October 24, 2010
A fanciful Promise
On December 18, 2009, in Copenhagen, at the United Nations
Convention on Climate Change, 15th Conference of the Parties,
President Obama declared his nation’s goal of a 17 percent reduction
in emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020, as compared to 2005.
In 2005, the country’s emissions totaled 7.1 billion metric tons
of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq.). The pledge implied a
reduction of 1.2 billion tons, down to a total of 5.9 billion tons
in 2020. The U.S. was severely criticized for its low target.1
In 2005, U.S. energy consumption was 100.4 quadrillion (1015)
British Thermal Units (known as “quads”). Of this
total, 22.4 quads were derived from coal, the burning
of which emitted 2.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
Half of 2.2 is 1.1. Half of the coal burned, in 2005, therefore,
produced 1.1 billion tons of CO2, an amount about equal to the
pledged 1.2 billion tons. What if the U.S. halved its coal burning?
What would it take to replace the half of the coal not burned?
Alternative sources of energy, such as nuclear, solar or wind,
are best suited for the production of electricity. The energy
derived from (22.4 / 2) = 11.2 quads of coal, if provided by an
alternative source, would probably be in the form of electricity.
Power plants convert one quad of energy from coal into 11 billion
watt-hours (gigawatt-hours, GW-h) of electricity continuously
Generated for one year. The 11.2 quads of coal energy translate
into an annual flow of (11.2 x 11) = 123.2 GW-h of electricity.2
A typical nuclear power plant has a capacity of 1 GW and
operates at 75 percent efficiency. The power it produces
during the course of one year (6.6 trillion watt-hours) serves,
on average, the consumption of 680,000 U.S. homes.3
Using such nuclear power plants (with a capacity
of 1 GW and operating at 75 percent efficiency), the
production of 123.2 GW-h of electricity, would require the
construction of (123.2 / 0.75) = 164 nuclear power plants.
These 164 nuclear power plants would meet
the 2005 consumption. The economy will grow,
2005-2020. What is the additional energy required
due to economic expansion from 2005 to 2020?
From 2005 to 2020, the real gross domestic product
(real GDP) – the GDP adjusted for inflation – is expected
to grow at an average rate of 2.4 percent annually, a
total growth of 36.1 percent during the 15-year period.4
Energy consumption is not expected to grow as fast. A
growth of only 0.5 percent annually is expected, 2008-2035.
Applying this figure to the 15-year period, 2005-2020,
energy consumption would increase by 7.5 percent.
Factors which lower the energy intensity of the economy
include greater energy efficiency and conservation, the mix of
activity both among the sectors of the economy and within
each sector, and a geographical change in population density.
With the increased use of less carbon-intensive energy sources,
carbon emissions will not grow as fast as energy consumption.
By 2035, as compared to 2008, carbon emissions are expected
to have increased by 5 percent less than energy consumption.
Assuming, generously, that, by 2020, as compared to 2005,
carbon emissions will have increased 5 percent less than energy
consumption, from the point of view of emissions, it would
be as if energy consumption, in 2020, were 5 percent lower.
It would be as if 5 percent less energy were needed
by 2020. Instead of increasing by 7.5 percent,
2005-2020, energy consumption would increase
by only 7.5 - (5 x 7.5) / 100 = 7.1 percent.
An increase of 7.1 percent in energy consumption,
2005-2020, means the need for an additional
(7.1 / 100.4) x 100 = 7.1 quads of energy – or its
equivalent in electrical power, (7.1 x 11) = 78.1 GW-h.
In turn, it implies the need for an additional (78.1 / 0.75) =
104 nuclear power plants. Thus, the promised decrease
in emissions of 1.2 billion tons CO2, 2005-2020, requires
the construction of (164 + 104) = 268 nuclear power plants.
To fulfill its promise, the U.S. would have to build 27 plants
a year for the next ten years – one plant every two weeks.
For comparison, as of 2009, the U.S. had 104 nuclear plants
In operation. No new plant has been built since the 1970’s.
Using solar thermal plants, each with a capacity of 0.01 GW
and operating at 30 percent efficiency, the need could also
be met by (123.2 + 78.1) / ( 0.01 x 0.30) = 67,100 plants –
building 6,710 plants per year for 10 years, 18 a day for 10 years.
