December 17, 2010

 

Emergency

 

                        The destruction of the conditions for life on our planet

                        is now such as to present us with an emergency situation. 

                        We are reaching a number of tipping points, beyond which

                        trends will be self-amplifying, escaping any human control.

 

            Water:

                        In 2010, we were appropriating 62 percent of Earth’s

                        geographically accessible, stable, renewable fresh water

                        from river run-off – up from 54 percent in 1995, and on

                        course to a decidedly unrealistic 70 percent by 2025. 1

 

            Biomass:

                        As of 2000, our yearly appropriation of Earth’s net primary

                        production of terrestrial biomass (organic matter), was

                        39 percent – 58 billion out of a total of 150 billion metric

                         tons, a level at which we are squeezing out other species. 2

           

            Agriculture, Fisheries, Energy:

                        Some 40 percent of our agricultural land is seriously degraded.

                        Ocean acidification is destroying the basis of the marine food

                        chain.  Of our energy consumption, 89 percent is based on non-

                        renewable sources – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear power. 3

 

            Climate:

                        As of 2005, the planet had warmed by 0.8 degrees Celsius

                        (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit).  We are already seeing draughts,

                        floods, major storms, species extinctions and the rapid melting

                        of glaciers.  Yet a further 1.6 degrees C. (2.9 F.) is inevitable. 4

 

            Competition:

                        Our economic system – capitalism – pits one person against

                        another, and one country against another, for who will own the

                        most material wealth, and we wonder why 194 countries cannot

                        reach a consensus on how to stop the warming of our Earth. 5

 

 

 

 

 

            Technology:

                        We wield dangerous technologies – radioactive weaponry, 

                        nuclear-fueled space exploration, high frequency radio waves,

                        genetic engineering, artificial life, nanotechnology, robotics,

                        and we are now considering geo-engineering our climate.

 

            The Poor:

                        Worldwide, from 1990 to 2009, the number of chronically hungry

                        (“under-nourished”) people increased by 33 percent, from           842

                        million to 1,120 million.  In 2008, malnutrition was a contributing

                        factor in 68 percent of all deaths of children under 5 years. 6 

           

            The rich:

                        In 2010, the world’s 1,011 billionaires together owned $3.5 trillion,

                        the equivalent of 5.1 percent of the world’s $70.2 trillion gross

                        product.  In 2009, our military expenditures were $1.9 trillion,

                        more than half of it spent by our richest country, the United States. 7

 

                        . . .

           

                        Civilization is threatened, and perhaps also the continuation

                        of us humans as the dominant species on the planet.

 

                        Either we let the forces of nature do the trimming of our

                        population – and the poor will die at a much higher rate

                        than the rich – or we control our descent, minimizing

                        the suffering as much as we can, and distributing it fairly.

 

                        We will not be able to solve our problems as long as

                        the rich also want to maintain our present inequality.

 

                        We must share equally in a long-term, super-human effort. 

                        In my opinion, only a global institution can guide us – one

                        person one vote, 690 delegates, each representing 10 million

                        people.  (The U.S. would have 31 representatives, 4.5 percent). 8

 

                        Only then would we be able to focus on cooperation rather than

                        competition, and dispense with any hand that claims to be invisible.

 

                        . . .

 

 

 

 

                        I have many suggestions for the Global Institute.  The

                        distribution of a free bicycle to everyone.  Making available

                        a plot of land to all communities which can cultivate it

                        mimicking nature’s diversity, without poison or degradation.     

 

                        A one-child family policy for all.  All food production to

                        be local.  All producers to own the means of production,

                        and make production decisions based on quality,

                        sustainability and the basic needs of the population.

 

                        A massive public transportation system using renewable

                        energy.  Fossil fuels employed only for the transition to

                        renewable sources of energy, and selected other uses, such as

                        medicine, research, special needs, and emergency situations.

 

                        Everyone to have a substantially equal salary, whether farmers,

                        scientists, politicians, educators or street sweepers.  Basic life

                        resources to be held in common, everyone entitled to them –

                        land, a home, heat, water, food, air, education, health care.

 

                        The rationing of carbon emissions.  In 2007, the 6.6 billions of us

                        emitted 31 billion tons of carbon dioxide, an average of 4.6 tons each.

