoch (65-54 million years ago) and the Eocene Epoch (54-37 million years ago). A small initial perturbation of the frozen methane hydrates under the ocean sediments released a large amount of carbon from fossils into the atmosphere (a situation similar to today’s carbon emissions). Temperature at the equator rose 5 degrees and at the poles 10 degrees Celsius. It took about 100,000 years for the climate system to recover from this tipping of its frozen methane hydrates component.

5,000 The Desertification of the Sahara: The climate system in our present, inter-glacial Holocene Epoch (10,000 years ago – Present), seems more stable than that in the Pleistocene Epoch (2.5 million – 10,000 years ago). However, the desertification of the Sahara from its previous vegetated state was a rapid, non-linear transition. Its origin is unclear.

(Hare 2009, pp. 17-18. Lenton 2009, pp. 1-5. United States Government, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center 1996, p. 6. Wikipedia 2009 “Dansgaard-Oeschger Event,” pp. 1-2).

risk of present TIPPING: Smooth projections of global change may lull humanity into a false sense of security. Anthropogenic global warming could bring several elements of the climate system to their tipping point before 2100. Table 9 summarizes nine of these. The first six have a high degree of certainty (the first two being the greatest threats), and the last three have a lower degree of certainty.

Table 9: Possible present-day Tippings^(a)

Temperature Rise above Tipping Climate Element

the pre-industrial Level

(Degrees Celsius)

0.8-2.6 Arctic Summer Sea Ice: The tipping of Arctic sea ice engendered by global warming, is a serious present threat.

Between 2001 and 2007, the thickness of North Pole ice decreased by half.

In late summer 2008, both the Northwest and Northeast passages opened for the first time in 125,000 years – that is, since the beginning of the last glacial period (Ice Age) of the Pleistocene Epoch (2,500,000 - 10,000 years ago). The North Pole could be circumnavigated. To date, this is the most important geographical landmark signaling the rapid and dramatic warming of Planet Earth, and represents the first major component of the Earth’s climate system to reach its tipping point.

The process is now self-perpetuating – as white ice is replaced by sea, the dark surface of the water absorbs more heat, causing a warming of the ocean and more ice melt (the “albedo flip”). The ice is expected to disappear completely by 2013.

(A measure of the rapidity of this transition is provided by the expectations of the climate models which the United States Government used, in 2000, for its planning. The Hadley Center, UK, predicted a 45 percent loss, and the Canadian Climate Center, a 100 percent loss of Arctic summer sea ice, by 2095).

The loss of Arctic summer sea ice produces positive feedback for other major components of the Earth’s climate system. It amplifies warming:

1. Of the adjacent continents, thereby accelerating the decay of permafrost. Permafrost acts as a lid, preventing methane, released from methane clathrate (hydrate) crystals (rendered unstable by warming), from escaping into the atmosphere.

2. Of the West Antarctic and the Greenland ice sheets.

(Table 9, continued)

In 2007, publishing in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y., assessed the chances of a tipping in the Earth’s climate due to the “albedo flip”:

“Paleoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states.

One feedback, the “albedo flip” property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that “flips” the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet, can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provide only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming.

Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures” (Hansen et al 2007, p. 1).

1.9-2.0 The Greenland Ice Sheet: The tipping of the Greenland Ice Sheet, engendered by global warming, is a serious present threat.

At temperature levels of 1.9-2.0 degrees above pre-industrial level, the Greenland ice sheet could approach a tipping point. A meltdown would raise sea level by 6-7 meters over several centuries to millennia. When a warming in this range occurred during the last inter-glacial period (125,000 years ago), the rise in sea level was approximately 1.6 meters per century. Total collapse could occur in 300 years.

(Table 9, continued)

1.5-2.0 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below sea level. Collapse would be due to the retreat of its grounding line, which would produce a strong positive feedback, with ocean water undercutting the ice sheet and triggering further separation from the bedrock.

The likelihood of partial or complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet increases as global temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Once started, the process of disintegration would continue until a new equilibrium is reached. Complete disintegration would raise sea level by 4-6 meters over the course of several centuries to millennia. Total collapse could occur in 300 years.

2.5-3.0 The Amazon Rainforest: A collapse of the Amazon rainforest could occur at a temperature of 2.5 or more above the pre-industrial level, due to both warming and reductions in rainfall. Slowing of the thermohaline circulation could engender a positive feedback loop, by reducing rainfall even further – as happened during the 2005 drought, the most severe in Amazonian recorded history, and a possible prelude to the future.

3 (?) The Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: A shut-off of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation can occur, if sufficient freshwater (and/or heat) enters the North Atlantic to halt the density-driven North Atlantic Deep Water Formation.

The tipping of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation could occur before 2100, with a qualitative change before 3,000. A slow-down or complete shutdown of the Circulation would cool the North Atlantic, producing cooling (or lesser warming) of adjacent continents. Europe as a whole, and particularly the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the Scandinavian countries, would be affected the most.

3(?) Boreal Forests: Decreased reproduction rates, increased water stress, and increased peak summer heat stress (with increased mortality, vulnerability to disease and subsequent fire), could lead to large-scale dieback of the boreal forests. The transition would be to open woodlands or grasslands. The threshold for boreal forest dieback is probably in the range of 3 degrees Celsius of global warming.

(Table 9, continued)

? El Nino-Southern Oscillation: Increased ocean heat uptake could cause a permanent shift from the present variability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, to greater amplitude (although there would be no change in frequency). An increase in El Nino-Southern Oscillation will probably occur before 2100, with a full transition before 3,000. The existence and location of any threshold, however, is uncertain.

? Indian Summer Monsoon: The pressure gradient in the air over land and over the ocean drives the monsoon circulation. In a feedback loop, this gradient is amplified by the moisture which the monsoon itself carries from the adjacent Indian Ocean. Any weakening of the driving pressure gradient, can destabilize the monsoon circulation. Switches can occur between two highly non-linear meta-stable regimes corresponding to the “active” and “weak” monsoon phases. A threshold condition for a weakening of the monsoon could occur before 2100.

? Sahara/Sahel and West African Monsoon: The collapse of vegetation in the Sahara, about 5,000 years ago, was very rapid. The Saharan/Sahel climate depends on the West African Monsoon, which itself depends on an asymmetric pattern of sea surface temperatures between the hemispheres. Greenhouse gases forcing is expected to increase the difference in sea surface temperatures between the hemisphere, and therefore increase rainfall. Greening of the Sahara/Sahel is a rare example of a potential tipping element of which the transition would have beneficial effects.

____________________________

^(a) Hare 2009, pp. 17-18 and 20-21. Lenton et al 2008, pp. 1-13. Lean 2008, p. 1. McKibben 2009. Hansen et al 2007, p. 1. Lovejoy 2009, p. 68. Connor 2008a, pp. 1-3. Connor 2008b, pp. 1-2. United States Government, United States Global Change Research Program 2000, p. 76. Wikipedia 2009 “Effects of Global Warming,” pp. 13-14 and 16.

Impacts of GLOBal warming

Global warming impacts all life on the planet. “Climate surprises are to be expected,” announced the United States National Academy of Sciences, in 2002. The following are some of the major impacts predicted.

Sea Level:

1. Thermal Expansion: Over the course of several centuries, thermal expansion of the ocean will cause a rise of 40 (from 20 to 60) centimeters per degree Celsius of average global warming. This is in addition to the rise due to the loss of ice sheets and glaciers.

2. Total Rise to Date: During the period 1870-2001, thermal expansion, and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, produced a rise of 20 centimeters in sea level.

During the period 1990-2006, sea level rose by an average of 0.3 centimeters per year (30 centimeters per decade).