Using wind turbines, each with a capacity of 0.0025 GW
and operating at 30 percent efficiency, the need could also
be met by (123.2 + 78.1) / (0.0025 x 0.30) = 268,400 turbines –
building 26,840 turbines per year for 10 years, 74 a day for 10 years.5
In reality, to decrease its emissions of greenhouse
gases, the nation will undertake a mix of measures.
This thought experiment shows, however, that the effort
implied by the pledge, far exceeds that likely to be achieved.
To date, the Senate has not approved the Waxman-Markey
bill calling for a 17 percent emissions reduction, 2005-2020.
And President Obama has made another pledge – a
further 63 percent reduction by 30 years later, 2050.
The Department of Energy expects energy-related CO2 emissions
to increase by an average of 0.3 percent annually, 2008-2035.6
President Obama is not the only world leader
to have made a promise unlikely to be kept.7
Whither climate change negotiations?
Notes
1. The addition to the atmosphere of approximately 7.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide leads to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of one part per million (Rielke, pp. 10 and 136).
2. A well-designed modern power plant can convert 9,500 BTU’s of energy from coal into 1,000 watt-hours of electricity (9.5 BTU = 1 W-h). Most plants, however, need 10,370 BTU’s from coal to obtain 1,000 watt-hours of electricity (10.370 BTU = 1 W-h).
The number of hours in a year is (24 x 365.25) = 8,766 hours
This means that:
11.2 x 1015 BTU’s = 11.2 x 109 x 106 / 10.370 x 8,766 watt-hours of electricity
= 11.2 x 106 x 109 / 90,909
= 123.2 x 109
= 123.2 GW-h of electricity.
3. There are (24 x 355.25) = 8,766 hours in a year. The production of 0.75 x 109 watt-hours for one year equals (0.75 x 8,766) = 6,575 x 109 watt-hours, or 6.6 x 1012 watt-hours.
This 6.6 trillion watt-hours of electricity continuously generated for a year would serve the consumption of about 900,000 homes in the northeastern United States, or 460,000 homes in the southern part of the country.
4. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the growth of the real gross domestic product, in percent, as follows:
2006 +3.7
2007 +2.0
2008 +1.2
2009 -2.5
2010 +2.2
2011 +1.9
2012, 2013, 2014 +4.4 each year
2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 +2.4 each year.
_______________________________________________
Total 36.1
Average annual percent growth: (36.1 / 15) = 2.4.
5. In 2009, the installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 35.5 billion watts (GW). If, as assumed in the poem, each turbine were to have a capacity of 0.0025 GW and operate at 30 percent efficiency, then this would equal (35.5 / 0.0025 x 0.30) = 47,333 turbines (Wikipedia 2010 “Wind Power in the United States,” pp. 1 and 8).
6. See reference under United States Government, Department of Energy, 2010. “Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035,” Emission Projections.
7. Roger Pielke, Jr. summarizes the emissions reduction goal and the likelihood that the goal will be met, for each of four countries:
United Kingdom (pp. 84-88):
Goal (2008): A 34 percent reduction by 2022, as compared to 1990.
Effort needed: By 2022, 60 new nuclear power plants, or their equivalent power from a zero-carbon alternative.
Japan (pp. 88-92):
Goal (2009): A 25 percent reduction by 2020, as compared to 1990.
Effort needed: All of the following: 15 new nuclear power plants; an increase of 55 percent in solar power generation; an increase in thermal power from both gas and biomass mixed combustion; 90 percent of new vehicles sold to be hybrid or electric; all houses, new and existing, to have heat insulation and meet mandatory energy conservation standards; the price of carbon dioxide to be $80 per ton, compared to the current price of $7 per ton).
Australia (pp. 92-99):
Goal: A 5 percent reduction by 2020, as compared to 2000.
Effort needed: By 2020, 57 new nuclear power plant, or their equivalent power from a zero-carbon alternative.
United States (pp. 99-102):
Goal: A 17 percent by 2020, as compared to 2005.
