March 19, 2005

Ask the Mosquitoes

The decisions made by the individuals of a species

May have either a beneficial or a detrimental effect

On the longevity of the group. Competition selects

Species as well as individuals, and each species

Depends on its population for its ability to prosper.

Think of a pair of birds driven by competitors to fly

To a nearby island, their descendants then colonizing it.

They have increased their own chances of survival, and

By enlarging the geographical spread of their species,

Have also raised its chances of surviving adversity.

Alternatively, think of a desert plant during a drought.

If it produces fewer seeds, concentrating all its energy

On its own survival, it may well, on an individual level

Come through unscathed, but this success is at the cost

Of a decreased fertility which endangers its species.

The issue of the moment is why at the present time

Major, irreversible decisions made by its members

Are placing Homo sapiens in immediate jeopardy.

Why goals, based almost exclusively on the present

And the immediate past, are oblivious to the future.

Global warming, unprecedented in 10,000 years,

Comes to mind first. Is it wise for Homo sapiens

To cause the extinction of species on the planet

At the rate of 0.6 percent per year (9 species an hour)

Considering that biodiversity is the basis for all life?

Nuclear radiation, intentional or accidental, surely ties

For first place on the list. Homo sapiens hoards, safely

And not-so-safely, over two lethal doses of plutonium

Per person (enough for 11,000,000 Hiroshima bombs)

Much of it in arsenals, and set for automatic detonation.

As if 13,600,000 species worldwide B only 10 percent

Of which identified scientifically B were not sufficient,

People are releasing new life forms into the biosphere

Knowing that some are likely to displace and replace

Existing exquisitely adapted, wild, diverse, local species.

This, in the face of a halving in the past 45 years

Of the land area per person available for crops,

A 75 percent loss in crop diversity over 100 years,

A four-year shortfall in world grain harvest,

And the collapse of many marine ecosystems.

And this also in the face of a fresh water shortage

Due, among many factors, to population increase,

Mis-and inefficient use, pollution, contamination,

Large dams, urbanization, extreme weather, Diversion to livestock and industrialization.

The average ecological footprint of 5 percent

Of the species is ten times that of 80 percent.

Most individuals lack the freedom to formulate

Survival strategies which could make their own

Interests converge with the interests of the group.

The great inequality in the load of disease born

By members of a species, weakens the whole.

Diseases transmitted by organisms which know

Of no political boundaries, affect all. Yet the fit

Between personal and species well-being is missed.

Insects have been around 1,600 times longer than

Homo sapiens. They out-number Homo sapiens

155,000,000,000,000,000 times, and their biomass

Weighs more than that of all of current humanity.

Should we ask them their secret for survival?

Is our kind of intelligence then only for ourselves

At the expense of our peers and our children?

Do some individuals, seeing catastrophe approach,

Prepare for an apocalypse, from which they alone

Would rise out of the pitiful remains of life on Earth?

The History of Life

Years ago:

3,850,000,000 The origin of life. Prokaryotic cells appear spontaneously from pre-biotic organic molecules (p. 186).

3,500,000,000 Stromatolite (organism-topped rocks) ecosystems appear. All organisms are anaerobic. The aerobic pathways of metabolism, which are highly efficient means to obtain and deploy free energy, develop as an auxiliary adaptation (pp. 183-184, 186 and 188).

3,000,000,000 Microscopic organisms swarm in the water. A large fraction of them is generating oxygen through photosynthesis, but the oxygen produced is captured by the ferrous iron which saturates the seas. The resulting ferric oxide settles on the ocean floor and the organisms remain anaerobic (pp. 187-188).

The land is virtually devoid of life. It is uninhabitable. There is no ozone layer in the stratosphere, and the progenitor molecules of oxygen in the air below are too thin to create it. Short-length ultraviolet radiation travels unimpeded to the earth and beats down on the dry basaltic rocks, assaulting organisms which venture on land from the sea (p. 183).

2,800,000,000 The Aoxygen sink@ has partially filled and a few local habitats sustain low levels of molecular oxygen. Aerobic organisms, still single-celled prokaryotes, appear (p. 188).