3. Projected Total Rise: Two projections, more recent than those of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report (2007), show the following results:

a. Stefan Rahmstorf: In 2007, using the projections of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report (2007), and basing his analysis on the observed relationship between sea level and temperature, 1900-2000, Stefan Rahmstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, projected a sea level rise of 50-140 centimeters (0.5-1.4 meters), 1990-2100.

b. James Hansen: In 2008, assuming business-as-usual emissions, James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y., predicted a rise of 200 centimeters (2.0 meters) before 2100. A stable shoreline would not be re-established within any human time frame.

4. Population affected: More than half of the world’s population lives within 60 kilometers of the sea. A sea level rise of 100 centimeters (1 meter) exposes about 145 million people to flooding. Asia would be the most affected. Most vulnerable are small island countries (such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu), Bangladesh, and populations in the Ganges-Brahmaputra (in Bangladesh), Mekong and Nile deltas.

Plant and animal Species: During the period 1950-2000, 1,700 plant, animal and insect species migrated pole-ward at an average rate of 0.6 kilometers (0.4 miles) per year. This is painfully slow compared to the movement of isotherms (lines of average temperature, a measure of climatic zones). During the period 1975-2005, isotherms moved pole-ward at about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) per year.

By 2008, arid, sub-tropical climate zones had expanded toward the poles by an average of 400 kilometers (250 mile) since pre-industrial time.

By 2002, frogs were breeding, flowers were blossoming and birds were migrating an average of 0.23 days earlier per year (2.3 days per decade).

The inter-dependence of species may cause ecosystems to collapse as apex species become extinct.

Coral reefs: Coral reefs provide shelter for 33 percent of marine species. Ocean acidity produces bleaching and eventually death of coral reef systems. The pH of surface ocean has decreased from 8.25 to 8.14, 1880-2004. It is projected to decrease to 8.0 or even 7.6, 2004-2100. Even if greenhouse gases emissions are stopped, the process will take hundreds of years to reverse itself.

Fresh Water:

1. Surface Water: The United Nations Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (2007), concludes that a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, could cause the glacial areas in the Himalayas and Tibetan plateau to undergo an 80 percent reduction by 2050. The Himalayan glaciers are the source of Asia’s major rivers – the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Huang He (Yellow) rivers. Of the world’s 6.6 billion population, in 2007, 2.4 billion (37 percent) lived in the drainage basins of these rivers.

In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme, based in Nairobi, Kenya, and the World Glacier Monitoring Service, based in Zurich, Switzerland, jointly reported that observations of 1,800 glaciers on the seven continents, show that the loss of ice is increasing exponentially. The average annual rate has doubled every decade since 1976: 1976-1985, 1986-1995, and 1996-2005.

A global temperature rise of 2 degrees above the pre-industrial level would put two billion people at risk of increased water stress.

2. Aquifers: Aquifer replenishment depends on the type of soil and type of vegetation on which rainfalls occur, and on the timing (in relation to growing season), frequency and duration of the rainfalls. Of particular interest to semi-arid and arid regions, is that a 20 percent decrease in rainfall can cause a 70 percent decrease in the replenishment of local aquifers.

Food: The World Bank estimates that, in 2008, approximately 1 billion people (15 percent) of the 6.7 billion world population, lived on $1 or less per day, and hence, can be considered malnourished because at that economic level, it is impossible to obtain an adequate diet.

Global warming increases the frequency of droughts, flooding, and heat waves which can devastate crops. Warming itself may produce a decline in crop yields. In 2004, Shaobing Peng et al, at the International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, the Philippines, showed that every one degree Celsius increase in night-time temperature, decreased rice yield by 10 percent.

In 2008, David Lobell et al, at Stanford University, published, in Science, the results of their analysis of crops eaten by the poor, in 12 food-insecure regions of the world. They found Southern Africa and South Asia to be the most vulnerable:

1. Southern Africa: By 2030, projected trends in climate could cause Southern Africa to have a decrease of 30 percent in its maize crop, as compared to 1990. Maize is the most important source of calories for the poor in the region.

The World Bank estimates that, in 2004, there were 309 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa who lived on $1 a day or less – all assumed to be malnourished.

2. South Asia: By 2030, projected trends in climate could cause South Asia to have a 10 percent decrease in crops of regional staples, as compared to 1990, including wheat, rapeseed, rice, millet and maize.

The World Bank estimates that, in 2004, there were 456 million people in South Asia who lived on $1 a day or less – all assumed to be malnourished.

Extreme Weather Events: Increased evaporation causes more extreme weather, with intense storms and floods being particularly likely in deltas and coastal regions. Worldwide, during the period 1975-1995, the proportion of hurricanes which reached categories 4 and 5 (wind speeds of more than 56 meters per second) rose from 20 to 35 percent.

In the mountains, water from melting glaciers forms lakes which are prone to bursting from their confines, producing high-intensity “glacial lake outburst floods.”

Decreased rainfall and more frequent droughts increase the chances of forest fires, which are likely to be on a larger scale and more regular than before. Fires both release carbon into the atmosphere and reduce for the size of forested areas, each one of these processes creating a positive feedback loop for global warming.

human mortality:

Direct Effects of Warming: Warming itself increases mortality in a variety of ways, many of them acting synergistically.

Heat Waves, Floods and Droughts: Perturbations of the ecosystem, such as heat waves, floods and drought, increase mortality directly, and also indirectly, by possibly overwhelming the public health infrastructure.

Extension in the Range and Activity of Vectors: Important disease vectors which are likely to increase their range and activity, include:

Mosquitoes: Mosquitoes transmit malaria (in 2002, the cause of 1.3 million deaths worldwide), dengue fever (breakbone fever), yellow fever, West Nile fever, and several types of encephalitic syndromes.

Rodents: Rodents are the source of the Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome; the fleas of rodents cause plague.

Ticks: Tick-born diseases may emerge in areas previously free of them, such as, for instance, Europe.

The severity of tick-borne diseases may be influenced by global warming. The deer tick, for example, transmitter of Lyme disease, causes a more severe disease in climates which are stably warm (such as the Northeastern compared to the Upper Midwest United States).

Increase in water-borne Diseases: Water-borne or food-borne diseases include cholera, typhoid, salmonellosis, and giardiasis.

Increase in diarrheal Diseases: In 2002, diarrheal diseases caused of 1.8 million deaths worldwide.

Increase in infectious, cardiovascular and pulmonary Diseases: Included in these diseases are tuberculosis (in 2002, the cause of 1.6 million deaths worldwide) and asthma.

Vulnerability Factors: The burden of disease will be imposed on an already highly vulnerable population

Malnutrition: Malnutrition is an important factor which increases vulnerability to infectious diseases. In 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) determined that poor nutrition is an underlying factor in at least half of the yearly 10.9 million deaths among children – a total of 5.5 million child deaths annually.

For common diseases, undernutrition as an underlying cause is in the range of 50 percent:

Diarrhea 61 percent

Malaria 57 percent

Pneumonia 52 percent

Measles 45 percent.

Poverty: The World Bank estimates that, in 2008, out of a world population of 6.7 billion, approximately 1 billion people lived on $1 or less per day, an economic situation in which it is not possible to have an adequate diet.

Clean Water: In the early 2000’s, out of a world population of 6 billion, 1.1 billion did not have access to adequate supplies of safe water.

Sanitation: In the early 2000’s, 2.4 billion people did not have access to adequate sanitation.

Education: In the early 2000’s, 1 billion people were unable to read a book or sign their names.