Effort needed: By 2020, 342 nuclear power plants, or their equivalent power from a zero-carbon alternative.
References
Principal Reference:
Pielke, Roger, Jr., The climate fix – what scientists and politicians won’t tell you about global warming. New York, N.Y.: Perseus/Basic Books.
Pp. 10 and 136 (The addition to the atmosphere of 7.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide leads approximately to an increase in carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration of one part per million);
Pp. 63 and 97 [One quad of energy derived from coal is equivalent to about 11 gigawatts (GW-h) of electricity maintained for one year];
Pp. 81 and 107 (No country has yet figured out how to decarbonize its economy at a pace beyond historical rates, much less the very aggressive rates needed to achieve ambitious emissions reduction targets);
Pp. 84-88 (United Kingdom); Pp. 88-92 (Japan); Pp. 92-99 (Australia);
Pp. 99-102 (United States: assumption of an 0.5 percent annual increase in energy consumption; new nuclear power plants: 189 to meet the 2006 demand + 153 to meet the additional demand by 2020 = a total of (189 + 153) = 342 nuclear power plants by 2020);
Pp. 102-107 (China, India, Europe, the Others in the global Top 20, and the Bottom 193);
P. 112 [Nuclear power stations (like the Dungeness B, in Kent, on the southeast coast of England), solar thermal plants (like Cloncurry, in Queensland, Australia), and wind turbines (of the type being installed in West Texas, U.S.);
P. 113 (In 2006, the United States consumed 99.2 quads of energy, 22.5 quads being obtained by burning coal);
P. 114 (United States, equivalent energy infra-structure: Energy consumed, 2006: 99.2 quads. Ten percent of this consumption = 9.9 quads. One year replacement of 9.9 quads: 145.5 nuclear plants, 33,067 solar thermal plants, or 131,470 wind turbines); P. 115 (United States, 2009: 104 nuclear reactors in operation, 31 under construction or planned);
Pp. 250-251 (A one GW capacity coal generator operating a 75 percent efficiency, produces 6.6 billion kilowatt-hours in a year, equivalent to the amount of electricity consumed by about 900,000 homes in the Northeast but only 460,000 homes in the South).
Other References:
Answers.com. 2010. “What is the Difference between Watt and Watt-hour?”
http://wiki.answers.com. Accessed October 31, 2020.
P. 2 [Watt is power, energy burned per second (one joule per second)];
[Watt-hour removes the “per second” from watts. It turns watt into joules. It should really be called joule. A watt-hour is the amount of energy equivalent to a power of 1 watt (now really a joule) generated for one hour].
Ask A Scientist, undated. “Coal to Electricity.” Physics Archive.
http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/phy00/phy00211.html. Accessed October 27, 2010.
P. 2 (Well-designed, modern power plants can make one kilowatt-hour (1,000 watt-hours of electricity) using 9,500 BTU’s of energy from coal).
Google, undated. “Definitions of real GDP on the Web.”
http://www.google.com. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 1 (Real GDP is the level of GDP after changes in inflation have been taken into account).
Hall, Francoise, 2009. “Global Warming – pre-Copenhagen.” June 21 (108 pages, unpublished).
P. 78 (United States Emission, 2005: 7.26 billion tons CO2-eq.);
P. 79 (The U.S. has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Were it to do so, its assigned greenhouse gases reduction goal would have been 7 percent, 1990-2012);
(The 1,200 page Waxman-Markey bill passed the House of Representatives on June 27, 2009, by a vote of 219-212. The bill calls for a 17 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, 2005-2020. According to calculations by the European Union, this is equivalent to a 12 percent reduction by 2020, calculated from the internationally accepted year of 1990 as the base year).
(Had the United States ratified the Kyoto Protocol, its assigned reduction goal would have been of 7 percent, 1990-2012. Assuming that the country had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and met its commitment of a 7 percent reduction, 1990-2012, the Waxman-Markey bill calls for another 5 percentage points reduction by 2020).
(The bill also calls for an 83 percent reduction in greenhouse gases emissions by 2005-2050).
Huffington Post, 2009. “Obama in Copenhagen Speech: full Text.” December 18.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/18. Accessed October 28, 2010.