1,800,000,000 The oxygen level is now about 1 percent of the atmosphere. The first eukaryotic (Ahigher@) organisms appear. They are alga-like forms, forerunners of the dominant photosynthesizers of the modern seas. Their DNA is enveloped in membranes, and the remainder of the cell contains mitochondria and other wellBformed organelles. Soon, single-celled eukaryotes give rise to more complex organisms composed of many eukaryotic cells organized into tissues and organs (pp. 186 and 188).

600,000,000 The first animals evolve in the seas. They are soft-bodied and typically flat (p. 188).

540,000,000 The supply of free oxygen in the atmosphere is near the 21 percent level of today. Animals increase in size and diversify explosively. Within a few million years, every modern phylum of invertebrate animals measuring one millimeter or more in length, and possessing skeletal structures, is represented. A large portion of present-day classes and orders also comes on stage. A strong ozone layer now exists and screens out lethal short-wave radiation (p. 188).

520,000,000 The ACambrian Explosion@ B newly abundant macroscopic animals, large enough to be seen with the naked eye, evolve in a radiative pattern to create the major adaptive types that exist today (p. 186).

500,000,000 Life in the sea has an essentially modern aspect (p. 188).

450,000,000 The first land plants appear. They are probably derived from multicellular algae. Land animals soon follow (p. 190).

400,000,000 Insects originate (p. 210).

440,000,000 Great extinction spasm #1 (in the Paleozoic Era, ending the Ordovician Period) sharply reduces biodiversity. Recovery to the original level of diversity takes 25,000,000 years (pp. 29, 31 and 189).

380,000,000 The pioneer plants form thick mats and low shrubbery widely distributed over the continents. The first spiders, mites, centipedes and insects swarm on the land B small animals truly engineered for life on land. They are followed by the amphibians (evolved from lobe-finned fishes), a burst of land vertebrates (relative giants among land animals), and eventually by reptiles, inaugurating the Age of Reptiles (p. 190).

365,000,000 Great extinction spasm #2 (in the Paleozoic Era, ending the Devonian Period) sharply reduces biodiversity. Recovery to the original level of diversity takes 30,000,000 years (pp. 29, 31 and 189).

350,000,000 Sharks appear in seas throughout the world (p. 113).

340,000,000 Coal forests replace the pioneer vegetation. They are dominated by towering lycophyte trees, seed ferns, tree horsetails, and a great variety of ferns. Life is close to the attainment of its maximal biomass. The forests swarm with insects, including dragonflies, beetles and cockroaches (pp. 189-190).

300,000,000 Insects have radiated into forms nearly as diverse as those existing today. (This is the Carboniferous Period of the Paleozoic Era). They have dominated world terrestrial and fresh water habitats ever since,(pp. 133 and 210).

245,000,000 Great extinction spasm # 3 (in the Paleozoic Era, ending the Permian Period) sharply reduces biodiversity. Life survives more than the equivalent of a total nuclear war. Approximately 87 percent of all marine animal species are extinguished. Most of the coal vegetation dies out, with the exception of the ferns. Reptiles, distant ancestors of humanity, are devastated, only a few surviving. Insects and plants are less affected. Mosquitoes easily survive. The primary agent of destruction seems to have been long-term climatic cooling. Recovery to the original level of diversity from the Permian and Triassic extinctions combined takes 100,000,000 years (pp. 29-31,189-190 and 210).

210,000,000 Great extinction spam #4 (during the Mesozoic Era, Triassic Period) sharply reduces biodiversity. Recovery to the original level of diversity from the Permian and Triassic extinctions combined takes 100,000,000 years (pp. 29, 31 and 189).

100,000,000 The flowering plants sweep to domination of the land vegetation, reconstituting the forests and grasslands of the world (p. 190).

75,000,000 The Age of Reptiles. Dinosaurs arise among a newly constituted, mostly tropical vegetation of ferns, conifers, cycads and cycadeoids (p. 190).

65,000,000 Great extinction spasm #5, which ends the last period of the Mesozoic Era, the Cretaceous Period, and marks the beginning of the Cenozoic Era, sharply reduces biodiversity. The Age of Reptiles ends. The earliest primates and mammals make their appearance. The vegetation is essentially modern. Tropical rain forests are assembling the greatest concentration of biodiversity of all time. Recovery to the original level of diversity takes 20,000,000 years (pp. 29, 31 and 189-190; Encyclopedia).