(United States National Academy of Science, 2002, quoted in Wikipedia 2009 “Effects of Global Warming,” pp. 3 and 34. Hare 2009, pp. 16 and 20-21. United States Government, National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2006, p. 3. Collins 2009, pp. 2-3. Polya 2008, pp. 1-9. Chandler 2008, p. 1-2. Dodman, Ayers and Huq 2009, p. 157. United Nations Environment Programme 2007, p. 1. Jowit 2009, pp. 1-4. People and the Planet 2007, pp. 2, 4 and 9. Peng et al 2004, p. 1. Lobell et al 2008a pp. 1-2. Lobell et al 2008b, pp. 1-3).

(United Nations, World Health Organization 2007, p. 2. Khasnis and Nettleman 2005, pp. 1-15. Epstein 2000, pp. 1-3. Science Daily 2009, p. 1. Shah 2009, pp. 1-3. United States government, Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 3. World Hunger Education Service 2009, pp. 1-5).

(Wikipedia 2009 “Global Warming,” p. 13. Wikipedia “Climate Change and Agriculture,” p. 3. Wikipedia 2009 “Effects of Global Warming,” pp. 5, 9, 16, 22, 26 and 30-31. Wikipedia 2009 “Mortality from infectious Diseases,” p. 1).

INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON the Environment

Ozone Layer-Depleting Substances:

The Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol – Antecedents: Negotiations to reduce ozone-depleting gases has acted as a precedent for the much larger and much more complex problem of global warming.

In 1985, 20 nations sign the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

The Montreal Protocol: In 1987, 43 nations sign the supplemental treaty (amendment) to the Vienna Convention – the “Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer,” commonly known as the “Montreal Protocol.” The Protocol enters into force in 1989.

The Protocol establishes three principles which would later be used in climate negotiations. It:

1. Defines the dividing line between industrialized and “developing” countries in terms of per capita production and consumption.

2. Sets two timetables for the phasing out of the detrimental gases – an early one for industrialized countries and a later one for “developing” countries.

3. Establishes a global fund through which industrialized countries would provide funds to developing countries in their phase out of the regulated gases. By 2008, the fund had provided $2.3 billion for this purpose.

Greenhouse Gases:

The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in 1992, by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNED), agrees that:

1. “[Humanity should] achieve . . . stabilization and reconstruction of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

2. “[Countries should respond] in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and their social and economic conditions.”

In 1994, the Convention enters into force, ratified by most of the world’s nations, including the United States.

The Kyoto Protocol: In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol, the supplemental treaty (amendment) to the UNFCCC, establishes legally binding commitments for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community, to reduce four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulfur hexafluoride) and two groups of greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons). On average, by 2012, the reductions have to be of 5 percent as compared to levels in 1990.

The focus on industrialized countries is considered a first step in a two-phase process similar to that which is being successfully implemented under the terms of the 1987 Montreal Protocol on ozone layer-depleting gases.

Originally, the intent was that the required reductions in emissions be achieved by means of actual emissions cuts within each industrialized country. Negotiations, however, result in countries being allowed three market-based mechanisms to meet their targets:

1. Emissions Trading: A “carbon market” allows industrialized countries to trade un-needed emission credits among themselves.

2. “Joint Implementation”: “Joint Implementation” allows industrialized countries to work jointly on projects which promise to cut emissions in another participating industrialized country.

3. “Clean Development Mechanism”: A “Clean Development Mechanism” allows industrialized countries to invest in projects in developing countries, and then buy from these countries the number of carbon credits they need in order to achieve the required reduction in emissions.

In 2005, the Protocol enters into force.

By January 2009, the Protocol had been ratified by 182 countries and the European Community.

The United States: The United States signed the Protocol symbolically in 1998, but has made known its intention not to ratify it. During the 15-year period 1992-2007, U.S. emissions increased by 20 percent – 1.3 percent per year. Had it ratified the Protocol, the U.S. would have undertaken a commitment to reduce its emissions by 7 percent, 1990-2012.

International Transport: The Kyoto Protocol gives responsibility for an agreement regarding international shipping and international aviation emissions, to industrialized countries, negotiating through two agencies of the United Nations – the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for shipping, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for aviation.

By 2009, however, neither agency had agreed on any binding measure. To date, therefore, international transport is excluded from the overall world carbon budget.

(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2009a, pp. 1-8. Engelman 2009, pp. 170-171 and 175. Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” pp. 1-6, 20-21 and 27).

Major Emitters – greenhouse gases: Table 10 summarizes emissions for the 17 countries participating in the July 2009, annual G-8 meeting. In 2004, these countries accounted for more than half of global anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions.

Table 10: Countries with high Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2004^(a)

Membership/ E m i s s i o n s, 2 0 0 4 Change Commitment Country (CO₂-equivalents) 1990-2004 by 2012 through the

Total Per Capita Kyoto Protocol/

(billion tons) (tons) (percent) (through the European Union)

______________________________________________________________________________

World 44 ^(b) 7^(b) + 38 ^(c) …

The European Union 10 ^(d) 19 ^(d) - 3 - 8

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

G-8:

Also in European Union

France 0.5 ^(e) 9 ^(e) - 4 ^(e) - 8 ( 0)

Germany 1.0 ^(e) 12 ^(e) - 18 ^(e)(f) - 8 (-21)

Italy 0.6 ^(e) 10 ^(e) + 10 ^(e) - 8 (- 7)

United Kingdom 0.7 ^(e) 11 ^(e) - 15 ^(e) - 8 (-13)

Not in European Union

Canada 0.7 ^(e) 22 ^(e) + 22 ^(e) - 6

Japan 1.3 ^(e) 10 ^(e) + 5 ^(e)(g) - 6

Russian Federation 2.2 ^(e) 15 ^(e) - 34 ^(e) 0 ^(h)

United States 7.0 ^(e) 23 ^(e) + 14 ^(e) Not a signatory

G-5:

Brazil 0.3 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 2 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 58 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

China 5.2 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 4 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 109 ^(i)(g) No commitment

India 1.3 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 1 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 97 ^(i)(g) No commitment

Mexico 0.4 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 4 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 6 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

South Africa 0.4 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 10 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 32 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

“G-3”:

Australia 0.3 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 16 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 17 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 8

Indonesia 0.4 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 2 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 77 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

Korea (Republic of) 0.5 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 10 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 93 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

Egypt 0.2 ⁽ⁱ⁾ 2 ⁽ⁱ⁾ + 110 ⁽ⁱ⁾ No commitment

____________________________________

See notes next pages.

Notes to Table 10:

^(a) Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69. Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” pp. 27-29. Wikipedia 2009 “List of Kyoto Protocol Signatories,” pp. 1-10. Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita,” pp. 2-10. Wikipedia undated “European Union,” p. 3. United States Government, Bureau of the Census 2006a, p. 3.

Greenhouse gases data include the effect of land use, land-use change, and forestry.

^(b) World greenhouse gases emissions are for 2005. World population, in 2005, was 6.5 billion. Per capita emissions, therefore, were 44/6.5 = 6.8 tons per person.

^(c) Percent Change in World Emissions: This figure of a 38 percent increase (given by Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 29), refers to the increase in greenhouse gases emissions during the time period 1992-2007. It can be compared with the figure (given by the United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 69), of a 28 percent growth in carbon dioxide emissions during the period 1990-2004.

^(d) The European Union produces about 22 percent of the global greenhouse gases emissions (Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 16. The year is unspecified). In 2008, the population of the 27 members of the European Union was 0.5 billion. The per capita emissions of the European Union, therefore, are approximately [(44 x 22)/100]/0.5 = 19.4 tons per person.

^(e) France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation, and the United States: Data are for 2006, and percent change is for 1990-2006. The data exclude land use changes (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 3). For the United States, the Pew Center for global Climate Change (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 29) reports an increase in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2004, of 16 percent.