                        This would be our initial ration, reduced as quickly as possible.  (Per

                        capita, a return trip New York-London emits 3.2 tons CO2-equivalents). 9    

 

                        . . .

           

                        The continuation of civilization is the defining issue of our

                        generation.  The window of time we have in which to

                        act, is diminishing by the hour.  We must stand together.

 

                        Failing to act is to perpetrate omnicide – the greatest crime

                        that can ever be committed.  And, unfortunately, even

                        if we act, there is no guarantee of a successful outcome.

 

                        . . .

 

                        The rich have no clothes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

1.         Stable, renewable flow includes non-flood run-off (base river flow), renewable ground water, and large dams storage capacity. 

 

Total geographically accessible, stable, renewable flow is 12,500 cubic kilometers (Km3). 

 

In 1995, with a population of 5.7 billion, humans appropriated 6,759 Km3 (54 percent) of Earth’s total geographically accessible, stable, renewable flow.

 

Assuming an unchanged average per capita water demand, and adjusting only for the pollution dilution (28 liters per second per 1000 population) required for the additional population (2.3 billion), by 2025, humans will be appropriating 70 percent of the total geographically accessible, stable and renewable river run-off (Hall 2010b, pp. 47-48. Principal original reference is the University of Michigan, 2006-2008).

 

Splitting the difference between 54 and 70 percent gives 62 percent, an approximate figure for 2010, the mid-point between 1995 and 2025.

 

2.            Primary production refers to the synthesis of organic molecules by photosynthetic organisms.  The net primary production is that part of the fixed carbon dioxide which the plant has not used for its own respiration.

 

Humans appropriate a larger proportion of Earth’s biomass than any species has ever done in the history of life.  Yearly, humans appropriate 39 percent of Earth’s terrestrial net primary production – 58 billion out of a total of 150 billion metric tons (Hall 2010b, p. 51. Original reference is the University of Michigan, 2006-2008).

 

3.         Approximately 40 percent of the world’s agricultural land is seriously degraded. 

 

Degradation includes deforestation, desertification, soil erosion, mineral depletion, and chemical degradation (acidification and salinization) (Wikipedia 2010, “Agriculture,” pp. 6, 24 and 34. Original reference is, Sample, Ian, 2007. “Global Food Crisis looms as Climate Change and Population Growth strip fertile Land.” The Guardian. August 31).

 

In 2006, non-renewable sources accounted for 89 percent of our energy consumption (84 percent from oil, coal and natural gas, and 5 percent from nuclear power) (Hall 2010c, p. 1. Original reference is Crane, Hewitt, Edwin Kinderman, and Ripudaman Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil – realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.         Even the most aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation steps now envisioned, will only be able to limit further additions to the committed warming.  They cannot reduce the already committed greenhouse gas warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius (Hall 2010b, pp. 74 and 96. Original reference is Ramanathan, V. and Y. Feng, 2008. Proceeding of the National Academy of Science).

 

5.         The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 16th Conference of the Parties (COP), was held November 29 - December 10, 2010, in Cancun, Mexico.  Of the 194 countries represented, 193 signed a very weak two-part agreement (Bolivia was the lone non-signer).  The first part of the agreement delays a decision on the future of the Kyoto Protocol, and the second part commits (though not legally) all major emitters, including developing countries, such as China and India, to reduce emissions.  The 32-page document formalizes the 2009 Copenhagen Accord within the UNFCCC process. 

 

In December 2009, at the 15th Conference of the Parties, in Copenhagen, Denmark, five countries (Brazil, China, India, South Africa and United States) drafted an Accord which was “taken note of” but not “adopted” by the plenary session (Sheppard 2010, p. 1).

 

6.         Worldwide, from 1990 to 2009, the number of chronically hungry (“under-nourished”) people increased from 842 million to 1,120 million, an increase of 33 percent.  

 

In 2008, malnutrition contributed to 68 percent of the mortality of children under 5 years (6.0 million out of a total of 8.8 million deaths of children under 5 years) (Hall 2010b, p. 50. Original references are the World Summit on Food Security, 2009, and Wikipedia 2010).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.         Currently (2010), worldwide, there are 1,011 billionaires, with an average a net worth of $3.5 billion (Forbes 2010, p. 2). 