40,000,000 Global diversity is at its all-time high (pp. 189 and 294).

4,000,000 The earliest known hominids, members of the genus Australopithecus (man-apes), appear. They are bipedal and have an average cranial capacity of 525 cc. (pp. 49 and 52; Encyclopedia).

2,000,000 Humanity makes its appearance. The first member of the genus Homo, Homo habilis, a small gracile species, appears in East Africa. It has an average cranial capacity is 750 cc. (pp. 49, 52 and 189; Encyclopedia).

1,500,000 Homo erectus appears in Africa and Eurasia. Its cranial capacity is 975 cc. It expands its range from Africa to Europe and Asia (pp. 48-49 and 53; Encyclopedia).

550,000 The human mind appears B in the later stages of evolution of the genus Homo (pp. 49 and 186).

250,000 Homo sapiens is fully evolved from Homo erectus. It has a cranial capacity which is close to the present world average of 1350 cc. (pp. 49 and 56; Encyclopedia).

67,000 The transition to Homo sapiens is complete. Fully modern humans become the single surviving hominid species (Encyclopedia).

0 Great extinction spasm # 6, a result of human activity, sharply reduces biodiversity in almost a single generation (pp. 32 and 191).

Notes

(In the Order in which they are mentioned in the Poem)

The History of Life:

Encyclopedia.

Renner, pages as specified (principally pp. ix - 211).

Species:

A species is a closed gene pool that perpetuates itself in nature. It consists of a population whose members are able to inter-breed freely under natural conditions. A conservative estimate of the total number of living species on earth B both described and un-described B is 13,620,000. A reasonable estimate of the number of Arecognized@ species is 1,500,000 - 1,700,000. (United Nations Environment Programme, 1995, cited p. xiv; pp. 38 and 132-133).

Individual vs. Species Survival:

The desert plant Dedeckera eurekensis of the Mojave Desert uses the strategy of fewer seeds in times of stress, putting a premium on longevity rather than reproductive ability. In prolonged droughts, its numbers are limited to a few long-lived but nearly sterile individuals. The alternative strategy, not used by Dedeckera, is to produce many seeds B which will remain dormant until rainfall and then germinate (p. 92).

Global Warming:

The temperature of the earth has essentially been unchanged for 10,000 years. It rose by one degree per century from 1900 to 1975, and 3 degrees per century from 1976 to 2000 B an average for the 20^th century of 1.5 degree Centigrade. Global warming B a result of human activity B is having a devastating effect on all the ecosystems of the planet (ClimatePrediction.net; Democracy Now; Gelbspan, pp. 29, 33 and 183).

The Extinction of Species:

The rate of species extinction per decade is between 1 and 10 percent. The average of all the estimates combined is 6 percent. After each of the five previous greatest extinction spasms B spaced over 400,000,000 years at very roughly 100,000,000-year intervals B evolution required (combining the Permian and the Triassic spasms because they were so close together) an average of about [25,000,000 + 30,000,000 + 100,000,000 + 20,000) / 5) = 35,000,000 years to restore the pre-disaster levels of diversity. Since we depend on an abundance of functioning ecosystems to cleanse our water, enrich our soil, and manufacture the very air we breathe, biodiversity is clearly not an inheritance to be discarded carelessly. Biodiversity is the key to the maintenance of the world as we know it (pp. xviii, xxii-xxiii and 15).

At the above rate of extinction of species B an average of 0.6 percent per year B the number of species lost is (0.6 / 100 x 13,620,000 / 365 / 24) = 9.3 per hour.

Biodiversity:

The diversity of life on the planet. Diversity is the property that makes the resilience of life possible. The restorative power of the fauna and flora of the world as a whole depends on the existence of enough species to penetrate and reinvigorate degenerate, eroded ecosystems (pp. 14-15).

Nuclear Radiation:

The inhaled dose of plutonium which is lethal to half of exposed humans within 30 days, is 0.0002 kilograms (Dumas, pp. 85-86).