Per capita emissions for 2005, excluding land use changes (Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita,” pp. 1-10), are similar to those given in the Table for 2004, including land use changes. The figures are: France, 9; Germany, 12; Italy, 10; United Kingdom, 11; Canada, 23; Japan 11; Russian Federation, 14; United States, 24.

Total greenhouse gases emissions, in 2004, for the G-8 countries is 14 billion tons.

^(f) Germany: During the period 1990-2008, Germany’s greenhouse gases emissions decreased by 22 percent.

^(g) For the period 1992-2007, the change in greenhouse gases emissions are: Japan, +11 percent; China, +150 percent; and India, +103 percent.

^(h) Russian Federation: The Kyoto Protocol specifies that neither a reduction is required, nor is an increase allowed. Emissions should stay at their 1990 level.

⁽ⁱ⁾ Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, and Egypt: Data refer to carbon dioxide emissions, in 2004, not greenhouse gases, and include only CO₂emissions from fossil fuel combustion, gas flaring and cement production. Data exclude land use changes.

Another source of information (Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita,” pp. 1-10) gives per capita emissions of greenhouse gases for 2005, excluding land use changes. The figures quoted are generally 1-3 percentage points higher than those given in the Table for carbon dioxide emissions, in 2004, also excluding land use changes. The two exceptions are:

1. Australia: The figure quoted for per capita greenhouse gases emissions, in 2005, is 27 tons per person – 11 tons per person higher than the figure of 16 tons per person, quoted in the Table for 2004 CO₂ emissions. The higher figure may be the more correct. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reports that the increase in Australia’s greenhouse gases emissions, excluding land use changes, 1990-2004, was 26 percent. The figure quoted in the Table, an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004, excluding land use changes, of 17 percent, may be an under-estimate.

2. South Africa: The figure for 2005 greenhouse gases is lower than the figure for 2004 CO₂emissions.

The figures given for per capita greenhouse gases emissions, in 2005, are: Brazil, 5; China, 6; India, 2; Mexico, 6; South Africa, 9; Australia, 27; Indonesia, 3; Republic of Korea, 11; and Egypt, 3.

Total carbon dioxide emissions, in 2004, for the G-5 and “G-3” countries plus Egypt, is

9 billion tons.

Table 11: Countries ranked by per capita Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2000^(a)

Country G r e e n h o u s e G a s e s C a r b o n d i o x i d e Commitment^(b)

Total Change Per capita Total Change Per capita Kyoto European

(2006) 1990-2004 (2000) (2004) 1990-2004 (2004) Protocol Union

(billion tons (percent) (tons (billion tons (percent) (percent (percent

CO₂-eq.) CO₂-eq.) CO₂-eq.) change) change)

______________________________________________________________________________

Australia … + 26^(c) 26 | 0.3 + 17 16 | + 8 …

Canada 0.7 + 27 24 | 0.6 + 54^(d) 20 | - 6 …

United States 7.0 + 20^(e) 23 | 6.0 + 25 21 | ---^(f) …

Indonesia … … 15 | 0.4 + 77 2 | None …

Russian Fed. 2.2 - 20^(e) 14 | 1.5^(g) - 23^(g) 11^(g) | + 0^(h) …

Brazil … … 13 | 0.3 + 58 2 | None …

Germany 1.0 - 18 12 | 0.8 - 18 10 | - 8 - 21.0

Korea (Rep.) … … 11 | 0.5 + 93 10 | None …

United Kingdom 0.7 - 59⁽ⁱ⁾ 11 | 0.6 + 1^(j) 10 | - 8 - 12.5

Japan 1.3 + 5^(k) 11 | 1.3 + 17 10 | - 6 …

South Africa … … 10 | 0.4 + 32 10 | None …

Italy 0.6 … 9 | 0.5 + 15 8 | - 8 - 6.5

France 0.5 - 6 9 | 0.4 + 3 6 | - 8 + 0.0^(h)

Mexico … … 6 | 0.4 + 6 4 | None …

China … + 150^(e) 4 | 5.0 + 109 4 | None …

India … + 103^(e) 2 | 1.3 + 97 1 | None …

______________________________________

See notes next page.

Notes to Table 11:

^(a) Greenhouse Gases:

Total, 2006: Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4. No reference is made as to whether the data include or exclude land use changes.

Change 1990-2004:

Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Brazil, Germany, Korea (Rep.), United Kingdom, Japan, South Africa, Italy, France and Mexico: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), “Changes in Greenhouse Gases Emissions from 1990 to 2004 for Annex I Parties.” Reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” pp. 11 and 28. Data include land use, land use changes and forestry.

United States, Russian Federation, China and India: Global Carbon Project. Reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28. No reference is made as to whether the data include or exclude land use changes.

Per capita, 2000: World Resources Institute, “Climate Analysis Indicators Tool.” The World Resources Institute obtained its data from a variety of sources, including the United States Government, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC); the United States Environmental Protection Agency; Houghton, R.A. 2003. Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management, 1850-2000; and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Global Forest Assessment Report, 2000. World Resources Institute data are reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita,” pp. 1-10. The data include land use changes, but exclude emissions from shipping fuel.

Carbon dioxide:

Total, Change 1990-2004, and per capita, 2004: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 43 and 69. United States Government, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” pp. 1-10). The data refer only to carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, fossil fuel gas flaring, and the production of cement. They exclude emissions from deforestation, and “fossil fuel exporters, etc . . .”

Commitment, Kyoto Protocol; Commitment, European Union: Data are from the United nations Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC), reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Kyoto Protocol Signatories,” pp. 1-10.

^(b) Commitments under both the Kyoto Protocol and the European Union are for greenhouse gases, not carbon dioxide.

^(c) Australia: In 2007, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reported that the 5 percent increase in greenhouse gases emissions in Australia, 1990-2004, which it had announced earlier, was an under-estimate. The new estimate was an increase of 26 percent (excluding land use, land use changes and forestry) (Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 11).

^(d) Canada: The United Nations (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69), reports a 54 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004. The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4), however, reports a 22 percent increase, 1990-2006.

^(e) United States, Russian Federation, China and India: Data are for 1992-2007.

^(f) The United States is a not a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol.

^(g) Russian Federation: Data refer to 1992. The change refers to 1992-2004.

^(h) Russian Federation (under the Kyoto Protocol), and France (as member of the European Union): No increase allowed.

⁽ⁱ⁾ United Kingdom: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28), reports that greenhouse gases emissions in the United Kingdom decreased by 59 percent, 1990-2004. The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4), however, reports a decrease of 15 percent, 1990-2006.

^(j) United Kingdom: The United Nations (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69), reports a 1 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004. In 2005, however, the United Kingdom Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 18), reported an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 20 percent during the period 1997-2007.

^(k) Japan: The United Nations (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28) gives a 5 percent increase in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2004 (including emissions due to land use, land use changes and forestry). The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4) gives the same figure of 5 percent for 1990-2006. The Global Carbon Project (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28) gives an increase of 11 percent for the period 1992-2007.

Major Emitters – Carbon dioxide: Table 12 summarizes the carbon dioxide emissions of 10 countries which together emit 67 percent of the global total.

Table 12: Countries with high Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004^(a)

Country CO₂ Emissions Percentage of Change Annual

2004 global Emissions 1990-2004 Change

(billion tons CO2) (percent) (percent per year)

______________________________________________________________________________

World 27.2 100 + 28 + 2.0

European Union 4.0 15 - -

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....

