February 17, 2010

 

After Copenhagen(1)

 

            In the 10,000-year history of human civilization,

            The year which has just ended (2,009 C.E.),

            May be the year marking the beginning of the end.

            A meeting of world-wide leaders, in Copenhagen, failed

            To take steps to halt the destruction of planetary life.

 

            Will people themselves now take action?  That is uncertain. 

            For 300 years, we have been organized into a system which

            Defines private property as sacred, rationality as self-interest,

            Wealth as money, competition as invariably for the common good,

            And the exploitation of workers and nature as a public favor.

 

            Few can now think outside the box of capitalism, marinated

            As we are in a panoply of distractions scientifically designed

            To encourage political passivity, dull the collective conscience, 

            Prevent the expression of common interests in a unified voice,

            Confuse reality and fantasy, and lull through technological marvels.     

 

            Nevertheless, since hope now lies with us, the people,

            Some facts, which previously might have seemed arcane,

            Have suddenly become extremely relevant to our decisions.

            Morality does not wait for countries to sign treaties.

            The right thing to do, is right, no matter how others behave.(2)  

 

            Life on earth first appeared almost 4 billion years ago.

            The first animals evolved in the sea 600 million years ago.

            There have been five mass extinctions since then –

            440, 365, 245, 210, and 65 million years ago.  Average recovery

            Time to the prior level of diversity, was 35 million years.(3)

 

            All these extinctions were due to rapid atmospheric changes.  

            The third, the most extreme, which caused the extinction

            Of 90 percent of the species then on Earth, was initiated by

            Volcanic eruptions in the Arctic, which triggered the melting of

            Methane clathrate crystals in ocean sediment, and runaway warming.

 

 

 

 

 

            Methane clathrate crystals are the frozen form of methane gas.

            On continental shelves, so much organic material rains down on

            The ocean floor that bacterial decomposition is anaerobic,

            Producing methane (CH4) instead of carbon dioxide (CO2).

            At low temperature, the methane freezes into clathrate crystals.

 

            Each methane clathrate crystal is one methane molecule enveloped

            In a crystal of frozen water (ice).  Methane is 25 times more potent

            A greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.  Released into the atmosphere,

            It easily starts a vicious cycle, whereby warming causes more warming. 

            The hot lava, 245 million years ago, triggered this vicious cycle.(4) 

 

            The last of the five extinctions, 65 million years ago, was due to dust.   

            An asteroid struck the Earth.  The aerosols injected into the stratosphere

            Blocked the sunlight for some years, interrupting photosynthesis, and

            Substantially cooling the Earth.  The dinosaurs died, and primates made

            Their appearance – marking the beginning of the Cenozoic Era in Earth history.(5)

 

            There have been no more massive extinctions since then (unless

            One counts that presently under way).  But a minor extinction,

            55 million years ago – like the third one, triggered by the melting

            Of methane clathrate crystals in the ocean sediment – is of special

            Interest.  The trigger was small and the warming spike dramatic.

 

            Sixty million years ago (5 million years after the dinosaurs died),  

            Winter temperature near the poles, was 8 degrees.  The Earth

            Began to warm, as the Indian subcontinent initiated a journey

            Northward through the Indian Ocean, eventually crashing into

            Asia, forming the Himalayan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau.

 

            The journey of the subcontinent lasted 10 million years, and the

            Earth warmed for 10 million years.  When they move (spurred by

            Heat generated from radioactivity inside the Earth), continents slide

            Over the crust of the Earth, producing heat which melts the sediments.

            The release of methane and carbon dioxide warms the atmosphere.

 

            The drift of the Indian subcontinent was unusually rapid

            (20 centimeters a year), and the sediments being melted, brought

            There by large rivers, unusually rich in carbon.  The Earth warmed

            Rapidly as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rose

            By 0.000,1 part per million per year.  (Ours is rising at 2 ppm per year).

           

 

 

 

 

            It is 55 million years ago, in the middle of this 10 million year

            Warming period, that the minor extinction of special interest to

            Us took place.  The sharp warming spike, superimposed on the

            Already rapid warming trend, was 100,000 years in duration. 

            It is called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

 

            The trigger was a regular, minor astronomical event – the warm

            Phase in the oscillation of the Earth’s temperature due to the change

            In its orbit around the sun.  But, added to the already warm  

            Temperature, the small event precipitated the vicious cycle of

            Methane clathrate crystals melting, causing warming, and more melting.

 

            Explosively (in just 2,000 years), the whole of the prior 5 million years

            Worth of carbon stored as methane, was discharged into the atmosphere.

            The Earth warmed by 5 to 9 degrees, almost as much as during

            The third massive extinction, 245 million years ago.  The height of

            The spike was proportional to the size of the ocean methane store.

 

            Almost half the species of foraminifera (deep ocean microscopic shelled

            Organisms) disappeared.  Flora moved poleward thousands of kilometers.  

            The body size, distribution and diversity of terrestrial mammals changed rapidly. 