In 2003, worldwide, the stockpiles of fissile material derived from both military and civilian reactors totaled 3,700 tons [7,400,000 pounds, or (7,400,000 x 0.373) = 2,760,200 kilograms] of plutonium and highly enriched uranium. The stockpiles continue to expand (Renner, p. 12).

In 2003, therefore, the number of lethal doses for humans, stockpiled worldwide, was (2,760,200 / 0.0002) = 13,801,000,000.

In 2003, the world population was 6,299, 800,000 (U.S. Census). The number of lethal doses was, therefore, (13,801,000,000 / 6,299,800,000) = 2.2 per person on earth.

Assuming that each warhead contains a typical 4.5 kilograms of plutonium (Dumas, pp. 16-17), the 2,760,200 kilograms of plutonium and highly enriched uranium would yield (2,760,300 / 4.5) = 613,377 warheads.

Each of these warheads (containing on average 4.5 kilograms of plutonium), has an explosive yield of 18.06 Hiroshima bombs (Dumas, pp. 16-17). In 2003, therefore, the world stockpiles were the equivalent of (613,377 x 18.06) = 11,077,602 Hiroshima bombs.

In 1998, the total arsenal of humanity was equivalent to 604,900 Hiroshima bombs (Dumas, pp. 16-17).

Only 10 percent of Species identified Scientifically:

The total number of living species on earth, both described and un-described, is by conservative estimate, 13,620,000 (United Nations Environment Programme, 1995, cited p. xiv).

The number of living species which have been described by scientists is 1,413,000 (pp. 134, 255 and 273). The number of Arecognized@ species is somewhat higher B generally estimated to be between 1,500,000 and 1,700,000 (p. xiv).

Therefore, the percentage of species which have been described by scientists is (1,413,000 / 13,620,000) = 10 percent.

New Life Forms:

Genetically-engineered organisms.

Biosphere:

The biosphere is the part of the world in which life exists. Including all the organisms, the biosphere makes up only about one part in 10,000,000,000 of the earth=s mass. Life operates on only 10 percent of that energy from the sun which reaches the surface of the earth. This 10 percent is the portion of the energy which is fixed by the photosynthesis of green plants.

The energy is discounted sharply as it passes through the food web from one organism to another B 10 percent passes to the caterpillars and other herbivores which eat the plants and bacteria, 10 percent of that (1 percent of the original) to the spiders and other low-level carnivores which eat the herbivores, 10 percent of the residue (0.1 percent of the original) to the warblers and other middle-level carnivores which eat the low-level carnivores, and so on upward to the top carnivores. The top carnivores, including eagles, tigers and great white sharks, are big in size but sparse in number. They live on such a small portion of the available energy that they always skirt the edge of extinction, and are the first to suffer when the ecosystem around them begins to erode (pp. 35-36 and 158).

Land Area Available for Crops:

As a species, we are approaching the Malthusian limit. The amount of crop land available per person has decreased as follows:

1950 0.23 hectares

1995 0.12 hectares B and is continuing to decrease (p. xi).

A 75 percent Loss in Crop Diversity in 100 years:

The 75 percent loss was from 1900 to 1995 (Renner, p. 64).

A Four-year Shortfall in World Grain Harvest:

In 2003, for the first time in recorded history, the world grain consumption exceeded harvest for four consecutive years (Gelbspan, pp. 7 and 147-148).

Ecosytem:

An ecosystem is a local community of species (plants, animals, and micro-organisms) together with their physical environment. Examples include a pond, an estuary, and an alpine grassland atop a forested mountain (p. xii).

The Collapse of many Marine Ecosystems:

(Gelbspan, pp. 3, 7 and 63-66).

In the Face of a Fresh Water Shortage:

By 2015, predictions are that 2,900,000,000 people B 40 percent of the world population B will live in countries where the population is stressed for water (Postel, Sandra, Worldwatch Institute, 2002, cited in Renner, p. 6).

The Ecological Footprint of 5 percent of the Species:

The ecological footprint is the amount of productive land needed to supply each person with food, water, energy, living space, commerce, transportation, and waste management. It is composed of where food is grown, petroleum drawn, clothing manufactured, roads built, waste dumped, and public buildings raised (p xi).

In 2001, the average ecological footprint in the United States (population 288,000,000, or 4.7 percent of the total world population of 6,148,100,000), was 5 hectares per person.