United States 6.0 22 + 25 + 1.8

China 5.0 18 +109 + 7.8

Russian Fed. 1.5 6 - 23 - 1.7

India 1.3 5 + 97 + 6.9

Japan 1.3 5 + 17 + 1.2

Germany 0.8 3 - 18 - 1.3

Canada 0.6 2 + 54 + 3.9

United Kingdom 0.6 2 + 1 + 0.1

Korea (Rep.) 0.5 2 + 93 + 6.7

Italy 0.5 2 + 15 + 1.1

Total/Average Total: 18.1 Total: 67 Average: + 37 Average: + 2.7

_________________________________

^(a)Emissions and Percentage of global Emissions: United States Government, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Carbon dioxide Emissions,” pp. 1-2. United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 41.

Change 1990-2004: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69.

Table 13: Countries ranked by per capita Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004^(a)

World/ Total CO₂ Proportion Population Per Capita Change in Change

Country Emissions of World Emissions total Emissions in total

2004 Total 2005 2004 1990-2004 Emissions

(billion tons) (percent) (millions) (tons) (percent) (per year)

______________________________________________________________________________

World 29.0^(b) 100 6,514.8 5 + 28 + 2.0^(c)

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

United States 6.0^(d) 21 299.8 21 + 25 + 1.8

Canada 0.6 2 32.3 20 + 54 + 3.9

Russian Federation^(e) 1.5 5 144.0 11 - 23 - 1.7

Japan 1.3 4 127.9 10 + 17 + 1.2

Germany 0.8 3 82.7 10 - 18 - 1.3

United Kingdom 0.6 2 60.2 10 + 1 + 0.1

Republic of Korea 0.5 2 47.9 10 + 93 + 6.7

Italy 0.5 2 58.6 8 + 15 + 1.1

China 5.0 17 1,313.0 4 + 109 + 7.8

India 1.3 5 1,134.4 1 + 97 + 6.9

________________________________

See notes next page.

Notes to Table 13:

_(a) United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 69, 243-246, and 310-313. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization 2007, p. 1. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a p. 2. Data refer to carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels, the flaring of fossil fuel gas, and the production of cement. They exclude changes in land use.

The total for the world includes emissions which are excluded from national figures, such as those from shipping fuels, the oxidation of non-fuel hydrocarbon products (such as asphalt), and emissions by countries not shown in the main indicator tables. Such emissions consist of approximately 1.5 billion tons (5 percent) of the world total.

^(b)This figure (given by the United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2009 2007, p. 69)
rounded off to 29 billion tons in 2004, is 3 billion tons more than the comparable figure of 26 billion tons in 2004, given by the United Nations, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (quoted in Brahic 2007a, p. 1). The latter figure is the one used for Table 3 (Human Alteration of the Earth’s Carbon Cycle, 2004). Neither of these figures includes land use changes, which, according to the IPCC, adds 6 another billion tons.

Using the UN figure, total CO₂emission were (29+6) = 35 billion tons in 2004.

Using the IPCC figure, total CO₂ emissions were (26+6) = 32 billion tons in 2004.

^(c)This CO₂emissions increase of 2.0 percent per year is the average of a rate of 1.1 percent per year from 1990-1999, and 3.0 percent per year from 2000-2004.

^(d) In 2004, the United States was responsible for (6.046 / 28.983) 100 = 21 percent of global CO₂ emissions. This percentage remained the same in 2005.

^(e) Emission figures refer to the year 1992. The change in emissions refers to the period 1992-2004.

public policy, selected Countries

Australia:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: In 2007, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reported that the 5 percent increase in greenhouse gases emissions in Australia, 1990-2004, it had announced earlier, was an under-estimate. The new estimate was an increase of 26 percent (excluding land use, land use changes and forestry). (The latter, corrected figure is the one entered in Table 11 (Countries ranked by per capita Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2000).

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 27 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: In 2004, per capita emissions of carbon dioxide were 16 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2007 commitment of Australia under the Kyoto Protocol, is no higher an increase than 8 percent, 1990-2012.

The government of Australia has pledged a 5-15 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 2000-2020, and is:

“prepared to reduce [emissions] by 25 percent provided other nations agree to an ambitious global deal.”

Canada:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1990-2006, greenhouse gases emissions in Canada increased by 22 percent.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 23 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes)

Carbon dioxide: The United Nations (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69), reports a 54 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004. The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4), however, reports a 22 percent increase, 1990-2006.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of Canada under the Kyoto Protocol, is a reduction in greenhouse gases of 6 percent, 1990-2012.

China:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1992-2007, greenhouse gases emissions in China increased by a factor of 2 ½ (increased by 150 percent).

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions in China were 6 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions in China doubled (increased by 109 percent). In 2004, on a per capita basis, emissions of carbon dioxide in China were 4 tons CO₂ per person – compared to India’s one (1) ton and the United States’ 21 tons per person.

In 2004, net exports accounted for 23 percent of China’s carbon emissions. These exports consisted mostly of consumer goods, such as textiles, footwear, and electronics consumed by industrialized countries (Wang and Watson 2009, pp. 88 and 89).

Official Actions: China ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, but was not assigned a target for reductions in greenhouse gases.

Like Brazil (with per capita CO₂ emissions of 5 tons per person), India (with per capita CO₂emissions of 1 ton per person), and Mexico (with per capita CO₂ emissions of 4 tons per person), China resists attempts by the European Union and United States to commit itself to a reduction goal, demanding first more stringent 10-year goals on the part of industrialized countries themselves, and more aid from them to convert their own economies to sustainable forms of energy.

France:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1990-2006, greenhouse gases emission in France decreased by 4 percent.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 9 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions in France increased by 3 percent. In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 6 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of France under the Kyoto Protocol is a decrease in greenhouse gases emissions of 8 percent, 1990-2012.

France obtains 80 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, and closed its last coal mine in 2004.

Germany:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1990-2006, greenhouse gases emissions in Germany decreased by 18 percent, and during the period 1990-2008, by 22 percent.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions in Germany were 12 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions in Germany decreased by 18 percent. In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 10 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of Germany under the Kyoto Protocol is a decrease in greenhouse gases of 8 percent, 1990-2012.

Korea (Republic of):

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions in South Korea were 11 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions almost doubled (increased by 93 percent).

In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 10 tons per person – on a par with Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom (all 10 tons CO₂ per person). This amount is half of what Canada and the United States were emitting that year – 20 and 21 tons CO₂ per person, respectively.

Official Actions: South Korea ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, but was not assigned a reduction target for greenhouse gases.

India:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1992-2007, greenhouse gases emissions in India doubled (increased by 103 percent).

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 2 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions doubled (increased by 97 percent). In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were one (1) ton per person – compared to China’s 4 and the United States’ 21 tons per person.

Official Actions: India ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, but was not assigned a reduction target for greenhouse gases.

In June, 2009, India’s Minister of the Environment announced that his country:

“will not accept any emission reduction target.”

In July, 2009, a similar categorical refusal to accept mandatory national reductions in emissions was repeated.

Italy:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1990-2006, greenhouse gases emissions in Italy increased by 10 percent. On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 10 tons per person (excluding emissions due to changes in land use).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions increased by 15 percent. In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 8 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of Italy under the Kyoto Protocol is a decrease in greenhouse gases emissions of 8 percent, 1990-2012.

Japan:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: The United Nations (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28) gives a 5 percent increase in greenhouses gases, 1990-2004 (including emissions due to land use, land use changes and forestry). The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4) gives the same figure for the period 1990-2006. The Global Carbon Project (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28), reports that during the period 1992-2007, greenhouse gases emissions in Japan emissions increased by 11 percent.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 11 tons per person (excluding emissions due to changes in land use).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions increased by 17 percent. In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 10 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of Japan under the Kyoto Protocol is an decrease in greenhouse gases emissions of 6 percent, 1990-2012.

Japan has pledged a 15 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 2005-2020. According to calculations done by environmentalists, this is equivalent to an 8-9 percent reduction, 1990-2020.