            Climatic zones (ranges of a given average temperature) moved at the

            Rate of 0.6 kilometers a year.  (Ours are now moving at 6 km/year).(6)

 

            After the spike, the Earth continued warming due to the drift of the

            Indian subcontinent, and by the time the land mass crashed into Asia,

            The Earth’s winter temperature near the poles, was 13 degrees.  Atmospheric

            Carbon dioxide concentration was 1,400 ppm.  Alaska was tropical, home

            To crocodiles.  Sea level was 75 meters (250 feet) higher than it is today.

 

            The collision exposed a lot of fresh rocks, and as they began to weather,

            The Earth’s temperature trend changed from warming to cooling. 

            In weathering, atmospheric carbon dioxide combines with minerals,

            And is carried by rivers to the ocean where it precipitates as carbonate. 

            The removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere cools the Earth. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Within 16 million years (34 million years ago), atmospheric carbon

            Dioxide was down to 450 ppm.  The Earth’s winter temperature near

            The poles was 3 degrees.  Ice sheets began to form, first in the Antarctic,

            Then the Arctic.  Cool temperatures have since prevented the melting of

            Methane clathrate crystals.  The carbon store in sediments has grown.

 

            Ah!  There’s the rub.  The size of the carbon store in methane is huge.  

 

            During the PETM, 3,000 billion tons of carbon were injected

            Into the atmosphere.  Time eventually allowed countervailing forces,

            Such as weathering, to act.  The amount of carbon now present in

            The form of methane in ocean sediment, is 5,000 billion tons. 

 

            During the PETM, carbon was injected into the atmosphere in

            Two bursts, 1,000 years each.  The rate of injection was 5.5 billion

            Tons of carbon dioxide per year.  At present, our rate of injection

            Of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is 50 billion tons per year.(7)

 

            As of now, our burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) has

            Pushed the Earth’s temperature to near the methane clathrate tipping

            Point.  Fossil fuels still underground store 5,000 billion tons of carbon.

            Burning them would make reaching the tipping point a certainty.(8)

 

            The rapid and full release into the atmosphere of the carbon

            Stored as methane in ocean sediment, is the risk we face today. 

 

                                     You and I must decide.

                       

                                     Any reason for inaction

                     Must point to something more valuable

                         than a better future for humanity.

 

                      And what reason could that possibly be?(9)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Graph No. 1: Deep Ocean Temperature during the Cenozoic Era

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reproduced from Hansen, James. 2009. Storms of my grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Illustrations by Makiko Sato. New York, N.Y.: Bloomsbury. Page 153.

 

The Graph represents the temperature of the Earth during the Cenozoic Era (65 million years ago to the present).  The Holocene Epoch (10,000 years to the present) is so minuscule as to not be represented clearly.

 

The Graph traces deep ocean temperature.  However, deep ocean temperature can be assumed to be also winter temperature at polar latitudes, because this is when and where  surface water reaches its maximum density, and sinks to the bottom of the ocean (Hansen 2009, p. 155).

                                                                                                           

 

 

 

 

 

 

References

 

(1)        Hansen, James. 2009. Storms of my grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Illustrations by Makiko Sato. New York, N.Y.: Bloomsbury. 

 

This is the source of all cited geological data.  See particularly, pp. 107, 141, 144, 146-150, 153, 155-163, 234-135 and 258-259.  The graph on p. 153 is reproduced on page 5 of the present document. 

 

Note: The figure quoted on pages 161 and 233, of 3,000 gigatons of carbon injected during the PETM, is correct.  The figure quoted on page 235, of 3,000 billion tons of carbon injected during the PETM, is also correct.  Both statements are the same.  But, on page 235, the equation of 3,000 billion tons of carbon with “3 gigatons” of carbon is incorrect (despite being repeated three times on that page – twice referring to the PETM, and once to “the amount of carbon contained in the sum of oil, gas, and coal fossils today”).  As Hansen correctly states on page 117, one gigaton is one billion (109) metric tons.  Therefore, 3,000 billion tons is 3,000 gigatons. 

 

(2)        Garvey, James. The ethics of climate change – right and wrong in a warming world. New York, N.Y.: Continuum International. Pages 108-109.

Summarized in Francoise Hall, 2010. “Equality among Humans or planetary Devastation.” January 1 (100 pages, unpublished), p. 80.

 

(3)        Wilson, Edward. 1992/1999. The diversity of life. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton. Pages 29-31, 189-190 and 210.

Summarized in Francoise Hall 2005a. “Ask the Mosquitoes,” March 19 (13 pages, unpublished), pp. 3-6.

 

Summarized in Francoise Hall 2005b. “The History of War – with a Critique of Lloyd deMause’s Position that harsh childrearing Modes are the Cause of War.” December 11 (42 pages, unpublished), pp. 1-25.