 

Using these two figures, the total worth of the 1,011 individuals is (3.5 x 1,011) = $3,539 billion, rounded off to $3.5 trillion.

 

The gross world product (GWP) is the market value of all goods and services produced during one year.  In 2009, the estimated gross world product (purchasing power parity) was $70.17 trillion (United States Government, Central Intelligence Agency 2010, p. 2).

In 2009, world military expenditures were 2.66 percent of the gross world product (World Bank, 2010a, p. 1).

 

Using the estimate of the United States Government for a gross world product, in 2009, of $70.17 trillion, total military expenditures that year were (2.66 x 70.17) / 100 = $1.87, rounded off to $1.9 trillion.

 

For fiscal 2010, U.S. military expenditures were more than $1.0 trillion (Hall 2010a, p. 64. Original references are Wikipedia, 2010; and the World Socialist Website, 2010).

 

8.           Currently (2010), world population is 6.9 billion (Wikipedia 2010, “World Population,” p. 1).

 

Currently (2010), the United States population is 308 million (4.5 percent of the total world population) (Schlesinger 2009, p. 1).

 

9.         In 2007, world population was 6,625 million (Population Reference Bureau 2007, p. 1).

 

In 2007, world CO2 emissions were 4.63 metric tons per capita (World Bank 2010b, p. 1).

 

Using these two estimates, total emissions, in 2007, were (6,625 x 4.63) = 30,674 million tons, rounded off to 31 billion tons of CO2.

 

A return trip London-New York produces 3.2 tons carbon dioxide equivalents per capita  – 1.2 tons of actual CO2, and almost twice as much (2.0 tons CO2-equivalents) due to the increased warming effect of water vapor and gases other than CO2 when released at altitudes at which most large airplanes fly – the upper troposphere (10-13 kilometers above the surface of the earth) (Hall 2007, pp. 17-18; and Hall 2009, p. 25. Original reference is, Monbiot, George. 2007. Heat – how to stop the planet from burning. Cambridge, MA: South End). 

 

 

 

 

 

References

 

Forbes, 2010. “World’s richest People: Bill Gates no longer World’s richest Man.” (Matthew Miller and Luisa Kroll). March 10.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/09. Accessed December 18, 2010.

 

Hall, Francoise,

2007. “Global Warming – an Assessment of possible Solutions.” May 26 (64 pages, unpublished.

 

2009. “Global Warming – pre-Copenhagen.” June 21 (108 pages, unpublished).

 

2010a. “Either Equality among Humans or planetary Devastation.” January 1 (100 pages, unpublished).

 

2010b. “Energy, Water, Food, Climate, and the Capitalism that drives the tragic Trends.” March 16 (102 pages, unpublished).

 

2010c. “One cubic Mile.” (Poem). July 22, 2010 (7 pages, unpublished).

 

Population Reference Bureau, 2007. “World Population Data Sheet – Table: Demographic Data and Estimates for Countries and Regions of the World.”

http://www.prb.org/Publications/DataSheets/2007/2007WorldPopulationDataSheet.aspx. Accessed December 18, 2010.

 

Schlesinger, Robert, 2009. “U.S. Population, 2010: 308 million and growing.” Thomas Jefferson Street blog. December 30.

http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/200. Accessed December 18, 2010.

 

Sheppard, Kate, 2010. “Keepin’ it Deal – Cancun Climate Breakthrough: It’s not perfect, but it’s a Deal.” (Produced by Mother Jones). December 11.

http://www.grist.org/article/2010-12-11-cancun. Accessed December 19, 2010.

 

United States Government, Central Intelligence Agency, 2010. “The World Factbook – Economy: Overview.” November 19.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook. Accessed December 18, 2010.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wikipedia, 2010.

“Agriculture.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated December 16. Accessed December 16, 2010.

 

“World Population.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated December 14. Accessed December 16, 2010.

 

World Bank,

2010a. “Military Expenditure as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).” World Development Indicators – Google public data. Updated December 13.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ms_mil_xpnd_gd. Accessed December 16, 2010.

 

2010b. “Carbon dioxide Emissions per capita.” World Development Indicators – Google public data. Updated December 17.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=en_atm_c. Accessed December 18, 2010.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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