Since, under the Kyoto Protocol, Japan is already committed to a 6 percent reduction, 1990-2012, the new pledge of an 8-9 percent reduction by 2020, represents only a further 2-3 percentage point above the country’s previous commitment.

Russian Federation:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: During the period 1990-2006, greenhouse gases emissions in the Russian Federation decreased by 34 percent – mostly due to the economic collapse of most of the countries in the former Soviet Union.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 14 tons per person (excluding emissions due to changes in land use).

Carbon dioxide: During the period 1990-2004, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 23 percent. In 2004, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 11 tons per person.

Official Actions: Current emissions are substantially below the zero increase, 1990-2012, to which the country committed itself, in 2004, under the Kyoto Protocol.

United Kingdom:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28), reports that greenhouse gases emissions in the United Kingdom decreased by 59 percent, 1990-2004. The Government of Canada (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4), however, reports a decrease of 15 percent, 1990-2006.

On a per capita basis, in 2005, greenhouse gases emissions were 11 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Carbon dioxide: The United Nations (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69), reports a 1 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004. In 2005, however, the United Kingdom Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 18), reported an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 20 percent, 1997-2007.

In 2006, on a per capita basis, carbon dioxide emissions were 10 tons per person.

Official Actions: The 2002 commitment of the United Kingdom under the Kyoto Protocol is a decrease in greenhouse gases emissions of 8 percent, 1990-2012.

In 2008, the United Kingdom passed a law establishing the target of an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2050. In taking this action, the UK became the first country to pass a law establishing a significant long-range carbon dioxide reduction goal.

United States:

Emissions:

Greenhouse Gases: In 2007, the United States emitted 7.3 billion tons CO₂-equivalents of greenhouse gases.

U.S. Share of global Emissions: Using the World Resources Institute figure of 44.14 billion tons CO₂-equivalents for global emissions, in 2005, and the Energy Information Administration figure of 7.18 billion tons CO₂-equivalents for U.S. emissions, in 2006, one can estimate that in 2005-2006, the U.S. emitted (7.18 / 44.14) = 16 percent of global emissions.

Per capita Emissions: In 2006, greenhouse gases emissions were 23 tons per person (excluding emissions due to land use changes).

Increase in Emissions: During the period 1992-2007, greenhouse gases emissions increased by 20 percent. Table 14 (Increase in Greenhouse Gases, United states, 1990-2007) summarizes the data.

(Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 29. World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data. United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008b, p. 1).

Table 14: Increase in Greenhouse Gases, United States, 1990-2007^(a)

Year/ Emissions Increase during Average Yearly Increase

Period during year previous Period during previous Period

(billion tons CO₂-eq.) (percent) (per year)

________________________________________________________________________

1990 6.24 - -

1995 6.58 + 5.5 + 1.1

2000 7.08 + 7.6 + 1.5

2005 7.26 + 2.6 + 0.5

2006 7.18 - 1.1 - 1.1

2007 (preliminary) 7.28 ^(b) + 1.4 + 1.4

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

1990-2004 - + 15.9 + 1.1

1990-2005 - + 16.4 + 1.1

1990-2006 - + 15.1^(c) + 1.0

1992-2007 - + 20.0 + 1.3

____________________________________________________________

^(a) United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008b, p. 1. For the period 1992-2007, Global Carbon Project (data reproduced in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 28).

^(b) The composition of these 7.28 billion tons of greenhouse gases emitted, in 2007, was carbon dioxide, 83 percent; methane, 10 percent; nitrous oxide, 5 percent; and gases with a high global warming potential, 3 percent.

(Public Policy, selected Countries, United States, continued)

Carbon dioxide: In 2004, the U.S. emitted 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Emission increased by 25 percent, 1990-2004 – an average of 1.8 percent per year. On a per capita basis, in 2004, emissions were 21 tons per person (compared to China’s 4 tons and India’s 1 ton per person).

Official Actions: As of this writing, the U.S. does not have a federal policy for reducing greenhouse gases emissions.

Kyoto Protocol: The U.S. has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Were it to do so, its assigned greenhouse gases reduction goal would have been 7 percent, 1990-2012.

The Waxman-Markey Bill: The 1,200 page Waxman-Markey bill passed the House of Representatives on June 27, 2009, by a vote of 219-212. The bill calls for a 17 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 2005-2020. According to calculations by the European Union, this is equivalent to a 12 percent reduction by 2020, calculated from the internationally accepted year of 1990 as the base year.

Had the United States ratified the Kyoto Protocol, its assigned reduction goal would have been of 7 percent, 1990-2012. Assuming that the country had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and met its commitment of a 7 percent reduction, 1990-2012, the Waxman-Markey bill calls for another 5 percentage points reduction by 2020.

The bill also calls for an 83 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions by 2005-2050.

[Unless specified otherwise, references for “Public Policy, selected Countries” are the same as for:

Table 10 (Countries with high Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2004),

Table 11 (Countries ranked by per capita Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2000),

Table 12 (Countries with high Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004), and

Table 13 (Countries ranked by per capita Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004)].

Reliability of the data

Inconsistency of various estimates: Examples of inconsistent estimates include:

Greenhouse Gases: As of 2009, there was no data base, by country, for the emission of greenhouse gases (Engelman 2009, p. 182). Global greenhouse gases emissions are variously quoted as:

1. 48 billion tons CO₂-equivalents, in 2004 (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, pp. 33 and 34).

2. 49 billion tons CO₂-equivalents, in 2004 (Scherr and Sthapit 2009, p. 32).

3. 44 billion tons CO₂-equivalents, in 2005 (World Resources Institute, World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data, p. 2).

Carbon dioxide: Global carbon dioxide emissions are variously quoted as:

1. 26.4 billion tons, in 2004, including fossil fuel combustion, and “industrial processes,” and excluding changes in land use. Including changes in land use would lower the total to 22.8 billion tons (United States Government, Energy Information Administration 2008a, p. 2).

2. 27.2 billion tons, in 2004, including fossil fuel combustion, and excluding the effects of deforestation, and “fossil fuel exporters, etc . . .” (Data collected for the United Nations by the United States Government, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Quoted in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Carbon dioxide Emissions,” p. 1).

3. 29.0 billion tons, in 2004 –

a. Including only fossil fuel combustion and cement production; and including emissions not included in national totals, such as from shipping fuels, oxidation of non-fuel hydrocarbon products (such as asphalt), and emission by countries not shown in the main indicator table. These emissions amount to approximately 5 percent of the world total.

b. Excluding changes in land use (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 313).

4. 29.4 billion tons, in 2005 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization 2007, p. 1).

Land Use Changes: The sector of the economy categorized as “land use changes,” includes deforestation, harvest/management, and afforestation (the planting of new forests on lands which historically have not been covered by forests). Deforestation accounts for 90 percent of the sector.

In its World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2000 Data, the World Resources Institute estimated that deforestation contributed 18 percent of total global greenhouse gases emissions (7.5 out of a total of 41.8 billion tons).

Scherr and Sthapit 2009, pp. 31-32, using 2004 data, quote a similar figure – deforestation contributing 17 percent of global greenhouse gases emissions (8.5 out of a total of 49 billion tons).

For its World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart undated, 2005 Data, however, the World Resources Institute revised its methodology for the calculation of deforestation, now estimating it to account for only 11 percent of total greenhouse gases emissions. The Institute cautions that the discrepancy is due to its new methodology, not to any actual decrease in deforestation rates.

Depending on the methodology, therefore, the inclusion or exclusion of land use changes can make a 6-7 percentage point difference in the total greenhouse gases estimate presented.