 

Table 1 summarizes the time for recovery to the prior level of diversity after the five major periods of species extinctions to date.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Recovery Time, Great Extinctions(a)

 

  Great Extinction                 Geological Time Period                        Years to Recovery of

          Spasm                                                                                               prior Diversity

(million years ago)                                                                                             (millions years)        

____________________________________________________________________

 

 440                     Paleozoic Era, ending the Ordovician Period                     25

 

365                      Paleozoic Era, ending the Devonian Period                       30

 

245                      Paleozoic Era, ending the Permian Period                                  - (b)

 

210                     Mesozoic Era, Triassic Period                                             100(b)

 

  65                      Mesozoic Era, ending the Cretaceous Period                    20

 

___________________________________________________________________

Average Time to Recovery                                                                                   35

___________________________________________________________________

(a)         Wilson, Edward. 1992/1999. The diversity of life. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton. Pages 29-31, 189-190 and 210. Summarized in Hall 2005, “Ask the Mosquitoes,” March 19 (13 pages, unpublished), pp. 3-6.

 

(b)         Recovery from the Permian and Triassic extinctions combined took 100 million years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(4)        Methane is 25 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Hall, Francoise, 2009. “Global warming – pre-Copenhagen.” June 21 (108 pages, unpublished), p. 17.

 

(5)        Graph No 1, on page 5 of the present document, represents the temperature of the Earth during the Cenozoic Era (65 million years ago to the present). 

 

The Graph traces deep ocean temperature.  However, deep ocean temperature can be assumed to be also winter temperature at polar latitudes, because this is when and where surface water reaches its maximum density, and sinks to the bottom of the ocean (Hansen 2009, p. 155).

 

(6)        The average rate at which climatic zones (“isotherms”) have been moving poleward  “during the past 30 years,” is 5.6 kilometers (3.5 miles) per year.

Hansen, James. 2009. Storms of my grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Illustrations by Makiko Sato. New York, N.Y.: Bloomsbury. Page 146.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(7)        One ton of carbon (C) is equivalent to 3.67 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2)

McKeown, Alice and Gary Gardner, “Climate Change Reference Guide and Glossary.” In State of the world, 2009 – into a warming world. A WorldWatch Institute Report on Progress toward a sustainable Society. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton). Page 192.

 

Rate of Carbon Injection during the PETM:

During the PETM, 3,000 billion tons of carbon were injected into the atmosphere in two bursts, 1,000 years each.  Assuming that the two bursts were contiguous, the rate was (3000 x 3.67) / 2000 = 5.5 billion tons carbon dioxide per year.

 

Rate of Carbon Injection at Present:

In 2004, anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases totaled 48 to 49 billion tons  carbon dioxide equivalents.  Emissions are increasing, and, in 2010, they can be assumed to be about 50 billion tons CO2-equivalents.

Hall, Francoise, 2009. “Global Warming – pre-Copenhagen.” June 21 (108 pages, unpublished), p. 15.

 

All the figures are for carbon dioxide because, in the atmosphere, methane is oxidized to carbon dioxide in approximately 12 years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(8)        Carbon in the Form of Methane:

At present, the Earth’s store of carbon in the form of methane clathrate crystals and methane bubbles in ocean sediment, is 5,000 billion tons.

Hansen, James. 2009. Storms of my grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Illustrations by Makiko Sato. New York, N.Y.: Bloomsbury. Page 163.  

 

Carbon in the Form of Fossil Fuels:

At present, the Earth’s store of carbon in the form of fossil fuels, is 5,000 billion tons.

 

On p. 161, Hansen explains that the injection of about 3,000 billion tons of carbon injected into the atmosphere during the PETM, was “almost as much as the carbon in all of today’s oil, gas, and coal.”  Page 235 refers to the same subject but contains errors (See References Note 1, above).  Data from that page were not used in the present poem.

 

Ellen Thomas, Professor of Earth and Environmental Science at Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, calculates that, should humans burn all the world’s fossil fuels reserves in a short period of time, atmospheric carbon dioxide would rise by a factor eight.  Each doubling in atmospheric CO2 produces a rise in the Earth’s mean surface temperature of 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius (3-9 degrees Fahrenheit).  Three doublings would produce a temperature rise of 4.5 to 15 degrees Celsius.

 

Table 2 summarizes the amount carbon stored in world fossil fuels reserves.

 

Table 2: Carbon in World Fossil Fuel Reservoirs(a)

 

                            Fossil Fuel                           Amount of Carbon

                                                                        (billion metric tons)

 

                        Coal                                                     4,000

                        Oil                                                          500

                        Natural Gas                                           500

                        __________________________________________

                        Total                                                    5,000

                        __________________________________________

(a)         Thomas, Ellen. Undated. “Greenhouse Gases and the Carbon Cycle.”  http://ethomas.web.wesleyan.edu/ees123/carbcyc.htm. Accessed February 19, 2010.

 

                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(9)        Garvey, James. The ethics of climate change – right and wrong in a warming world. New York, N.Y.: Continuum International. Page 112.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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