That same year, the average ecological footprint in Adeveloping@ countries (population 4,863,800,000, or 79 percent of the total world population of 6,148,100,000), was 0.5 hectare per person.

For the entire current world population to pull itself up to U.S. levels with existing technology, would require two more planets like our Earth (p. xi; United Nations 2003, pp. 250 and 253).

The Great Inequality in the Load of Disease:

In 2002, five major communicable diseases (respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, tuberculosis and malaria) were responsible for 11,500,000 deaths. Most of these deaths are preventable.

Other serious diseases, such as cholera and yellow fever, are spreading.

Pandemics of zoonoses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the West Nile virus, avian flu, swine flu and the Nipah virus, are spreading to humans. The Ebola virus threatens to spread to humans.

Animal prions, such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, Amad cow disease@) and bovine amyloidotic spongiform encephalopathy (BASE), are spreading to humans (Renner, pp. 27, 29, 42-43, 45, 47-50 and 68-70).

Insects:

Arthropoda:

The Phylum Arthropoda is the largest and the most diverse of the animal phyla. It includes insects, spiders, crustaceans, centipedes and millipedes B a total of 875,000 species (p. 133; Encyclopedia).

Insects:

With 751,000 species, insects constitute 86 percent of the Phylum Arthropoda.

Insects originated 400,000,000 years ago. This compares to Homo sapiens which originated only 250,000 years ago. The insects, therefore, have been around (400,000,000 / 250,000) = 1,600 times longer than Homo sapiens (pp. 49, 56 and 210; Encyclopedia).

At present (2005), about 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10¹⁷ ) insects are alive around the world. The world population being 6,466,100,000, insects, therefore, out-number Homo sapiens by a factor of (1,000,000,000,000,000,000 / 6,466,100,000) = 154,700,000,000,000,000 (p. 210).

At nearest order of magnitude, the biomass of insects amounts to 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) kilograms of living matter, somewhat more than the weight of humanity (p. 189, 191 and 210).

Insects, Flowering Plants and Mammals B a Comparison:

Of the total number of scientifically identified living species, insect species account for (751,000 / 1,413,000) = 53 percent. On land, they are the unchallenged dynasty of animals in the small to small-medium range, and have kept that position since late Carboniferous times, more than 300,000,000 years ago (p. 133).

While dwelling in every nook and cranny of plants, insects consume every one of their anatomical parts. They turn the soil around plant roots and decompose dead tissue into the nutrients which plants need for growth. Insects are responsible for the pollination and reproduction of a large fraction of the plant species (p. 133).

So important are insects and other land-dwelling arthropods that, were they all to disappear, humanity probably could not last more than a few months. Most of the amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals would crash to extinction in about the same time (p. 133).

Flowering Plants:

For the past 150,000,000 years, the terrestrial co-rulers of insects in the plant kingdom, have been the angiosperms, or flowering plants. With 248,400 species, flowering plants constitute (248,400 / 1,413,000) = 18 percent of the scientifically identified living species.

Mammals:

With 4,000 species, mammals constitute (4,000 / 1,413,000) = 0.3 percent of the scientifically identified living species (pp. 133, 136 and 207).

References

All page numbers refer to the following:

Wilson, Edward, The Diversity of Life (W. W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 1992/1999.

Except for, as specified:

ClimatePrediction.net: http://www.climateprediction.net/newb.php.html, January 27, 2005.

Columbia Encyclopedia, 6^th Edition, (Columbia University/Gale Group), 2000.

Democracy Now, January 28, 2005.

Dumas, Lloyd, Lethal Arrogance B Human Fallibility and Dangerous Technologies (St. Martin=s, New York. N.Y.), 1999.

Gelbspan, Ross, Boiling Point B How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists are fueling the Climate Crisis, and what we can do to avert Disaster (Basic Books/Perseus, New York, N.Y.), 2004.

Renner, Michael et al, State of the World 2005 B Redefining Global Security, A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society (W. W. Norton, New York, N.Y.), 2005.

United Nations Human Development Programme, Human Development Report 2003 B Millennium Development Goals, A Compact among Nations to end Human Poverty, (Oxford University Press, New York, N.Y.), 2003

United States Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html

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