Increases in Emissions, by Country: Reported increases in emissions for individual countries may also vary widely according to source. Australia, for example, is variously reported to have had:

1. A projected 9 percent growth in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2012, including the effects of land use, land use change, and forestry (Report by Ross Garnaut, 2008, commissioned by the Australian Government. Quoted in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” pp. 10-11).

2. A 26 percent growth in greenhouse gases emissions, 1990-2004, excluding the effects of land use, land use change, and forestry [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2007. Quoted in Wikipedia 2009 “Kyoto Protocol,” p. 11].

3. A 17 percent growth in carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2004, including the combustion and flaring of fossil fuels, and the production of cement, but excluding changes in land use (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69).

[For more examples of the general unreliability of estimates presented, see:

Table 10 (Countries with high Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2004),

Table 11 (Countries ranked by per capita Greenhouse Gases Emissions, 2000),

Table 12 (Countries with high Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004), and

Table 13 (Countries ranked by per capita Carbon dioxide Emissions, 2004)].

use of the Decimal Point: In view of the uncertainty of the data base, and the lack of any standard of what the data should include, it seem disingenuous to report data to the decimal place. Examples include:

1. The Target agreed to by the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), in the Kyoto Protocol (1997): The Kyoto Protocol requires an average reduction in greenhouse gases emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 percent, 1990-2012.

2. Reporting per capita Emissions to the decimal Place: Reporting emissions to the decimal place gives a false sense that the data are accurate and reliable.

a. Australia: In Australia:

i. Greenhouse gases emissions, in 2005, were 26.9 tons CO₂-equivalents per person (World Resources Institute undated, 2005 Data, quoted in Wikipedia 2009 “List of Countries by Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita,” p. 2).

ii. Carbon dioxide emissions, in 2004, were 16.2 tons per person (United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008 2007, p. 69).

b. Canada: In Canada, greenhouse gases emissions, in 2006, were 22.09 tons CO₂-equivalents per capita (Canadian Government, Environment Canada 2009, p. 4).

Conclusions

1. The Enormity of the atrocity: Claudia Card, in The atrocity paradigm B a theory of evil (2002), suggests evaluating atrocities (suffering inflicted by moral agents) in terms of the severity of the suffering inflicted. This permits the ranking of atrocities according to their severity, while avoiding the issue of motivation, and by-passing the need to make a global judgment, demeaning to the victims, ranking one atrocity as “worse” than another.

Card suggests the following criteria:

Non-quantifiable Factors:

* Intensity of suffering.

* Effect on a person=s ability to function, such as work.

* Effect on the quality of a person=s relationship with others.

* Psychological effects on the children of the survivors.

Quantifiable Factors:

* The number of victims.

* The overt signs of suffering.

* The duration of the harm.

* The containability of the harm.

* The reversibility of the harm.

* The overt effect on the children of survivors.

* The possibility for compensation (Card 2002, pp. 14 and 20; summarized in Hall 2005c, p. 5).

Knowingly producing the disintegration of life on earth, thereby bequeathing to future generations of all species an inhospitable, and for most species an inhabitable planet, surely is the ultimate atrocity that any moral agent could ever commit. Yet, we, at this juncture in our history, are the culpable moral agents. The atrocity is democide by ecocide on a global scale. One trembles at the thought of being a member of the perpetrating species.

The many atrocities of the late 20^th century fade in comparison, although in retrospect, were a prelude. A few examples include the Holocaust (1937/1939-1945); the bombings of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo, Hamburg and Dresden (1943-1945); the genocide in Khmer Rouge Cambodia (1975-1979); the genocide in East Timor (1975-1985); the genocide in Burundi (1993-1996); the genocide in Rwanda (1994); the rape/death camps in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1995); torture; radioactive, biological and chemical warfare; and the raising of animals in factory farms, with the butchering of them in mass-production slaughterhouses (Card 2002, pp. 5, 8-9, 12 and 14-16, summarized in Hall 2005c, pp. 1-5. White 1999b, pp. 1-11, summarized in Hall 2008a, p. 4. Pollan 2006, pp. 66-68, 200-201, 218, and 317-318, summarized in Hall 2009, pp. 45-46).

2. Historical and cultural Context: Western culture, which now dominates the world, has a history of disdain for nature in general, and life itself in particular. The roots of this attitude date back to Genesis, 3000 years ago:

ABe fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth and subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the air, and over every living thing that moves upon the earth . . . Be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth and subdue it@ (Genesis, c.1,150 B.C.E. Chapter 1, quoted in Ponting 1991/1992, p. 143, re- quoted in Hall 2007b, p. 36).

AEvery moving thing that lives shall be food for you. And as I gave you the green plants, I give you everything . . . The fear of you and the dread of you shall be upon every beast of the earth, and upon every fowl of the air, upon all that moves upon the earth, and upon all the fishes of the sea. Into your hand, are they delivered@ (Genesis, c.1,150 B.C.E. Chapter 2, quoted in Ponting 1991/1992, pp. 143-144, re- quoted in Hall 2007b, p. 36)

In just the past century, World War I, 1914-1918, caused 15 million deaths (including the Armenian massacres), and World War II, 1937/39-1945, 55 million deaths. War deaths during the 20^th century totaled 188 million (White 2001/2004, pp. 1-3 and 5, White 1999a, pp. 1-2, and White 2001/2005, p. 1, all three summarized in Hall 2008a, pp. 4-5).

On October 27, 1962, off the cost of Cuba, the Cold War brought the world to near nuclear disaster, averted only because Soviet submarine officer Vasili Arkhipov, while under attack by U.S. destroyers, blocked an order to retaliate with nuclear-armed torpedoes (Chomsky 2003, pp. 12 and 74, summarized in Hall 2004b, pp. 1 and 4-5).

In 1998, the world had a total of 33,496 warheads, the radiation equivalent of 604,900 Hiroshima bombs. At the turn of the century, humanity had the radiation equivalent of 3 Hiroshima bombs per 100 persons on earth, in storage, available for use (Dumas 1999, pp. 16-17, summarized in Hall 2004a, p. 1. Hall 2005a, pp. 4 an 6. Hall 2005b, pp. 2 and 7-8).

At present, dangerous technologies include radioactive weaponry, space exploration with nuclear fuel, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, artificial life, nanotechnology, robotics, and the convergence of these technologies (such as nano-bio-technology and synthetic biology).

Viewed from this perspective, the warming of the earth through the profligate use of fossil fuels is the culmination of an emotional detachment from nature, accompanied by a disdain for life. Recommended solutions to global warming, which interpret the problem as just another challenge to our technology, partake of the same attitude. Examples include “climate geo-engineering,” “solar radiation management,” “ecosystem management,” “carbon dioxide sequestration” (burial), evaluating nature in terms of the “services” it provides for us, and the implication that new technologies will satisfactorily help us “adapt” to a warmer planet.

3. Pre-requisites for a Solution: The solution to global warming depends on our willingness to do the following:

a. Humility: Our sense of arrogance and wish for transcendence must give way to an appropriate sense of humility, respect and connection. We are part of nature, not above it. We must replace a god who tells us to subjugate nature, with one who helps us accept our limitations as humans.

b. Global Institutions: Warming is a global problem which requires global institutions able to respond to it. The United Nations is not adequate to the task. It is an inter-national institution, representing the interests of each country separately, not the interests of humanity as a whole. The United Nations is not democratic. We need a democratically elected world institution which represents impartially the interests of all world citizens.

c. Rationing: We need to reduce our emissions of greenhouses gases to zero, and in the meantime, allocate permissible emissions by means of a system of world per capita rationing. This avoids the privatization of our air, which the allocation of permits to polluters does; it forestalls systems which escape accounting, such as carbon trading, and emissions “set-off” programs do; and it automatically includes emissions presently excluded from international treaties, such as international aviation and international shipping. Rationing will set off an immediate drive for comprehensive and effective conservation measures.