P. 2 (“I’m confident that America will fulfill the commitments that we have made: cutting our emissions in the range of 17 percent by 2020, and by more than 80 percent by 2050, in line with final legislation”).
Pew Center on Global Climate Change, undated. “Coal and Climate Change Facts.”
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/coalfacts.cfm. Accessed October 24, 2010.
P. 2 (The United States produces close to 2 billion tons of CO2 per year from coal-burning power plants).
United States Government,
Congressional Budget Office, 2005. “The Budget and economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015.” January. Chapter 2, “The economic Outlook.”
http://www.cbo.gov/doc/cfm?index=6060&type=0&sequence=3. Accessed October 27, 2010.
P. 2 (Table 2-1. “CBO’s economic Projections for Calendar Years 2004 to 2015.” Real GDP, percentage change, 2006 = +3.7 percent).
Congressional Budget Office, 2008. “The Budget and economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018.” January. Appendix C. “Projections for 2008 to 2018.”
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/97xx/doc9706/AppendixC.9.2.shtml. Accessed October 27, 2010.
P. 1 [Table C-1. “CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018.” Real GDP, percentage change, 2007 (actual) = +2.0 percent].
Congressional Budget Office, 2009. “The Budget and economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019.” January.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/docs9957/01/07-Outlook.pdf. Accessed October 24, 2010.
P. 3 [Table 1. “CBO’s economic Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2019.” Real GDP, percentage change, 2008 (estimated) = +1.2 percent].
Congressional Budget Office, 2010. “The Budget and economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020.” January.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/01/26-Outlook.pdf. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 24 [Table 2-1. “CBO’s economic Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2020.” Real GDP, percentage change, 2009 (estimated) = -2.5 percent; 2010 (forecast) = +2.2 percent; 2011 (forecast) = +1.9 percent; 2012-2014 (projected annual average) = +4.4 percent; 2015-2020 (projected annual average) = +2.4 percent].
Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
Undated (a). “Table H.4co2. World Carbon dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Coal, 1980-2006.”
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/International/carbondioxide.htm. Accessed October 24, 2010.
P. 1 (United States, 2005: 2,162.38 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the consumption of coal).
Undated (b). “Table 1.3. Primary Energy Consumption by Source, 1949-2009 (Quadrillion BTU).”
http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb0103.html. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 2 (United States, 2005: 100.445 quadrillion BTU’s).
2010. “Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035.” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/intensity_trends.html. Accessed October 25, 2010.
Energy Intensity Trends: P. 2 [Energy consumption (is expected to) increase at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent from 2008 to 2035; The ratio of carbon emissions to energy consumption in 2035 is (expected to be) 5 percent lower than its 2008 value].
Emissions Projections: Pp. 1-2 [In 2035, energy-related CO2 emissions total 6,320 million metric tons, about 6 percent higher than in 2007 and 9 percent higher than in 2008. On average, emissions (are expected to) grow by 0.3 percent per year from 2008 to 2035, compared with 0.7 percent per year from 1980 to 2008].
Environmental Protection Agency, 2010. “U.S. greenhouse Gas Inventory.” http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usgginventory.html. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 1 [U.S. greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas.” Total, 2005: 7,130 teragrams (1012) CO2-eq. (which equals 7.1 billion tons CO2-eq.)].
Wikipedia, 2010.
“Energy in the United States.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated September 26. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 1 [The United States . . . (used) 100 quadrillion BTU’s in 2005].
“List of solar thermal Power Stations.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated October 22. Accessed October 25, 2010.
“Nuclear Power in the United States.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated October 23. Accessed October 27, 2010.
P. 1 (In February 2010, the Obama administration approved an $8 billion loan guarantee for the construction of two nuclear reactors in Georgia. If the project goes forward, these would be the first plants to start construction in the United States since the 1970’s).
“Watt.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated October 22. Accessed October 24, 2010.
Pp. 2-3 (A measure of power, rate of doing work; A typical coal powered power station produces around 0.65 GW).
“Wind Power in the United States.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki. Updated October 23. Accessed October 25, 2010.
P. 1 (At the end of 2009, the installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 35.5 GW).
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