Rationing must remain outside the market system. Rations must not be saleable.

The decrease of the rationed amount of greenhouse gases down to zero, must be slow enough so as not to incur an intolerable number of human deaths, but fast enough so as to incur fewer human deaths than those attributable to global warming.

In 2005, with a world population of 6.5 billion, and total greenhouse gases emissions of 44 billion tons CO₂-equivalents, the per capita emissions were 6.8 tons CO₂-equivalents per person.

In 2010, with a world population of 6.8 billion, an initial rationing level of 4 tons CO₂-equivalents per capita (the present level in China and Mexico), would give total world emissions of (4 x 6.8) = 27.2 billion tons CO₂-equivalents. This is 62 percent of the 44 billion tons CO₂-equivalents

emissions, in 2005 – a reduction of 38 percent.

An initial rationing level of 10 tons CO₂-equivalents per capita [the present level in Italy, Japan, South Africa, and South Korea, slightly higher than that of France (9), and slightly lower than those of the United Kingdom (11) and Germany (12)], is unacceptable. It would give total world emissions of (10 x 6.8) = 68 billion tons CO₂-equivalents.

Rationing translates immediately into behavior changes with freedom of choice. One will immediately know whether to take that trip New York-London and return (3.2 tons carbon dioxide equivalents).

d. Population Control: Humanity is overshooting the Earth’s resources by a wide margin. In 1999, David Pimentel, at Cornell University, estimated that it would require at least three times the earth’s entire resources and physical area to provide the world population with the material and energy consumed by an average North American citizen (Pimentel 1999, cited in McCluney 2005, pp. 177 and 182, summarized in Hall 2006, p. 17).

In 2009, humanity was adding to its numbers, 78 million yearly – an increase which every four years, equals the population of the United States (308 million, in 2010). The overshoot in population only leads to marginal existence for a large percentage of world citizens. These are the citizens most vulnerable to death from global warming. Through its global institutions, humanity must decide the level of resource use at which it wishes to live, and achieve a population size consistent with this goal (Wikipedia 2009 “Demographics of the United States,” p. 1).

Fears of government-imposed fertility rates are unwarranted. If given education, meaningful life opportunities, and old-age security, the great majority of women will choose to have no more than the replacement rate of 2-3 children.

e. An End to Capitalism: Capitalism has its roots around 1150, in England, with the enclosure (with fences, ditches, hedges, or other barriers) of land formerly held in common. This privatization of common land greatly expanded after 1400, peaking around 1675, then diminishing to practically zero by 1845, when no more common land was left to be privatized. The enclosure movement provided capitalism with its two mainstays – land which could be used or sold for monetary profit, and labor (the previous, now dispossessed small farmers) having no choice but to work (obeying social power) for a wage, or join the swelling ranks of “the poor.”

Both land and labor were now categorized as “commodities,” and, provided these two commodities were sufficiently cheap, the moneyed elite (investors) could accumulate a profit from their business – draw out more money than they put in. Laws made private property sacrosanct, taking priority over life and limb.

The Royal Society of London was founded in 1660, with its primary focus the advancement of technology as a way to increase profits. The Bank of England was created in 1694, establishing capitalism as an economic system on a large scale.

Since the more money one has, the greater the profit one can make, capitalism tends to a concentration of wealth, which is apparent today in the power of transnational corporations, and the international institutions which they control, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO) (Columbia Encyclopedia 2000. Hall 2008c, pp. 13 and 21. McMurtry 1998, summarized in Hall 2009, p. 26. McMurtry 1999, summarized in Hall 2008b, pp. 7 and 11-12).

As is apparent from its roots, capitalism focuses on the ability of investors to make a profit. The focus of capitalism is money.

Global warming, however, is a problem of life, not money. Capitalism does not focus on life. It is amoral. It has not prevented the problem of global warming from developing, and is ill-suited to solve the problem, once developed. Capitalism seeks profits, not sustainability of either human or environmental life.

The melting of Arctic sea ice, for instance, offers a unique opportunity for increased profits. In July 2009, the Beluga Group, Bremen, Germany, announced plans to be the first in history to use the Northern Sea Route for commercial purposes – shortening the Asia-Europe journey for its cargo ships by 13,000 kilometers (8,000 miles) (Revkin 2009, pp. 1-2. Old Salt Bog 2009, pp. 1-2. Wikipedia 2009, “Effects of global Warming,” pp. 23-24).

But the ethics of taking advantage of the fact that an environment has deteriorated sufficiently to provide new opportunities for profit-making, thereby causing the further derioration of this environment, is not up for discussion. On June 24, 2009, upon the release of the Arctic Council of Nations, Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report, of which he was chair, Lawson Brigham, at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, noted:

“It’s not a question of whether maritime industry is coming to the Arctic. The global maritime industry has already come.”

Commercial incentives include fresh water, zinc, copper, nickel, tin, oil, gas, fish, and tourism. Predictable damages include the emission of greenhouses gases and aerosols; water pollution through discharges from ships and the spilling of hazardous cargo; interference with wildlife through sound, sight and collisions; disturbance of migrating patterns; the introduction of alien, invasive species; and oil spills (to which seabirds, polar bears, seals, whales and walruses are particularly vulnerable) (University of Alaska 2009, pp. 1-3. Milkowski 2009, pp. 1-3. Both these sources include the quote from Lawson Brigham’s June 24, 2009 speech. Wikipedia 2009 “Arctic Council,” pp. 1-2).

Humanity must choose for itself an economic system which focuses on life, and encourages the common good. Money is lifeless, and capitalism emphasizes individual self-promotion. We must organize ourselves into a system which prioritizes life and cooperation.

The phrase, “a system,” is actually misleading. There is undoubtedly a variety of systems which prioritize life and cooperation. A variety of experiments with systems compatible with each other would be the best educational tool. This is in contrast to “globalization,” which imposes one system – capitalism – on all of humanity. The reason for this intolerance on the part of capitalism, has its grounding in necessity. Capitalism relies on expansion to maintain its viability. It is driven by the search for new markets, whether these be in other economic systems or in the natural world.

The money to fund the transition from capitalism to a number of regional economic systems operating side by side with each other, is not a problem. In 2008, world military expenditures were $1.5 trillion (1,500 billion dollars). In contrast, the United Nations and all of its agencies and funds, distributed 20 billion dollars – 1.3 percent of the world’s military expenditures. There is no lack of money to transfer from life-destructive to life-enhancing purposes (Global Policy Forum 2008, p. 1, summarized in Hall 2008a, p. 9).

f. Self-awareness: Global warming is not a problem in our environment. It is a reflection of processes within us. We must search within ourselves whether the destruction of life as we know it on the planet, is indeed what we want to do.

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Lobell, David, Marshall Burke, Claudia Tebaldi, Michal Mastrandrea, Walter Falcon, and Rosamond Naylor,

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2006. “The brief and disastrous Reign of Homo petrolatum.” September 30 (61 pages, unpublished).

McDonald, John. 2007. Electric power sub-stations engineering. 2^nd Edition. Boca Raton, FL: CRC.

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2008a. “In War we trust – the military Paradigm.” August 25 (45 pages, unpublished).

1998. Unequal freedoms – the global market as an ethical system. Toronto, ON, Canada: Garamond.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2009. “The Ethics of global Capitalism.” May 4 (76 pages, unpublished).

1999. The cancer stage of capitalism. Sterling, VA: Pluto.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2008b. “The Market Paradigm and the Destruction of Life.” October 21 (97 pages, unpublished).

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Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2007a. “Global Warming – an Assessment of possible Solutions.” May 26 (64 pages, unpublished).

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